weatherwiz

Looks like surface temperatures should push close to...perhaps even a few ticks above 80 with sfc dews climbing into the 70's. Those two alone are going to yield llvl lapse rates a bit steeper than we would usually see in this type of environment and not too beat this dead horse but much of this happening during peak heating hours is pretty huge.

Looks like the RPM (12z run anyways) has coastal CT sustained 40-50+ knots?

It's really all about mixing. That's what is a little bit bizarre IMO about this is how well some of the models are mixing. Here is 12z BAM bufkit for BDL. I'm still pretty impressed at these CAPE values given the shear. Also note that little area of drying aloft..but NAM has been pretty wonky with dry air aloft so not sure if that is accurate. Would have to investigate further

Yeah I think this setup is a bit different from some of our previous setups. Ingredients we lack in those are present this go around

there is definitely some room statewide for 50-60 mph gusts. Not sure that will pan out or if it will but this look is a bit concerning for CT...especially with potential for tornadoes. That''s n awful lot of llvl CAPE being modeled given these shear parameters. But even putting aide tornado potential...those CAPE values alone would be enough to transport down very strong winds...especially if the LLJ does max out over us. One underrated aspect going for us is this all happens during peak heating hours.

IDK..there does seem to be a window where we could get gusts 50-60+ mph across a large part of CT. NAM soundings...well at least 3km NAM actually don't really have much...if any...of an inversion which is actually quite bizarre I would think. But it looks like we maximize the LLJ during peak heating (yes it's clouds but that is important) and there looks to be potential for quite a bit of convection.

I've made several posts on the tornado threat but I don't think I've mentioned about tonight but there is potential overnight as well.

airplanes being tossed into the Atlantic

Getting a little concerned about the tornado potential in CT tomorrow...models are spitting out quite a bit of CAPE...especially within the lowest 3km. NAM bufkit soundings showing >300 J of 3km CAPE and over 1000 J of 6km CAPE...those are quite high given the amount of shear. I'll also add this...we may see llvl lapse rates steep enough to where these winds can certainly overperform...especially with any convective elements.

This situation that we're dealing with is why I am legit scared of a major hurricane impacting us. I mean think about it...our window of knowing like 100% certain that we will get nailed is like what...maybe 8-12 hours? Sure we can have an idea it will happen and make necessary preparations but there is still that uncertainty...by the time we really are certain it's too late to really act. It would be an absolute disaster, especially if you ever had to talk evacuations. How many people are really going to take something seriously when the main wording is "we still don't know"?

certainly don't disagree with that. Outside of perhaps some gusty winds and showers with could give some a nice little drink you guys out in the east are going to be shafted

Yeah I think at this juncture anyone looking for or thinking we'll see widespread heavy rainfall is misguided. There will be some heavy rain...just not as widespread as some are thinking. At this juncture the greatest concern is 1) Winds and power outage potential 2) Major coastal flooding 3) Risk for isolated tornadoes

6-10 threats

Maybe it's time for a specific thread about Isaias?

Oh **** Check out this 18z NAM hodo at BDL midnight Tuesday night. That's a crap ton of CAPE given those shear parameters

hmmm not sure why it didn't post the loop but I was tying to post a 11 second loop from radarscope.

I know

Ryan was all over that. IMG_4477.mov

true but with clouds and trees those areas get darker a bit more quickly. I chased up that way a few times and one time was near dark and we encountered a road that was littered with debris and live wires

Would never chase up that way lol. Way too many trees around and with it getting towards sunset that is a recipe for disaster

The really only thing to watch is probably that batch of storms entering NW NJ. Outside of that I don't think we really see anything develop. Storms have certainly tried to develop but without a trigger or larger-scale forcing it's just not happening. But we'll starting losing ingredients in the next 2-3 hours.

SUPERCELL COMPOSITE OF 16 AND SIG TOR OF 3....DAMNNNNN. Fook you lack of trigger

Nice looking cell moving into NW CT

the problem is, despite the sun ripping out, is there just isn’t much in the way of forcing or large-scale lift. We have all the ingredients needed for severe wx and for the possibility of a tornado...except lift and we’ll that is kinda important. Maybe differential heating or if the warm front can hang around a bit...that could be a focal point?

Oh damn lol. This is where I am right now but about to head back home.