weatherwiz

Hopefully we can get strong enough mixing Wednesday and Thursday but a sneak look at some soundings shows there may be a bit of an inversion between like 850 and 925 which could prevent deeper mixing. Friday would probably offer best shot at mixing ahead of cold front but also more in the way of clouds. May also have a quite a bit of high-level clouds Wednesday and Thursday. 70 would be sick though!!

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Severe season is easy in SNE. Almost always expect under performers...a few EF0 warm front spinners, maybe a rogue EF1 and then a lot of marginal hail and rotting branches down from 40 knot gusts. 

About twice or three times a decade we get a real sweet setup. We’re like the mid-Atlantic coast for snow events when it comes to severe wx. 

Hopefully you get to chase out in the plains. 

I was all set to go last year then COVID happened. Last season sucked anyways in the Plains...in fact, it's been relatively lackluster for the better part of the last decade outside of 2011 and another year or two. I am hopeful for this season though with the moderate La Nina with active southern stream. SSTA's recovering quickly in the Gulf too. Obviously not going to the Plains there since we're not out of the woods yet, but going next season for sure.

Maybe this summer we can get some potent squall lines. 

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Your posts are like trying to run a snow plow business in Southern MD. It's just not happening, man.

Next thing really is severe wx season...crap under two months away now and not even prepared yet. Time flying fast. Only one more full month to go until we're into severe season

Been insanely busy but what I'm currently thinking. More detail here https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2021/02/thursday-february-18-2021-winter-storm.html

I do have some concerns about drier air in the northern part of the state. The HP does depart so we will eventually lose the influence of the northerly flow at the sfc but combination of never really fully saturating and best lift remaining south I think could hurt northern part of state.

Pretty impressive signal though for a heavy WAA thump into southern CT.

Issue too is ratios are going to be pretty trash...with exception of under the goods and even then nothing terribly impressive. I think the majority of the snow will be slow accumulating crap...then lots of freezing drizzle...maybe sleet evening and overnight then some lighter snows when some stronger lift comes through at times. 

What a fun storm 

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

1.4" at BDL, 15:1 ratios last hour.

Glad you got into work!

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes I agree. His ratios are likely pretty close to accurate. I bet 20 to 1 blower at minimum in this band. 

Ratios are certainly close to that. I’m down in Bethel and the snow growth and flakes are beautiful. About as perfect of dendrites as you can get. 

Incredible snow growth in Bethel...been ripping for the past hour-plus 

This is just strictly going to be a nowcasting situation. 

The 0z HRRR seems oddly warm

Pretty far southeast with the banding signal...like really far SE. keeps it super close to low. :scared: 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok...I hated to press you, but I liked that response Wiz. 

These setups do scare me. We've seen in the past similar situations where within 72-84 hours there will be slick ticks northwest and then boom...getting closer to and inside 48 hours this reverses. Usually happens with one model, we all discount it as an "outlier" then others follow suit lol. Not saying that's going to happen here but that's always in the back of my mind with these. If one of the Euro/GFS come out and are noticeably SE...I'm going to be quite scared. Again, don't think it happens but certainly a flag that needs to be kept in mind.

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So if it’s SE we lose bro...so maybe you should have gone conservative?  

if it's far enough southeast but I don't foresee that happening. I think there's alot favoring heavy banding traversing much of CT. 

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We held with our 3-6/6-10 for a first call but I totally agree with you. This one is really close to being an outstanding event across CT. Hope we get there tonight or early tomorrow across guidance.

These particular setups have such high bust potential...and in both directions. With these setups its you ever get nailed or get shafted...no in between. If I had a fear with this...it would be intense convection in the warm sector sort of robbing moisture or contributing to the sfc low ending up more SE. 

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So???  What’s your call?  Is this something special?  Or just a glitch? 

I would tend to think there is going to be one hellacious band with this. Like with last weeks storm and the one in December, there is going to be a pretty impressive baroclinic zone...perhaps even more impressive. Could be looking at +9C to +12C air in the warm sector with -5 to -6C at 850 over us. 50-60 knots of inflow into the CCB. I think sometimes the degree of banding in these types of setups is "undervalued" from the initial forecasting practices. 

The million dollar question is how far northwest does this banding get but there seems to be a pretty good signal for us here in CT. If the whole organization was several hours earlier (especially with the closing of the 700 low) I would think we could see another foot-plus state wide. 

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I don’t know what’s up with the 3km back to back runs showing that

it's spitting out 40-50dbz lol.

Sometime I like double or triple check these point-and-click soundings...sometimes they load some totally funky and wonky charts

Is this real  

Still looks like a pretty solid hit for much of CT. That gradient though...yikes. 

0z HRRR looking pretty solid along and east of 84

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think it would actually hit eastern areas harder than the qpf showed. H5 looked a little better. 

It looks like there is a ton of convection in the warm sector. I wonder if it is robbing some of that moisture. Or it could just be a product of the just a bit too late of development

It's a shame the developing jet streak doesn't really get going sooner. It starts to round the base of shortwave south of our region. If that happened as it was exiting the Ohio Valley this would probably a region wide 12-18'' type deal. Would possibly help with pushing that QPF farther northwest...but I still think that ultimately happens. Even some nice MAUL's on some of the soundings.

I definitely think we’ll continue seeing ticks northwest. In fact, I was considering going 8-12” statewide. This is going to be yet another super impressive band. Perfect or nearly perfect H85 and H7 low tracks for heavy snow to move over CT. The 800-600 fronto from the FSU banding site was nuts. 
 

60+ knots inflow too feeding moisture into the storm. Probably see QPF continue to bump a bit too 

This was a pretty fun storm. Usually on weekends I'll stay at a friend's house in Bethel and my plan was to drive into Branford Monday morning. I was actually considering getting a hotel room Sunday night but thought I'd be fine leaving like 6:30 AM Monday. Woke up at 6 and there was already about 3-4'' of snow on the road so I just worked remote...worked remote yesterday too. Actually probably got another 3-4'' yesterday from off and on snow. Winds were pretty crazy. 

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

And of all the maps it’s that abomination.

I deserved to be tied up against a tree and beat with a stick. 

I am liking the HRRR though 

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Can you post it?

OH God...I can't believe I am posting a model snowfall map. Oh please Lord forgive me for my sins. I am going to have to do hailmarys until my sins are forgiven. This is a sad and terrible day.