weatherwiz

Had some (brief) breaks of sun throughout the day. Went on a brief walk and sun came out on my walk. Felt super warm with the sun.

I've gone back through my printout charts of SSTA evolution during EL Nino fall's and winter (OND, NDJ, and DJF). Using my strength breakdown list, I analyzed the SSTA evolution for weak, moderate, and strong events. I've categorized the evolution of each event (of similar strength) and grouped like categories. This yields the following Note: when I say "weakened" I mean anomalies weakened through fall and winter. when I say "strengthened" I mean anomalies strengthened through fall into winter. Weak EL Nino Fall ---> Winter SSTA Evolution 1. EP (Anomalies did not expand or retrograde west) 2. Late blossoming EP (late blossoming EL Nino) 3. Modoki 4. EP (retrograding and weakening anomalies) 5. EP (Anomalies did not expand or retrograde west, but weakened) 6. EP (Core anomalies were located in the western ENSO region and weakened) Moderate EL Nino Fall ------> Winter SSTA Evolution 1. EP (Anomalies retrograded and weakened) 2. EP (Anomalies did not retrograde or expand west, but weakened) 3. EP (Anomalies expanded west) 4. EP (Expanded through basin and strengthened)*** (by definition this event was a strong one, but borderline so I may remove) 5. Modoki Strong EL Nino Fall ----> Winter SSTA Evolution 1. EP (Extended through basin and weakened. Became modoki) 2. EP (Extended through basin) 3. EP (Extended through basin and weakened) 4. Modoki became EP 5. (Expanded through basin and strengthened)

Well I am an idiot. I realize why I've struggled mightily with EL Nino structure. I went back to the drawing board starting off with the basics of EL Nino and its developing via references from NOAA, research papers, etc. When dealing with EL Nino structure, it's a completely different process then La Nina. With EL Nino you're either going to have EP (canonical) EL Nino (or EP to say central based) or your modoki (warming in the central or western ENSO regions.

Yes

Well that was fun. Can’t wait to get the real stuff in like another month

Multiple CG's in the last 5 minutes or so.

HAIL!!!!! pea sized hail!!! not a ton just some spits

THUNDER!!!

All these other years with big heat this early…very active severe wise. This is going to be a summer to remummber. Once we get into late May through August…we’ll be tallying 90’s like nothing and dealing with numerous severe setups. ITS COMING

Would not be shocked to see next Thursday/Friday end up warmer on guidance as we get closer.

BDL 92

Something like that happened in June of 1995 too (don't remember the date, maybe the 23rd?) but it dropped golf ball sized hail! Pretty wild for a back door front to produce. It was a record too which I think was broken a few years back.

The PDO state and SST configuration in the Pacific SCREAMS a hot summer in the East.

It is TOASTY out. Already up to 75 at CEF but it feels warmer then that. Should be another 90 easily today. 90's can tickle me all summer long. Can't wait to we introduce high dews with this next go around.

Florida it is

It is definitely getting cool now. Only planned on watching the first period outside…here I am well into the 3rd. Just hoping no OT

Starting to feel a temp drop now

Right! It’s either beautiful or absolute crap. Winter is fun…as long as we’re getting snow but once we move away from snow climo…just bring this on. I get people hate the humidity but you can still be outside. Sure if you’re working outside it can be dangerous but there is nothing like just being outside. I got a screen house so I can work outside…I’ve noticed such a huge change in my mood with this stretch, more than I ever have.

I can’t believe how nice it still is out. This is amazing. Watching the Bruins game outside. I love snow…I really do, but if it could snow one day and be like this the next, life would be perfect. I don’t know if it’s just getting older or maybe covid had an influence, but I’m so sick and tired of being held inside. This is just amazing

90 BDL!!!!!

they didn't suck it up, they died. Funeral homes were backed up with calls trying to peel people off their beds.

can you tell where the crest of the ridge is

Should be looking at CAPE maps, not snow maps

Some of the video and pictures are nuts. Even flooding at the airport

Crazy stuff around FLL…insane rainfall totals with those stationary thunderstorms