OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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Yes and no. A human trains the machine learning system for specific forecasts (e.g. severe or flooding). And while the machine learning system uses model input to go through the tree, it also randomizes which variables are being used to get a diverse dataset. And you can continue to train the system over time, so while the model itself may not be explicitly forecasting severe, the system may know that sometimes severe still results.
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I still need to really read into the under the hood stuff, but theoretically it is machine learning so it should know about all types of set ups.
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3% chance of seeing a scary looking cloud near EEN.
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I loved the slap down of Mass when he used 12z 850 mb sounding data instead of 00z to say that we were getting all-time record highs from non-record 850 temps.
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Mine are actually root sprouts, but I'm realizing that the peach tree was grafted already (Redhaven on Lovell) so I don't want to graft the rootstock.
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How hard is it to graft? I have a couple suckers growing up around my peach tree and figured rather than pruning them I could try and save them.
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Kids Christmas presents tossed into Mass Bay.
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Seasons in seasons.
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Looks like that convection entering SW CT is slowing down. It's still moving for now, but could stall for a bit between DXR and BDR.
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Trying to figure out what/where that feature might be, the best I can come up with is the 700 mb boundary. RAP forecasts it to sag south like this, but re-establishes itself farther north overnight as WAA really kicks in. It is farther south than even the 00z run had it though.
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Seems someone forgot to reset the radar this morning, so much of that is from last evening's thunderstorms.
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There is a nice pool of low level moisture over much of SNE, but the best surface convergence through the low levels is across CT, then arcs northeast along the coastal front/sea breeze. The convergence is also stronger in CT than along the coastal front. It's really slamming in from the south.
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It's a statistical analysis (which is why they also give 90% confidence interval bounds, i.e. 3.5 to 7 inches for 3 hours). In the most basic terms they take the period of record and look at annual max values at each time interval for a region. From there they use statistics to establish the range for each time interval and location (like I think RI shows no statistical difference in amounts between each location so they are all the same values).
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Average recurrence interval is 200 years at PVD for 2 hours at 4.4 inches and 3 hour at 5.13 inches. Amounts near that have been observed.
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This is as close as I get to nude at work.
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The boundary is sitting just north of the Kent County border, and I don't see much reason why the rains won't continue there given the cells feeding into it from the southwest.
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That's not a bad separation vector on that tornado warned cell. ZDR arc and KDP foot are definitely showing size sorting, and the vector is close to perpendicular (maybe 60ish degrees). Sign that there is streamwise vorticity (not surprising along the frontal boundary) and should at least maintain for a little bit.
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Especially that eastern part of town is relatively flat and kind of historic meandering river/stream drainage from the higher terrain north and west. Couple that with the sprawl of concrete from Providence and you have a recipe for flooding.
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I'm still stunned by the photo, because that's a downhill stretch of 95.
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This is like classic tropical rain though. Z is mostly moderate across RI right now, ZDR on the lower side (~1-2 db), and KDP around 1 deg/km. Now KDP around 1 or 2 can be either heavy continental rain or heavy tropical rain. The giveaway is ZDR. Large continental drops would be large ZDR (flatter than they are round), but tropical raindrops stay close to 1 or 2 db as they are smaller and more spherical.
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The location more often than not was not particularly accurate, but the amounts were the key. If they were showing up in your CWA, you should sit up and pay attention to the threat. Rarely do these significant rainfall events occur without some heads up from guidance these days.
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It's more of a resolution thing. They know that this atmosphere will produce prolific rainfall, but they can't resolve the mesoscale features that will force it. So they convect over large grids.
