weatherwiz

It may rip in the NW Hills Monday evening per the GFS...pretty damn good soundings with some great lift. 

This is one of the more bizarre thermal profile modelings I can remember. Do models take into account latent heat release at all? I know sneaky warm layers aren't uncommon but some of what's being modeled is a little head scratching 

11 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

1-3 for New York City? Lol you guys are so biased!

biased...more like intelligent. Ray is a phenomenal forecaster who uses absolutely zero bias in his forecasts. He devotes a great deal of time into making (and what usually end up being) very solid calls. Go stick to your ridiculous snow maps and let the people who actually forecast based on science/meteorology do their thing. 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea and we are also nitpicking broadness and placement of mid levels from a subpar model too.

yup lol. 

oh well...time to go home...no traffic either  

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not over your fanny:

I guess looking closer on the cod map there could be another closed contour over LI...anyways the entire thing is rather broad and that's going to keep the lift much further north. 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It tracks it along LI. 

ehhh...it's kinda a broad circulation so hard to really tell where it exactly tracks over but Branford is close enough to LI  just a ferry trip away 

Just now, dendrite said:

GFS is bringing the midlevel goodies up here.

Tracks H7 and H85 over my fanny  

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

GFS gets the 0c 850 past the MA/NH border. Oomph

Should kinda be expected though with that push of WAA...it's just a matter of how the column responds post WAA regime. 

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

I've also been watching Flagstaff AZ webcams. Decent snow before, breezy as well.

Flagstaff I think is very underrated...they can get crushed with snow and wind. 

Wish I was in western SD though...sustained winds 25-35 mph with gusts 50-70 mph...reminds me of watching Little House on the Prairie...and reading the books. Maybe next year I'll do storm chasing for a week out west and then take another week for snow chasing and go to a place that's going to get a nasty blizzard in the Plains 

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hamden has climates within its own town, seasons in seasons. You can be raining and 37 on RT 10 at 100ft elevation with zero pack and heavy snow and 32 on gaylord mt road at 600ft elevation. Those areas of hamden deep in the woods probably avg 10-15" more than downtown hamden.

Hamden is probably the best spot to be in CT for extreme weather lol. "F4" in 1989, another tornado last year, downbursts, macrobursts, they had that historic flooding, the 40'' of snow, more flooding.

Someone should get thundersnow too!!! 

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Looks reasonable as of now Wiz.  Nice work.

Thanks! 

I probably would have waited until today to do a map as opposed to yesterday but I knew I wouldn't have had time to do a full-out blog post lol. I'm hoping not to have to tweak this anymore. 

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

5 months and 2 days to 5/1/20!

The more snow we get, the faster the winter goes  

I'm pretty excited...this is exciting. Unfortunately I'll miss out on the big snows at BDL b/c I'll probably stay at a hotel in Branford Sunday so I can get to work Monday but I'll be off antibiotics tomorrow so I can chillax in my hotel room sunday night watching the Pats/Bruins and drink this awesome double IPA I bought a few weeks ago I've been dying to try. 

WINTER!!!!!!!!

I'm really liking the WAA thump here...also becoming a bit more impressed with the banding with round 2. I know we'll have to overcome those warm layers, but I think dynamic cooling is going to help big time and the lift in the banding is going to be pretty intense. Decided to increase from yesterday.

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This is a powdery snow inland 

I don't think it's that powdery in CT....maybe, maybe at the very onset of the WAA thump. On MOnday though thermals are a little too warm for powder here I think 

Even seeing some MAUL looks on some soundings...makes sense with some steep lapse rates involved. I'd watch for convective elements here which can really make for some localized white pasting fun 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Now maybe the slightest tick colder again at 66h? 

Lol. Basically noise. 

Seems like dynamic cooling perhaps is trying to really get going and trying to work some magic. 

We're super close here in northern CT...riding along the lines of an isothermal paste job. Kevin without power for weeks 

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Like these probabilities 

I love these probability graphics. Wish Cod would add these to their list of products. 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mid levels are warm verbatim. The WAA with part 1 brings a healthy melting layer above H85 down there.

ughhh yeah you're right. Introduces perhaps the possibility of some light (but maybe a tad prolonged) duration of FZDZ? 

What also has me worried here with part 1 and more robust totals is there really isn't much to keep the colder air locked in at the llvls...typically not a good signal for bigger thumps down in CT. 

I think the NAM would even smoke much of CT with round 2. that's some pretty impressive frontogenesis which traverses the state in association the the CBD. 

33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Point being Wiz that the Euro has been lead, solid and consistent with features besides snow maps 

Sure has!! 

26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If you draw a map with anything less than a foot for I84, I will tie you up with your mouth open and feed you McDonald’s cheeseburgers over and over again....until you gain 10lbs and vomit.

Go big or get fat. 

Unfortunately gaining weight has very little to do with just "eating food". 

My map I posted yesterday had 3-6'' for much of the state and 2-4'' along immediate shore...this just accounted for WAA snow though. I may update and include a 6-12'' zone up near the MA border. 

It's the stupid POS ridiculous God awful should be wiped from model guidance snow maps which are leading to the stuff like "euro being the outlier" and "the notion of significant differences between the models". 

The upper-level features on the GFS and Euro...and all other guidance suggests a fairly robust storm here...while there are some differences in the surface evolution and what transpires post-WAA regime all models suggest robust activity Monday...obviously where depends on what many have already discussed. 

People are going to drool over the Euro showing 15-25''...call the GFS garbage b/c it only shows 10-15' and then be all upset and call the storm a bust b/c they didn't get 15-25'' and say the GFS "actually scored a win b/c it hit totals right"...when in reality all model guidance did a great job with this...just minor details in smaller-scale features. 

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Euro still a great front end dump for sne

I like the front end thump for us...it should rip for several hours Sunday afternoon. 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not really a fire hose. I don’t see much banding either with the first part. It’s more of a WAA thump. After that’s over it goes to some lighter precip. That could be rain, sleet/freezing rain, or lighter snows depending on where you are. Then later Monday and Monday night and mix goes to snow. That’s when there may be some banded nature to the snow as the mid level lows track favorably. I’m wondering if Monday night is one of those deals where QPF is undermodeled.  That’s a good erly flow with favorable mid levels. 

This should be pinned in the thread lol...pretty perfect summation of how this will transpire.