OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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As I get crustier I'm more convinced than ever that we (NWS) shouldn't entertain 24+ in our forecasts until we see the whites in the eyes of a band. It gets forecasts into trouble more often than not. We always seem to chase the peak runs in the 48-24 hour window and inevitably have to back off inside that in most areas. I think the last 72 hours at least have been pretty consistent from an ensemble perspective, despite what individual members/models had.
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I mean I would hit that 700 low in a heartbeat. The GFS has all the best QPF east of its track. I'm tossing that run to Georges Bank with its surface low.
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That's Kevin's opinion because it doesn't have as much snow as he wants. It is definitely a tool any office can use (we have QPF available to bring into the forecast). But every office does their own ratios and weather grids to create snowfall amounts, so no they didn't just pull in the HREF snow amounts.
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When did a foot plus for everyone inside 495 become shit? Gotta manage expectations a bit.
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I think this is the correct take. Take the climo average during this event because of the wind. But under the band will probably be able to push 15:1 still. But ratios rely on so much more than temp alone that I really don't factor them in at all other than is the lift collocated with the ideal temps.
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You yelling this to your family every time Ryan's map shows up on the TV.
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Made sure to sneak the 12-18" line under Tolland. Nice.
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It's definitely not my area of expertise, but you wonder as all these models drive down into this not quite convection allowing but not not convection allowing zone if that's not a large reason why cyclogenesis when you have a lot of latent heat release seems to be a little more unreliable.
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Whether intentional or not, we (NWS) tend to focus on the maximum amounts and be too broad with those amounts than realty. But it’s also nearly impossible to forecast the location and intensity of a band even at this range.
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I'm baking in a messenger shuffle at the end, but definitely thinking our snow totals will have to go up in the western edge of our watch area.
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Zonked is always a NAM worry. But it has some support from the Euro, which makes it more believable.
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Well I'm taking them up... At the coast. I feel like confidence is pretty high on a decent floor at the coast, so I'm bringing totals up there while keeping the interior more or less the same. Phin should love it.
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I'll bet everything that doesn't happen. (they don't exist anymore).
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This is starting to look like Jan 2018 modeling except closer to the coast.
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Similar to yesterday's horror show at 18z, there's no reason to go all in here either. Trends look good, but 00z could easily messenger shuffle east and we don't want to overshoot the forecast.
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https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/
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The thing about Kuchera is that somebody may pull off 20:1 underneath the main deformation band (which you can clearly see form and pinwheel away from the low center in the loop farther up the thread). So those totals are representative of the max amount SOMEONE may see. It's obviously too broad an area on this map, but gives you an idea of what the modeling has trended towards today.
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We're due for a run in the next 12 hours that tracks over the Cape and threatens taint.
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It does have the feeling of the dam breaking on this one. I'd be feeling pretty good if I'm on the coast right now.
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Bump those 500 heights up ahead of it too. That doesn't hurt.
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Honestly that's the only thing that's really "bad" about these soundings. Any dendrites/aggregates are going to get torn apart by the winds.
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It's pretty close up here that the 10th percentile is actually my best event of the season so far. Obviously I'm putting it all on red though and hoping for something bigger.
