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Jersey Andrew

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    Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Well in terms of our snowfall you’re totally correct. But we did have 3 juiced up perfect track STJ dominant waves and 1 hybrid where the h5 crossed just south of DC in our “money box”. But they were all too warm and just rain.  In a non Nina we don’t typically get that many stj chances. I think this year ended up a hybrid. Had the juiced up STJ but superimposed onto the Nina pac base state with associated warmer thermals. That neutralized the advantage of a Nino for our snow purposes and left it Nina like wrt snowfall. 

    Do you think we are essentially done with snow this winter in the DC metro area?

    February 2024

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Heisy said:


    Just need one big event and it’s a good winter in my book


    .

     

    36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

    Would be a real shock for everyone that thinks winter is done

    However 82-83 is a top analog and that had one big storm, PDI

    The Pineapple Express about to hit West Coast really is reminiscent of ‘83. I just have this feeling that a widespread 20-30” snowfall is going to hit us in February.

    • Weenie 1

    February 2024

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

    It's back. And right now with CMC indicating snow over the mid Atlantic States the likely track would keep this too far to our south and east and we'd stay high and dry. But the HP position is perfect on this run. It would only take some subtle changes to cause this system to track a little further north or turn up the east coast (less likely but still not impossible). So we watch and wait but it's still NOT boring.

    WX/PT

    Do you see this 2/5 storm as legit snow threat for DC metro area?

    Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

    You should've been around in 2010. The New York crowd really lost it when Feb 6 2010 completely screwed them over. Most of New England (outside the mountains) got screwed over and over again throughout the season.

    In the end, I almost felt bad for them. Of course, the key word is almost.

    But NYC capitalized in late February and then Boxing Day Blizzard. I lived outside the city at the time and that six year period 2010-2016 was beyond amazing for snowstorms.

    Jan 19th Storm OBS Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Winter appeal and stats are 2 different things. On paper, stats so far look entirely underwhelming. But the appeal of a week of sub freezing snowpacked yards, back to back events, and having them both overperform short range will make this winter for me. I'll remember this week until death or dementia lol

    I think many of us love the long-tracking HECS potential. It’s what made 2016 and 2010 so much fun. Before the Internet and these boards, the aesthetics mattered more but now the excitement of EURO showing HECS at 1:30am is what keeps us going.

    • Like 2

    January 2024

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

    Through 1 pm, snowfall amounts included:

    Atlantic City: 1.3"
    Baltimore: 4.1"
    New York City: 0.1"
    Newark: 0.6"
    Philadelphia: 2.9"
    Washington, DC: 3.3"

    There were some 6.0" amounts. Areas receiving 6.0" of snow included Clayton, Dover, and Middletown in Delaware.

    Following the storm, the temperature will fall into the teens in New York City tonight and again tomorrow night. Outlying areas could experience some single-digit cold. Tomorrow will be fair but very cold with the mercury struggling to reach the lower and middle 20s across the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Overall, this coming weekend will see this winter's coldest readings so far.

    Beyond that, the development of an EPO+/AO+ pattern will lead to a noticeable warming trend that could send temperatures well into the 40s across the region and even into the 50s in parts of the region. This warm period will very likely assure that January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions.

    The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked.

    The SOI was +20.45 today.

    The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.535 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

    On January 17 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.729 (RMM). The January 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.667 (RMM).

    Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.8° (2.1° above normal).

     

    Don, do you still see evidence of a cold and snowy February for the Northeast? Models are suggesting this pacific jet extension could lead to hostile conditions for winter weather especially during first half of February.

    • Like 1

    Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

    If the guidance is correct though...and we get a 1-2 week period like this before things recycle back to a good pattern...

    When this happens...

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t2m_c_anom-6421600.thumb.png.1b79efac305301738bc6a209b65029df.png

    Does that mean I am going to have to hear the "everything is fine" crew blame the torch we get late Jan/Early Feb for why its too warm when we get a couple perfect track rainstorms in February?  As if to snow now we need there to NEVER be a bad pattern at all for the entire winter because we need weeks to build cold as if that is somehow not part of the problem!  

    February is starting to look like potential train wreck especially with this jet extension.

    Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

    Might not be exactly what we were expecting, but after maybe a one week milder period, this type of pattern can get us back to normal pretty quick. As is, it looks somewhat like 2015, but there are hints of Scandi ridging retrograding.

    1706702400-4izEYLRInHs.png

    Latest Euro weeklies depict a longwave pattern progression from that^ to this for mid Feb. Can kick? Maybe. Subjective. I don't see any indication of a shit the blinds pattern going forward. My wag is we see a -NAO episode Feb into March.

    1708041600-CUXemWh6ykc.png

     

     

    Is there any hint of the active stormy snowy pattern advertised on seasonal models?

    Jan 11-13th Blizzard

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, King James said:

    Chicago crew - Skilling has a ton of content regarding this storm on his FB page

    Skilling deserves a monster blizzard before his retirement. I was in school up in Chicago for the 1999 storm and it was just a dream scenario for winter weather lovers: 21 inches of snow followed by -15 air temps and -40 windchills.

    • Like 1

    Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

    You might have missed a cutter..but spot on.  I know we all joke around and some really panic…but it really does not look good from a strategic sense.  We can lose a battle or two but now we are losing the war.  Coming up on mid Jan…not 1 inch of snow for many of us.  

    Just having a flashback to ‘97-98 with all these massive rainstorms. It’s possible things turn around in February but that year it did not and we have to prepare ourselves.

    Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    I wanted to use last nights Euro to highlight how chaotic the period from the 15-22nd is going to be and why there is a lot of potential and several legit threads IMO but none are likely to resolved early on guidance.  I know using an operational at that range for details is silly but all the ensembles agree on the same general pattern evolution and location of key features, the differences are all within the expected margin or error so in this case the euro op can show us what it COULD look like within the paradigm the ensemble guidance is hinting at.  But I am NOT saying its going to look exactly like this...my point is actually with all the noise in the pattern there is no way any one run is going to nail all this, I just want to lay out some of the options.  

    Look at the setup for the first threat next week on the euro

    Euro1.thumb.png.b9969e4b901196230557f63e04a6b0eb.png

    Initially everything is anchored around the old weakening at this point TPV vortex, feature A.  A strong NS SW, C, is rotating around behind while an STJ feature D is swinging by at the same time.  A is way too far west for where we actually want it...but luckily on the euro the TPV is elongated east over the top with a feature B swinging through the 50/50 space and creates just enough suppression in the flow.  The euro also perfectly phases C and D at almost the ideal spot for us.   Without that none of this would work.  There is also a kicker E.   But look how noisy this is.  These features are all interacting.  This is not the same as if the vortex was out near 50/50 and left the playing field void of NS interference for some STJ wave to come along and attack the entrenched cold locked in by the 50/50.  That is the simple nino path to a HECS and the one guidance can lock in on the general storm idea from 10 days out and we can reasonably get excited at long leads. 

    This has potential, we have had many big snowstorms through history from a similar convoluted setup working out...but it can also fail easily if all these moving parts don't come together and there is no way in hell guidance will consistently show these features run to run correctly at range.  

    For example lose the phase between C and D and its suppressed.  Lose that feature B rotating through 50/50 and its a cutter.  Change any one of these variables and the whole thing changes one way or another.  

    And what happens with this sets up whatever comes after.  Look at the op euro after this storm.

    Euro2.thumb.png.e5928e1fee20263c58f58283558bf64f.png

    This might be an even better setup for a big snowstorm here.  But we are getting more NS interaction that ideal or normal for a nino.  Look at A/B/C/D out west.  How those all interact would determine how this goes.  But the atlantic is so damn perfect here we simply need one of those to be dominant enough to dig.  Our goalposts on the initial track of any wave ejecting from the west would be HUGE in that setup.  But they could all run interference and squash each other during the 3 day window we have here where its perfect for something to come along.  Or they could all phase out west and cut off and sit there until its too late.  Ideally we would want one of these waves to eject as healthy as possible and slide east.  

    But what happens with the first wave would determine if it even looks that way.  The GFS doesn't phase C and D and so it weakly slides a wave off the coast...and the main TPV then doesn't weaken and get pulled into the new phased storm the euro has...and so it gets left behind to drop into the lakes and likely suppress and squash any chance we have for the window I showed on the op euro above.  

    Looking across guidance...it seems we need a more phased solution from wave 1 to have a better chance at the next threat after.  Whether that phased storm gives us snow or not...it pulls the old vortext east into the 50/50 and sets up a better scenario for around the 20th.  So IMO we really really want to root for a euro win on that regardless of the eventual exact track of that storm.  Hit or miss a phased bomb on that 16th storm sets up a better scenario after.  

    But the main point is while this period has a lot of potential and I could see how we get back to back snowstorms...it also is crazy noisy and depends on a lot of NS moving parts that guidance is extremely unlikely to be correct on from any range at all.  

    Do you anticipate an overrunning setup this year akin to PDII February 2003? February has been hyped as the real deal for East Coast snowstorms so trying to keep the hope.

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