RCNYILWX

Maybe there's something to that with these blocky stagnant patterns seemingly getting more frequent? But on the other hand could recency bias be at play? I only ask because my time out here is 10.5 years now and at least for me, these relatively lengthy dull stretches don't seem that much out of place. The legendary winter of 13-14 was very much out of the norm. Even the 2010-11 winter, my first out here, had a decent December, followed by a pretty quiet January until GHD I and then February really wasn't all that great out here after GHD I. I've wondered if the 2007-08 through 2010-11 winters and then 13-14 and to a lesser extent 14-15 coming not too long after that stretch helped drive the perception of how a winter should be because that's when these forums became popular. I've heard it mentioned many times here that the 90s overall weren't great and neither were the 80s. The 2000s were pretty spotty too until the aforementioned stretch kicked off by 07-08. You had epic months like December '00 followed by long doldrums. You had good months like January '05 and February '07 following very long mild stretches and outright bad winters like 01-02 and 03-04 and much of 05-06. Don't get me wrong, I became passionate about the weather because of east coast snowstorms and badly want us to have a major region wide event this winter. But I really think our climo owes to having at least one or two lengthy disappointing stretches a winter even in solid winters.

The people who have a constant pathological need to downplay this virus are like the trolls we get toward the NWS when an alerted potential severe weather/tornado outbreak doesn't destroy their neighborhood. It's almost like people need to see a Contagion movie like scenario play out to feel validated. If a certain prominent politician and his most ardent supporters hadn't made it a sign of weakness to want take safety precautions against this virus, I feel confident in saying it would never have been as politicized. Europe's (and most notably recently the UK's) experience with covid probably shows there would've been no easy way out with this, but I doubt we would've done worse. The fact of the matter is this virus is the perfect storm precisely * because * most people are okay. It leads to too much focus on individual mortality risk, which especially the younger you get, is low, BUT still much higher than for other highly contagious infectious diseases. This has always been about collective/community risk vs individual risk and it's sad that so many people don't see that. The hospitalization metrics really tell you all you need to know about how serious this is before the horribly sad death numbers because these numbers are for covid only and obviously can go on to lessen the quality of care someone else may receive for a different ailment. Would anyone ever drive if their chances of a car accident were as high as a bad non-fatal outcome from this virus, like hospitalization and/or long hauler type case or prolonged pulmonary or cardiovascular effects? Most have never said to live life cowering in fear, but to take safety steps not only lowers your own risk and your family's risk, it also can help lessen the downstream effects. My whole house (my wife, 2 young kids and I) had covid back in late October-early November and yes, silver lining is our risk is much lower for now and likely significantly lower moving forward, but I never would have willingly chose the experience we went through even though it meant that it was safer to see my family for the holidays. (As an aside, I think it's quite possible our 14 year old dog died partially because of covid too.)

At least there's something interesting meteorologically until we might see chances increase of finally getting more of the metro a solid event. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

If only we could be as creative in our AFDs like back in the day when Gino had a Facebook group dedicated to his AFDs haha. My main source of optimism right now is that it looks like we're unlikely to melt the glacier much before the hopeful arrival of a better pattern, so until that time, at least it's better than no snow OTG on these cloudy/foggy days and the kids can get out and sled every day. I spent hours doing that with my kids over the holiday weekend [emoji4]

I attached the ensemble mean (EPS first 2 and GEFS next 2 images) 200 mb isotachs (wind speeds) to illustrate. If you go from current to out around day 10 or so, the pattern blocks off the northern stream/Polar Jet and is very southern stream dominant, hence the overall zzzz look. The pattern on the attached images is quite different from that, with the northern Pacific/polar jet coming ashore and coupling with the enhanced southern stream forced underneath the block. The -NAO is quite evident in the anti-cyclonic curvature of the height lines up to the vicinity of Greenland. Anyway, I'd envision Pacific hybrid type systems and clippers in the above pattern depending on point of entry short-wave impulses. If the -PNA trend the EPS and GEFS are showing out at the end of their respective runs is legit, then you can get a west southwest to east northeast tracking Colorado low that would eventually see the primary running into the block and a secondary probably redevelop underneath. Could also see that with more vigorous Pac hybrid systems tracking from west northwest to east southeast. I might get attacked by Angrysummons for this, but if I'm not mistaken both 2009-10 and 2010-11, the most recent examples of prolonged sustained -AO/-NAO blocks during the heart of met winter also were accompanied by periods of neutral to negative PNA. Not bringing these up as a promise of what we'll get, but as a way to demonstrate that the east coast weenies getting excited about the upcoming pattern doesn't have to automatically mean we'll get screwed out in the central and western subforum. I certainly can't guarantee some systems not getting suppressed and favoring southern parts of sub and points south and then the east coast, but as modeled and if we can get them into non-fantasy time-range, the ensemble means look solid for a good chunk of the sub to cash in potentially. You don't see it by looking solely at the 500 mb anomalies, but there is a suppressed WAR progged off the east coast, so that's not a northwest flow CAD hell look to me once out to mid month. Finally, if we go back to the last strong -NAO during the cold season, March-April 2018, that period had some more than solid winter systems that benefitted portions of the sub. Would like to see any long range experts or enthusiasts chime in with feedback on my thoughts. Don't want to get hopes up too much quite yet when there's a lot of time to go.

