RCNYILWX

I think you might have the wrong take here. Anyway, new thread for the potential event Saturday PM into Tuesday. There's additional potential later next week. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

This is a key point here, related to the potential for a swath of significant precip amounts: If the primary wave remains coherent/amped and juiced (with Pacific and Gulf moisture), there is plenty of latent heat release involved. Height rises out ahead of the wave aided by the latent heat release are part of the question of whether we can strike right balance between it and the confluence created by the strong west based -NAO. Can see it frequently on the east coast when there's blocking in play, and for the EC, there's the addition of Atlantic moisture and heating to add into the equation. Have seen it go both ways, but if the wave remains strong and juiced, it's unlikely to be total suppression city , just the location of the max precip swath modulated. If we do get a strong system out of this l, I do unfortunately expect a sharp gradient on the north and south side, inherent to this type of setup plus the likelihood of mesoscale banding due to a strong thermal gradient. For the reasons above, it's not at all surprising to see duds among the 51 member EPS at this range. What's nice is that it's a dispersive ensemble and we can see the various outcomes and glean confidence in or lose confidence in the preferred outcome. The 12z GEFS is mostly duds because it's too non-dispersive of an ensemble system. Edit: And I agree with @A-L-E-K that it is noteworthy for the EPS mean to show that large 6"+ swath at 10:1.

12z EPS individual members Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Just a note on the model discussion. This is not apples to apples but the GFS was hot garbage for the eastern big dog on December 17th. There was a fairly strong block that developed out ahead of it and the GFS was suppression city within the short range. The NAM, UKMET, GEMs, and ECMWF all far outperformed the operational GFS, and GFS v16 did much better than the op. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

New thread for this potential event, let's take the discussion over there. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'd prefer that shifted south too, riding the edge a bit here on the DuPage-Will border. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Ha, you know what I mean, showing that magnitude of system and next step is getting run to run consistency on the 18z ensemble, and 00z runs to really feel better about it. I think we can work with that south end because the -NAO may help in that respect.

The sweet spot between a strong system and the blocking preventing a warm cutter. Expecting some monster hits on the 12z EPS. Would like to see some southward spread as well. Quite a south end gradient on that run of the Euro for the I-80 and south crowd. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

WE TAKE Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

If anyone has links to some of the threads for the past greats (GHD I & II, etc) in the Great Lakes Ohio Valley area since the inception of American Weather forums, would be appreciated to post them here. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I wasn't going to post the pivotal Midwest snow map for the GEM but here it is. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

There's the warm advection phase Saturday into Sunday and then main wave comes out Sunday night-Monday night. Problem is the GFS is suppression city for the main wave. 12z GEM solution is a good hit for many north of US-24. Edit: 12z UKMET is suppressed with the main wave but not to the extent of the GFS.

GEM coming in hot for Sunday night into Monday. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The Euro would like a word with you based off its far better performance with last night's clipper. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I don't want to rule out us mixing at any point in that WAA regime. The setup looks rather similar to the late December event with better cold air available leading in. Coming so closely on the heels of departure of cold dry high pressure, we should snow decently down here. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

GFS still not playing ball with the advection snow on Saturday night-Sunday. Interesting it has a strong enough LLJ with such a weak sauce surface low/trough to keep everything farther north and cause mixing down here. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

06Z EPS Upper Midwest zoom individual members. Some good hits locally, some clunkers. Obviously would like to see the number of good hits on the members increase along with favorable trends in the operational models for the 12z cycle. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Thanks for creating the thread@Hoosier. A good way to let out some of the pent up frustration with these past couple winters haha. Usually every winter at some point I'll go back and read the AFDs leading up to GHD I. I know the storm threads for that were actually on Central/Western since GLOV sub didn't exist yet. Some of my favorite threads in this sub are for Jan 4-5, 2014 and GHD II, two of the best events for favorable trends in the short range for much of the Chicago metro. We really need an event like that, hopefully somehow it happens this winter. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That map is better than when I commented on the EPS yesterday or the day before. That large ridge extending north of Alaska is I believe an extension of a -WPO and probably owing to the -AO. So if the MJO doesn't lose amplitude from unfavorable phases and keeps going into 8-1-2, I could believe very cold air getting down sometime in February. Would think the active flow pattern should continue as the La Nina forcing continues I'm the Pacific. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

DAB here. Missed most of the goods all evening thus far. Might get clipped by the west side of the band as it drops southeast. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Still have nightmares of the March 2018 miss in a similarly pronounced west based -NAO pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Filling in a bit on KDVN Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The high ratios did verify on Sunday but QPF was overdone in some of the models, so the guidance showing generally a coating to up to an inch to locally 2" was right for the wrong reason. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

So I guess it would be up to me to start that thread? Does anyone have the links to past storm threads? I live in southeast Naperville in the west/southwest suburbs. With the late December snow to ice and the New Year's slopfest, probably had about 3" or so peak depth which compacted down but we kept a lot of that for a while until losing coverage in the unshaded and/or south facing areas over the past week or so. My front yard is north facing and shaded, so never went down to grass because it's pretty glacierized stuff. Now we're back to full cover with Sunday's snow, but varied depth from a coating to a couple inches where the snow/ice remains. Been just enough to do a lot of sledding lately and it's nice because there's a good sledding hill in the parkway behind my house. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Snowstorms drove my interest in the weather from a young age too because I grew up in NYC and experienced some of the legendary storms on the NESIS list. I literally wrote my college essay about how the Blizzard of 1996 caused my obsession with the weather. When the winter is frustrating, I try to take the good with the bad. To be honest, my ideal winter now would be lots of snow but temps not too cold. As great as winter 13-14 was, being frigid for that long got kind of old. So if it's not gonna snow, I'd rather it not be CAD. I try to find things of interest meteorology wise even when it's quieter than we'd all like. I think when it comes down to it, it's not worth getting worked up over something I can't control. This winter has made me appreciate snow for the little we've had because my soon to be 4 year old son loves sledding and with the decently persistent snow cover we've had since the late December event, have gotten out with him several times and also brought my almost 2 year old daughter out a few times. There's nothing like seeing the joy in my son when he looks outside and sees new snow, because it reminds me of how I always have been with snow since I was a kid. Regarding talking about classic snowstorms and legendary winters, I'd totally be up for a thread with that sort of discussion. Maybe could also include links to the threads of great winter events of the past since AmWx has been in existence. What do you say@Hoosier ? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk