Sn0waddict

6 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Massive improvements on the RGEM.

In what regard?

3k is better too, which has been the warmest model to date. A few hours of sleet but it then crashes at hr 33

Wow much better for coastal ct and Hudson valley. Maybe an hour of sleet at the most and no dry slot.

This does indeed look better so far.

8 minutes ago, ChickenMan888 said:

Woah, what happened? All the snow totals dropped

They actually went up compared to 18z

Just now, WinterWolf said:

What is that? 

A bad weather model.

When does the 18z euro come out?

Quite the dry slot on the HERPES. Sheesh

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Practically identical at the surface at Hr 36 to 12z. Next panel is the most important one though. 

1 mb stronger and a hair East. Looks pretty identical to 12z.

Practically identical at the surface at Hr 36 to 12z. Next panel is the most important one though. 

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I expect the GFS will cave either this run or next at 00z

Cave to what? There still doesn’t seem to be uniform agreement across the board. 

NAM looks a little less amped up to me.. will see how it translates but it would be great if it moved more towards euro type solution. 

Difference appears to be a warm tongue at 700mb on the 3k vs the GFS. We don’t even sniff sleet here on the GFS despite it having a similar low position as the NAM. My guess is unfortunately that the 3k would be better at picking up stuff like this, but perhaps it is overaggressive with it..

3k is a few hours of snow and then sleet then a dry spot despite having a further south surface track than 6z. This hobby sucks.

Pretty much every model now has a dry slot in CT after a initial thump. Makes sense honestly, just hope to keep the sleet down into LI.

Edit: though based on the map above who cares if we dry slot that initial thump would be awesome.

Seems like things are just becoming more unclear now not less. Dryslots, suppression, mixing all a possibility still. No bueno.

Icon and RGEM seemed to go north a bit. Would rather not have that happen. Will see if it’s a trend or a fluke.

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I wonder what Harvey is thinking 

I wonder what Ryan is thinking.

CMC looks pretty much the same as 0z, maybe tucked just a slight bit more but same trajectory besides that.

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

RGEM or CMC? i always thought the RGEM only goes out to 48..

RGEM goes out to 84 hr now on TT

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This is a signal I don't love. Euro is able to overcome it to an extent, but it's similar to how the GFS handles it.

Throwing multiple shortwaves into the longwave trough is complicating the flow just enough. Like when you get two closely spaced waves at the beach and the lead wave gets held back by the trailing wave some. 

Was about to go to bed feeeling good and then you had to do this.. . Actually it’s good to be made aware of stuff like this, but a positive GFS trend would really help me feel better about this whole thing. 

Slower too no? Still right off AC at 9z. I think NAM/CMC had it gone by 12z

How far north does it go until it pulls east?

That looks nothing like the GFS lol.

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

I would sign up for no more storms this entire winter to see 3 feet of snow in my yard....no questions asked! 

38 inches in 12 hours with gusts in the 40s. LOL call me skeptical of that, but it is nice to look at.