weatherwiz

Well with things heading towards the quieter direction, it's time to really make moves with the ENSO thread and gearing up composites. I just wish it was so much easier to make composites, especially when doing different breakdowns and such.

One more month! I think playoff start April 17

Great point. Forecasting has come a significant way...even in the last 10-15 years. We can have a solid idea now of storm potential 7-10 days out now which was unheard of before. Take even this winter...while it didn't work out, there were some storms that were signaled well in advance. Look at California too...the stretches of active weather they had were signaled well over a week out

There are just so many products and data now and it becomes overload...not too mention laziness. This isn't applied to anyone in here, but it seems alot of forecasts out there are just based off the assessment of a few products. I mean take severe weather for example (I'll lay off the snow maps for once). I know this winter has actually been above-average for severe weather and tornadoes, but there have been a ton of setups which have been way too hyped. There's been several events all mentioning "potential for strong tornadoes" and some of those events barely even produced. Everyone sees cute hodographs, pretty colors on the Significant Tornado Parameter/Supercell Composite parameter charts, and you'd think there were going to be 50 EF5's

What makes this stuff (long-range) so difficult is, sometimes it's not about the pattern, it's about the processes which occur for the pattern to develop and the deviations within the pattern. Sometimes I think we get too caught up in looking at just a static ENS mean. We see a deep trough in the East on the D6-10 or D10-14 and assume that equates to "good potential", but does it really?

Just time to move onto next winter. Now it's about the Bruins/Celtics playoff push, hoping the Red Sox aren't laughable, and then spending as much time outdoors as possible.

I just want to see trees start budding and get 60's for now. Then have months on end of 80's 90's with humidity.

I guess it's similar to making the playoffs as the final seed, yet winning the championship. Maybe a better example is the NBA...making the playoffs the #8 seed with a record of 31-51 and winning the championship

Now this is a hailer

At least he doesn't have to wait until September to be disappointed by the Mets.

At some point if you try and thread a needle 1,000 times you gotta find the hole, right

Will is far superior then me with this stuff, but I just don't see much of any potential outside of high terrain and northern New England. Sure the pattern can look "good" but there is one massive, key ingredient we're missing...cold. We were lucky enough to dynamically cool our way close to freezing this past storm in many borderline areas...we won't be that lucky in another few weeks. In order for there to be any, significant, meaningful threat outside of northern New England and the high terrain we need to first dump cold air into central/eastern Canada and then dump it here. All the cold air is all locked up. And anytime we've gotten major cold shots in happens on the backside of a strong front.

Window is nearly closed though and any potential is likely going to be interior and elevations at this point. not a good sign seeing a poleward displaced jet extension from Asia across the north Pacific with wave breaking featuring trough after trough digging into the West with a pretty long wave length...going to need huge NAO/AO support to fit flexing ridge in the East...I mean we've had a string of -NAO in spring's the past few years and that looks to continue. But outside of high terrain and far interior...we probably done with anything meaningful in terms of accumulations.

@40/70 Benchmark Final map released

What sucks is severe season will probably be crap too

I'd love to head south just for warmer weather at this point I'll always take a good March snow event, but I'm ready for at least some 60's and 70's right now. Ton of yard clean-up to do I want to get started on

Fun but exhausting storm to track. Really sucks for much of Connecticut, especially the Valley. Now it's onto severe weather season

Never got to get out and officially measure before everything shut off, but when I went out a few hours ago there was close to 3.5'' and I figure maybe lost 1/2'' (maybe a bit more) with melting. No new thus far.

yes, Springfield

Really starting to pick up here now with better snow growth and heavier rates. Some decent gusts at times too. Could be enough to bring down some weakened limbs if this keeps up

This is just my opinion But yes, they are really that bad. We'll use the two different methods, 10:1 and Kuchera. The Kuchera method was developed to help provide a more "accurate: assessment of ratios after all, we all know ratios can vary significantly. But (and as far as I know...this is where I could be wrong, hence the "this is just my opinion) all these products do is take a ratio and multiply it by QPF. Ultimately, snowfall production and accumulation are extremely complex and involve much more then just ratio and QPF. First off, snowfall ratios in themselves are extremely complex. They can change very rapidly during the evolution of the storm and can drastically within minutes. Degree of lift, abundance of moisture/ice crystals within the snow growth zone, thermal profile, moisture, CAA/WAA, evolution of the dynamics are all extremely critical in snowfall ratio and accumulation. Snow maps do provide value in they can help to quickly identify the gradient zones and where the cutoff can be expected and help identify local maxes and mins (the later though could easily be found by assessing numerous variable).

Yeah that makes sense. There is probably some subsidence going on as well, I think Scott mentioned this a few hours ago (or someone did)

Winds starting to pick up here. Wish the snow would...growth is awful but the goods still to the west.

IMO, the snowfall maps have been a detriment to the field. These things get tossed around left and right and literally all they do is create unrealistic expectations and create hype for the public. There is nothing worse then seeing 384-HR snow maps being thrown around all over social media or snow maps for a "D10 threat". There is absolutely ZERO reason. When an event happens the event is then measured solely on how the f****** snow maps "performed". WHO GIVES A SHIT HOW THE HELL THEY PERFORMED. Speaking of QPF though, I think models have come along way with QPF forecasting. But I think mesos have really helped with this.

Would be nice to see this band pivot east a bit soon. I guess it's a good thing you can still see echos feeding into the band so moisture influx is still strong