This stagnant/blocky pattern we're in with extensive snow/glacier cover is why I'm at times loathe to advertise those warm color AN probs CPC graphics this time of year. With no synoptic system to shake things up with a warm sector to melt some of the snow/ice, can easily lean colder highs and milder lows than much of the guidance is showing. These patterns give the MOS fits because the 850/925 mb temps would favor generally AN temps... if we had no snow cover and sun. Because of the warmer mins, we'll average above normal for average temps during this stretch, but I don't think anyone but Beavis would confuse this with warm. After current round of fog and hoar frost and spotty low level snow showers improves behind the cold front tonight, looking at another good setup for these conditions to return Tuesday evening into Wednesday, which might not really clear out until Saturday given little change in the pattern.

Revisiting what I posted earlier today, no changes in overall thinking based off most recent ensemble runs. End of 12z EPS quite promising in showing a slightly -PNA developing as the western NOAM ridge retrogrades off the west coast, which the GEFS continues to point toward as well. We can only hope this look gets to within 10 days because I could see it offering multiple chances to more than localized portions of the sub given the -AO/-NAO favored to lock in. Prior to that, definitely a stagnant zzzz look. There's a chance some southern stream energy can break through later Sunday into Monday to bring a light snow threat for some areas. Ensembles showing low to medium chances of light measurable QPF during that time and the 12z GGEM did show a weak wave as well. Definitely not seeing anything supporting even widespread advisory type snows while we're in this blocky STJ dominated pattern, barring sizable changes in the medium range.

It doesn't look great through mid month but it also doesn't look like a torch because of the strong west based -NAO. Without it, it would be a full on torch. Pacific jet will remain active during this time with a tendency for systems to come underneath, though you can't rule out individual waves edging a bit north. One thing to keep in mind about the upcoming pattern is it should help keep a lot of the snow/glacier cover in place if you're into that. Mid month and beyond should have colder air involved as the EPO trends neutral to slightly negative (the ens means h5 looks more negative than the charts) and PNA also trends neutral to possibly slightly negative while maintaining -AO/-NAO. The pattern hasn't really gotten pushed back, week 1 into week 2 never looked great. I wouldn't rule out some snow for parts of the sub, but better chances should arrive toward and beyond 1/15 barring big changes from what we're seeing later in the ensemble runs. If we can get the slightly negative PNA the GEFS is advertising toward end of run, that would only help but even the EPS has the ridge axis far west enough that it doesn't scream CAD necessarily. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Congrats @A-L-E-K Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

As others have mentioned in January thread, tonight looks good for a solid fairly short- lived burst of snow. Nice mid-level lapse rate (>7C/km) plume advecting northward over the mini trowal across northeast and central IL and northwest Indiana. One of these similar setups last winter produced a localized swath of 3-4". I think 1-2" amounts will be common for all but the northern tier, with spots of 2-3". Can't rule out a very localized 3"+ given the nature of these potent little waves with good lapse rates.

Enjoy your 1-3"

If the ECMWF weeklies are on the right track, you can toss that CFS January prog as far as you can throw it. Here's a loop of the weeklies put together by a frequent poster on the New England sub: Because there were very valid fears about a warm outcome this winter and we see already how mild December was, the increasingly likely development of major high latitude blocking in the Arctic and Atlantic can only be a good thing. We take and hope more of the subforum can benefit this month and likely beyond. Can probably also include this in the medium-long range thread. PS: Happy New Year to all! Here's to a snowy next couple months and eventually better things to come in 2021 than what 2020 gave us.

Link to a loop of the ECMWF weeklies run last night for the 00z/28 cycle: https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2020_12/ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-1609113600-1609718400-1613088000-20.gif.64969e182ab9478fa5381e7fe5f284d5.gif Not sure if it'll work. Tried to post the .gif but file size is too big. In sum, the ++EPO Pac puke dominated start to January goes over to an Atlantic and Arctic blocking dominated pattern. The latter portions of recent ensemble runs also going to that sort of look. Been a lot of discussion on SSW likelihood into January. Certainly don't want to hype it like it often gets, but long range experts are saying there's good precursors going on near Siberia to favor the occurrence. If so, the tendency for -AO/-NAO that's been there could further deepen and point toward a colder outcome than expected from mid January or thereabouts and probably into Feb. If a major anomalous blocking episode develops, they tend to stick around for quite a while. For most recent met winters that had deep Arctic and Atlantic blocking in the heart of the winter, have to go all the way back to 2009-10 and 2010-11. The 09-10 block lasted all the way through Feb and into March, but the 10-11 block collapsed in early Feb (and probably helped those of us who cashed in on GHD I). After a mild start to January, things "could* turn more interesting if we get cooperation from the Pacific. We'll see how things play out as we get closer to that period. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That pattern could produce snow events because of the assistance of the strong -NAO to modulate the +EPO some. It's certainly not a cold pattern. I'm not on the optimism train, just saying that's not a lock to be snowless like this month has been. The 850 mb positive anomalies are not obscene and the mean 850 mb 0C line is near or south of I-70. If we get a lower amplitude wave, could snow here with that. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Even though it was warmer than normal, January 2012 happened to be the best month of that winter, two decent storms and the only AN snow month of the cool season. The second event in January 2012 had nice high ratio fluff with the longest duration of 1/4 mile visibility in snow at ORD and MDW since GHD I and caused nightmare travel on a Friday afternoon commute. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Not at the office so I'm not sure what went on with that. Seems like there's another chance to get on the board tonight if any of the occasional more robust snow showers move over ORD. This holiday mood dust is better than nothing. Did a lights tour around Naperville and the snow falling made for a nice vibe. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Both winter 2009-10 and 2010-11 had deeply -NAOs, 09-10 pretty much wire to wire, and were good winters for Chicago. The blocking in 2011 eroded in time for GHD I. That's not a statement about how things may go here the next few weeks, but just a note to point out a -NAO can be good here. With respect to moving forward, the ensembles also show a +EPO look with the big NAO block (backed up by the forecast teleconnection indices), so that could help prevent it from being more torchy and *maybe* assist in keeping some systems farther south. The deep blocking may come too late to help us next week though.

Certainly could, as the passage of the vort will be accompanied by a reinforcing surge of cold advection. At least according to the NAM depiction, with the lake effect + synoptic enhancement could see squally type stuff swing out your way during the day on Friday. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I had noticed the 12z RGEM brought in some light (around 1") accums to parts of northern IL late Thursday night into Friday morning. The models have been very consistent in a strong 700 mb vort wrapping around the stacked upper low, but main question has appeared to be available moisture. Tonight's 00z NAM showing some light QPF with this feature, so things might be trending toward getting a DAB+ down for Christmas morning. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Glass half empty view... It just doesn't want to snow here and we're a lock for BN snowfall. This week is very frustrating. Aside from a few model runs that drew everyone in, was never really that excited about big snow for the Christmas Eve threat, just as something thread the needle that could work out if everything came together right. Figured that we could meh our way to an inch or two but that's seemingly impossible now. Even the clipper warm advection wing this morning was a total fail. Glass half full view... Still have plenty of time left and that example of 1998-99 and a few other examples on Hoosier's list. 2012-13 was an interesting one too, because we had several near misses that winter that could've resulted in a much different outcome. The northern tier counties actually ended up rallying for a well AN snowfall winter. Another example not on Hoosier's list: 2014-15. November was cold and had some snow but only a T in December, tied with 2 other winters for least snowy December. Seemed like getting to AN that year was less likely but of course GHD II happened. Ya never know. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

IDK, I'm not trying to be overly optimistic, but I don't think the most recent Euro weeklies and GEFS extended (I don't really look at the CFS and it's probably getting discontinued anyway at some point) look terrible for January. It appears the EPO will average positive but it doesn't look to be due to a black hole over Alaska but northeastern Pacific and northwestern North America troughing that's pretty common in La Nina's. The -NAO signal is still there to mute heights some in the east. If there's enough dateline ridging (-WPO) and a huge vortex doesn't set up over AK, that typically provides good cold air discharge that can bleed from western and central Canada into the northern Plains and northern Lakes. I see there being opportunities and probably averaging near to above normal temps but potential for some decent cold shots assuming cold does build into the Plains. Don't get me wrong, it's not screaming great pattern or anything, but it looks more serviceable than the dumpster fire that has been December, except for a few lucky spots.

Those coarse resolution CFS maps don't make any sense. Even if you account for background climate signals, there's no mid and upper pattern configuration that would torch the entire continent. If Alaska is torching that extreme, then there's gonna be a trough over at least the eastern half of North America. If a good chunk of the CONUS is torching, Alaska will be cold due to ++EPO from the TPV parking nearby, like in 2011-12.

Need this post on the potential event thread. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Added more stronger SLP members farther south than 18z EPS so roughly 2 clusters within that increasingly large spread. The northern cluster is still favored slightly more, probably tied to the key question of the northern stream short-wave. Due to the difficulty of getting a proper phase like depicted on the 00z Euro and some of the EPS members, think it's a lower probability outcome but still worth tracking because it's all we got. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

It remains a thread the needle setup. It's the old need a phase to work out sort of deal, which as we all know went great last winter. That said, the last two runs have had important changes toward increasing potential for a solid event. Most importantly, the northern stream wave is slower and not as strong, which allows the southern stream wave to come up and eventually phase in. 00z EPS is rolling out, so we'll see shortly how much ensemble member support the operational has. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk