Sn0waddict

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

00z GEFS mean is actually more west and northwest than the operational.  Also the individual members are more west and northwest of the mean with more members than previous runs, they also prolong the precipitation more from hours 78 to 96.

There are more tucked in members for sure, but the north progression still isn’t very good. Most get shunted east at/south of cape may. 

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Looks fabulous for most in SNE. GFS is doing the usual sh*t.  

Ya i feel that way too, seemed early on like it was trending in the right direction but then it just fell apart.

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs says the op run is an outlier

They are definitely more tucked than 18z ensembles but the north progression is still not there before they get kicked east.

CMC is nothing like the GFS. Foot + for SNE.  

5 minutes ago, friedmators said:

That’s with snow still falling for most of the area correct?

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Socks and shirt ofd. Pants half off. Waiting for the final signal to remove it all. 

Get the GFS on board and I might finally do the same. Almost there.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Knowing both posters and their locales, I'm guess its huge s of the pike with a sharp cut off.

Only goes to 84 obviously, but it’s great for everyone south of the NH border.  Death band extending from philly to providence.

The RGEM is an absolute crusher wowzers.

Crazy uncle out yet?

RGEM looks similar to the NAM.

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea the capture off ACY between 102 and 108 is classic for a ripping ccb from interior mid atl into sne.

Could see totals even higher than what’s showing up on the EURO weenie map if that happened. But many more solutions to go before we can lock this in.

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

The storm is being blocked from moving out fast - in no hurry to leave.........

Seems like prior runs were quick to shove it east though once it hit the block to the north. What’s stopping it from sprinting east on this run? 

4 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

With the block we’re good right?  Last couple seasons hasn’t played well into the models hands.....

Really just depends on how far north it goes before it gets pushed east by the high. The stronger the storm the more tucked/north it goes.  This euro run verbatim would be great for all of SNE. It also appears to turn this into a 24 hour event, almost stalling between 6z-12z.

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

starts early afternoon Wednesday tapers off around noon Thursday almost 24 hour event...........

That’s seems like a pretty big difference vs prior runs. Especially compared to the gfs.

Wait did it pretty much just stall between 6z-12z?

Wish this was the euro of old where we could just lock it up and celebrate,  but that’s a good run for sure. 

NAM actually is coming more north/stronger with the Monday system. Looks pretty good for portions of SNE.

3k looks like it will come north too.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter storm flynn

Do we have to grant it a pardon if it ends up betraying us?

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yeah--CT is pretty much mid-atlantic when it comes right down to it.

Maine is pretty much Canada when it comes right down to it lol

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We might play with fire but I’m ok with it. I sent out my initial SWC email today to my family and friends saying 8-12” from Merritt on north, as a preliminary heads up. 

I said 6+ , hoping that’s on the conservative side.

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There are a lot of tuckies:

Can live with the tuck as long as it starts going East by the time it reaches south Jersey. Any farther north and it starts becoming a problem.

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice. 

From the MA board:

GEFS look more SE than the OP for sure.

So maybe a compromise between the euro and the gfs could come to fruition?