weatherwiz

I hope we aren't this dry come May, June, and July 

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just saw EPS....other guidance shows this as well. Def a chance for some late season shenanigans. We'll see if that ULL look is still there in a few days, but a lot of support at the moment for it. Hopefully we get a threat out of it....beats dogshit 40F and rain.

Not surprised at this...had been some decent signals for this dating back to last week. 

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

How appropriate you got yours scheduled on the 10 year anniversary of the greatest tornado outbreak of them all!

That's exactly what I was thinking when they told me actually  

Got mine at Waterbury Health Center. Process really couldn't have been easier. As soon as I neared the parking garage there was signs directing where to park and signs within the parking garage of where to park. Then they had signs leading into the facility and it was all set up for perfect social distancing. Walked right in, gave them my license, then they directed me where to go. It was a pretty large clinic with at least 15-20 vaccine stations. Waited maybe one minute then they told me which station to go to, they reviewed information and asked a few questions then boom...shot done. Didn't even feel a thing. Went to the next station where they scheduled the second shot and then went into the observation room for 15-minutes and was on my merry way. 

Biggest stressor was nearly running out of gas...forgot to get gas the other day and while I had enough to get from Windsor Locks to Waterbury, I certainly didn't have enough to get back home...or very far. Made it to a gas station with 7 or 8 miles on the range  

Just got my first dose of Pfizer!!! Second dose scheduled for April 27

Might see potential for a few strong tornadoes again later in the week across MS/AL...they can't catch a break

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol ironically it’s cloudy here in interior CT..been that way since dawn. Cloudy and cold, 32 degrees..it sucks! 

there was a quite a bit of sun in Branford earlier but cloudy now and freaking cold

That continues to be one heck of a NAO block that develops moving through the upcoming week with AO tanking too. Probably see a snow threat for the interior at some point.

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh maybe lol...?  I was thinking he started it before he takes a shower, and then it’s off by the time he gets out to the vehicle.  But maybe I was wrong? Lol.  
 

Ya they’re great to have. Have had one in my trucks since 07...once you have it, you’ll never go without it. Just got one for my girlfriends lil Honda Civic, cuz she bought it used a few years ago, and it didn’t have one in it...she loves it. 

yeah I start it just before heading into the shower. for the most part the car is still running when I get into it. I think it shuts off after like 20-minutes. 

YES!!!!! Got an appointment for my first shot Tuesday. The Pfizer one too. 

I am so sick of this cold. But back in like early February (or JUST before that horrific cold snap we had) I got an automatic car starter put in...INCREDIBLE! I start my car before I get into the shower so when I am ready to leave...all I have to do is endure cold for like 8 seconds and my car is super toasty when I get in. 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ahhh...now that makes a lot more sense.  Thanks for clarifying Wiz :-). 

No problem! Thanks for pointing that out.

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if any one or source has put together a 'SBCAPE and CAPE climate' ...  like, graphically showing it bulge and recede through the calendar year.  

I can visualize it as growing from late Feb... S. TX and FL at first, expanding edging into the Gulf states early March...  etc.

By April 1st ...the northern edge of say the 500J/KG has crept N to about the Missouri Boot-heel ...over to Tennessee say... with the regions south gradated to deeper purple tones for every 200J/KG increasing... such that by May 1...it's down right passionate around the coastal Bend of TX ... the Florida peninsula ... over to Baton Rouge and NORA.. the 500 by then is up to central MN to Lowe MI and PA...

Mind you, that is not a product telling us what warm sector intrusion J/KG values are ...just the daily average.  Such that getting a 500 to MI - NY - MA ... is actually an indication that there are 1000 J/KG days sprinkled in...etc...etc...

 Then, in August the perennial continental drying and vegetation sedation begins ...and the colorization starts to recede S... such that by October ...it is almost gone...except there is a weird kind of secondary autumn tornado/severe weather curve that does elevate before the season truly does flat line in November - perhaps in that two to three week period ..the CAPE may flash slight polarward by some minor percentage. 

Mind you...I am imagining that - LOL.   I mean it's seem pretty easy - I'm sure something like that exists already. Pure mean CAPE and SBCAPE as a longer termed statistical average relative to date.  

 

That would be pretty sick! I'm sure something like that must exist. If I knew how to code I'd probably create it myself if it didn't  

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Was there a nocturnal jet emission?

enough to vastly increase the PWATS

21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t like it at all for spring activities. Sure there will be some 60+ days but overall, it doesn’t look good for consistent spring. 

brutal

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Your posts many times contradict themselves?  You say your liking the pattern, but then you say it has some really crap days? How does one like really CRAP DAYS?  Then you say your dying for consistency..which this pattern certainly doesn’t show, but yet you’re liking it?    And ultimately, you say you want to get out and walk more, but it’s gotta be above 60 for you to do that, and again this pattern doesn’t show that either...but yet you’re liking it?  Lol. 
 

You do this a lot in your posts...and I never really understand what it is your trying to convey?  

was supposed to say I'm not liking the pattern

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lets get out of a winter pattern first before dreams of a lightning bolt tickling your weenie have any chance of becoming a reality. 

I'm liking the pattern moving through this month. I guess just typical New England spring weather with a mixture of really crap days and some super nice days mixed in but I am dying for consistency. Want it to get super nice so I can go on walk's daily but it has to be like 60+

I had a dream last night that when I checked the GFS it was showing over 5,000 CAPE here towards the end of the run and so I checked this morning and it has nothing  

We are two weeks away before the 384-HR GFS officially gets into severe weather season!!!!!!!!!

screw it...time to just throw up a thread and work back from depression and hope things turn better moving into the summer. 

Pretty good signal for a low-topped squall line to push across southern New England during the early evening. Not much in the way of instability to work with but very strong forcing and jet dynamics. Should see some damaging wind gusts as this line works through 

nvection

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Analfrontals rarely work out. This has all the earmarks of looking great on models until 2 days out and then slowly , succinctly.. each run backs off sensing progressive flow and we’re left with a fropa. Happened multiple times this winter. Do not buy in 

Well we are getting a fropa...not expecting a big snow event or accumulating snow. but I do think many have potential to end as a burst of snow and maybe someone up north accumulates some. Could actually make a small argument for some decent snows across northern Maine.

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Buy

The signal for some significant cold is pretty big. I don't know off hand what records are like but I would imagine some record low highs could be in jeopardy across some spots Friday. 

That is one pretty damn cold airmass behind that front Thursday and it looks almost anafrontal like. Certainly could see many end as some snow when all said and done. Maybe some room for some type of accumulation well up north

Nice jet structure too

EWR is 83...40 mph and gusting to 54...holy crap. They're mixing up to like 795mb 

3 hours ago, LVwxHistorian said:

you mean this Home (tornadoproject.com)

no it was a different website.

was www.tornadohistoryproject.com 

I did come across this site and thought perhaps it was an updated site but looks like this one has been around a bit longer. 

Does anyone know why tornadohistoryproject.com is no longer valid. I'm guessing maybe funding? 

It was an amazing website...incredibly user friendly. Is there anything similar out there to easily access yearly tornado data and break down by month, day, year, state, rating? 

Such a shame that website is just....gone

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Sort of an interesting thought experiment is what happens if we continue to see these really warm SSTs in the warm season in Long Island Sound and the Atlantic. 

That is something to really monitor and keep in mind, especially if we end up with a big warmup early. Something like this just seems to becoming a new norm. There are so many things this could impact such as weaker inversions and greater low-level instability. Despite the fact they're a bit below-average just off the Southeast coast, that should change quickly over the next week with that ridge becoming established. A huge issue too should we get something tropical coming up the coast. We really got pretty lucky with Isaias last year because had it not made that second landfall I think we would have been screwed. 

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

lol yup. The last 3 years were actually pretty active locally with big wind events (5/15/2018 and 8/27/2020) but they're definitely the exception rather than the norm. 

Had dewpoints been 5-7F higher 5/15/2018 we probably would have had a couple EF3+ rip across the state