Sn0waddict

Am I missing something? It’s a weak low that looks like it’s about to get squashed south.

Ukie is a 999 east of cape cod.

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=ukmet

Still isn't updated there yet either.

I think it just updated? I see a 999 low off cape cod at hr 120

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Being wrong is one thing but for the NWS to basically be so definitive about something that is 4-5 days out is unusual. 

Still waiting for my 24 to 36 from Juno 

Poor icon should of just not ran at 0z

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

CMC is also south 

Low is off the NJ coast vs over CT.

CMC is also south 

18z icon is still a great hit.

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'd pay 20 bucks for that evolution. 

I don’t want freezing rain, but 52F? Bleh ideally just switch me to sleet for a while.

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

It was really amped at 6Z. where did you see the 12z?

0z went over LI, 6z over SE MA/Cape Cod.

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

FWIW(not much unless it's Feb 2006) the JMA is less amped this run. 

Low is in a similar spot to the CMC and UKIE ( in Virginia) CMC then brought it northeast into CT while UKIE went almost due east.   No idea what the JMA does with it from there, but it definitely wouldn’t be into NY like the GFS.  Ok moving on from the JMA now lol

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

How can the Euro be so different

Let’s see what the 12z euro has to say. Maybe it still step towards the ukie?

Congrats James on the UKIE? That high position is crazy different than GFS/CMC.  Hell the CMC acts like there isn’t even one at all and starts most of SNE as rain.

The high is much quicker to move out on the CMC/GFS vs the ICON. 

Yesterday’s 12z GGEM had the low in Montreal, today it has it in Virginia. Sheesh

993 low over Albany.  Yikes.

5 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

I think we need that storm to really wind itself up in the gulf of Maine and into the maritimes a little to act as some sort of block for the follow up

Ya it came in slightly weaker which was unfortunate.

12z NAM definitely the coldest for Friday’s system, looks like snow for the entire region minus the east end of LI.  

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

GFS is being taken offline? Care to elaborate?

It’s suppoaed to be replaced by the FV3

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Last nights 0Z CMC showed the cutter. I was hoping at the time it was an outlier, not the case today though other models seem to be trending that way.

The CMC is still an absurd outlier.

Identical location to the previous FV3 run, LP over LI

CMC still a cutter.

Just now, weathafella said:

ICON gives me 18+.  I’m selling 

Ya biggest takeaway is probably the fact that it trended stronger with the Friday storm. That Sunday track will change a ton. I also am definitely spending too much time talking about the ICON.

ICON is a snow thump then a changeover despite a great track and very vey cold surface temps. Take with a grain of salt but it’s nice to see that’s not an inland cutter.

edit: changeover for SNE. Every else is all snow.

ICON trending stronger with the Friday low,  especially vs 0z. Hopefully that’s a trend for all models today.