OceanStWx

You're really close to the mixing, so there's probably a ton of liquid water in there to rime onto the flakes. Nice to see a CCB again.

I mean based on the site info at NCEI, it's measured at the treatment plant. Technically, that is on the beach in Winthrop though.

That's one thing that was well modeled leading up to the event. The output and probabilities for 1 and 2 inches per hour kept increasing right through 00z last night.

And collapsing from the W across LI. Foster-Gloucester wins again.

IJD just ripped off 0.08" liquid in 25 minutes. That's some heavy snow.

Right in that 0 to -1 wet bulb is prime.

GYX had 0.5" of 16:1 snow at midnight.

I would lean towards power related, but I'm just saying it's not impossible. And the thunder is not a given, because snow and distance will muffle the sound.

Well think of it this way, you are lifting cooler/moist air in the exit region. Sounds a lot like your cold conveyor right? So it's not a bad thing. KUs are KUs because you couple the indirect circulation of the sub-tropical jet with the direct circulation of the polar jet.

There are some IC flashes about 100 miles S of LI right now. It's possible that's close enough to illuminate the clouds over RI too.

Right entrance is a direct circulation (i.e. warm air rising on the Equatorward side, cold air sinking on the polar side), so think WAA thump style.

Watch the echoes down over NJ. See the speed and direction they are taking (right at the heart of SNE). 700 mb front is probably not moving much, but 850 will tick NW some as the low approaches. But that precip over NJ will be slamming into a wall. That's the 40-50kt flags Will was pointing out yesterday.

I'm definitely in support of this dual banded structure we're seeing right now. The western band is pretty well aligned with 700 mb f-gen at the moment. The NAM isn't too far off that representation. The actual radar echoes are NW of that f-gen, so if you continue that trend into the NAM forecast for 09z SE NH and coastal western ME will do just fine.

I was just going to say that!

I mean I don't see a satellite based reason to toss the GFS yet. If I'm going to nitpick, it's probably a hair slow with the Dakotas kicker (which obviously could have large downstream impacts). That leading area of vorticity in the Carolinas that models have is interesting. Looping the regional radar and there is clearly a spin to the precip, so it's not some phony convectively created feature.

The home course advantage sure helps, but I have been able to shoot in the 70s away from Spring Meadows, and I'm particularly proud of a 39 on the front 9 at Belgrade Lakes. It physically pained me to walk away from that one after 9, but it was my wife's bridal shower and we couldn't be late. My favorite round was a quick 9 holes I played after a mid at Spring Meadows. Shot a 36 (+1) with two birdies, and only 10 putts.

If I had to do it all over again, I would check my ego. I picked up clubs and headed right for the tees with everyone else. I spent so many years slicing off the tee that I started fearing playing golf altogether. Took a long time to get over that. When I moved to Iowa for my first NWS job (2008) I dedicated myself to trying to improve. Bought my first real set of clubs, started watching the Golf Channel self-help shows, hit the range a couple times a week. I broke 50 for the first time in 2010 (shot a 46) on the little 9 hole course just north of the office, Rustic Ridge. 7 years later I got my handicap index down to 9.7. Someday I'll tell my son how he blew that up.

I've done Fox Ridge once before. Spring Meadows was the course I joined because it was close to work. Nonesuch River was always my preferred course in Portland (vicinity). And Belgrade Lakes is close to my in-laws and probably my other most frequently played course up here.

I've come that close as well. 4th hole Falmouth (ME) CC from 165. Pin right center, right at the bottom of a ridge. I hit the top of the ridge and gravity worked in my favor. After hanging on the edge of the slope it started to wobble and trickle back down. It always stayed just outside the hole, but settled 6 inches away. I had another at Spring Meadows in Gray, 16th hole about 110. I threw my gap wedge at the center of the green. I normally hit that around 115, so I played it back and tried to drive one in with some zip on it. I surprised myself when it spun back 10 yards, just missing hitting the flag stick on the way by. So that makes my longest hole out 85 yards (for eagle), but it was a scramble so I feel like it only half counts.

Even the pros are 50/50 at like 10 ft. So pretty much everyone is 2 putting anyway. The key is getting closer to the hole. And to get close to the hole you have to hit it farther (with all your clubs). My game really changed when I increased my distance by 20 yards or so through the bag.

Any golf weenies in here ever read up on strokes gained? My wife got me Every Shot Counts years ago and cover to cover was a fascinating book about how to look at advanced golf statistics. I even found an Excel spreadsheet to track my own strokes gained vs. a scratch golfer. Basically I lose the majority of my strokes from approach shots (mostly approaches from the fairway believe it or not). I always thought that I would lower my scores if I focused on short game, because that's the conventional advice. Turns out it's my long game that sucks, too many penalty strokes, poor tee shots, and chunky irons.

Got a couple indoor simulator locations in the PWM area now which I love. They use the same tech as the Golf Channel, so it's a pretty realistic experience (if you drop the gimmes down to 3 ft or less). Trying to get that club speed into the low 100s more frequently. Actually joined a league this winter, which is slowly bringing my game back after the kid destroyed my handicap.

Tip is right about one thing, measuring as close to the end of the snowfall as possible is ideal (and recommended by the way). But if you think about this all in an impact sense, what makes more sense: plows waiting until the snow stops and removing snow, or plows nearly continuously keeping roads clear? I would argue a plow operator is much closer to observing the 6 hourly snowfall amounts than the 24 hourly. It's one thing we've discussed internally about the 6" in 12 hours vs 9" in 24 hours warning criteria. If anything the lighter, longer duration 9" in 24 hours is more impactful because road crews are out longer.

Starting to look that way.

Obviously a long way to go, but even a moderate snow storm next week would give PWM a shot at top 3.