yoda

SPC opens Day 3 severe bidding with SLGT risk i81 corridor west and MRGL for the rest of us

12z NAM looked a lil intriguing with its soundings at hrs 78 to 84 across the region. Granted it can change next run of course and its at range... but looks like our first real chance of severe

LWX AFD from this afternoon on Wednesday into Thursday KEY MESSAGE 2.. A strong cold front brings gusty winds, colder temperatures, and widespread shower/thunderstorm chances starting Wednesday. Not too much change in regards to timing or hazards for the midweek period. Still monitoring the deep digging upper level trough dropping down out the Great Lakes region as well as a piece of southern stream energy ejecting out of the southern Plains region. At the surface, will lay a strong cold frontal boundary which will flip the script when it comes to late Winter and early Spring. 6/12z guidance still has this front progged to move through the area some time late Wednesday into Thursday. As for severe weather, it will be highly dependent on timing with a focus remaining west of the Blue Ridge. This is the area where better instability and shear may be maximized given a lead shortwave that should touch off some convection over the mountains Wednesday afternoon as the northern stream trough tries to take a negative tilt. CSU learning machine probabilities remain around 15 to 30 percent for all severe hazards for the entirety of the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. NSSL probabilities are quite similar with a focus more on areas west of US-15 and out across the Allegheny Mountains. Meanwhile, SPC continues to highlight a 15 percent probability zone for portions of Garrett Co. MD during the Day 4 (Wednesday into Thursday). Storms will have plenty of fuel to work with as temperatures surge into the 70s and low 80s with dewpoint factors getting into the upper 50s and low 60s. Shear is a bit more uncertain with strong southwesterly flow at the surface ahead of the front and gusty northwesterly flow likely behind the front heading into the Thursday timeframe. Also, any early convection over the mountains combined with a later timing of the front (i.e Wednesday night into Thursday) could hamper convective output. Wind and heavy rainfall would be the primary threats for storms if they can develop Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The bigger story with the front will be the notable drop in temperatures heading into late week. Temperatures will take a 15 to 25 degree dive Thursday with highs ranging from the 30s over the mountains to low 60s east of I-95 and across southern MD/central VA Piedmont. Some anafrontal snow is even possible in the Alleghenies as the front departs Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Temperatures do level out Friday with highs in the upper 40s over northeast MD/the Alleghenies and mid to upper 50s elsewhere across the region. Similar values are expected this weekend despite another front passing through the region.

The 70 degree temperatures have captured me

Yuck at the 12z CMC at the end of its run... do not want

Learned from the best - Wilson

Seems could be interesting out west tomorrow afternoon into night? Afternoon discussion from LWX We`re expecting two rounds of storms tomorrow. The first round is expected to form within a surface trough just to the east of the Alleghenies during the mid-late afternoon hours. Model soundings show a fair amount of dry air in place aloft, and large scale forcing for ascent won`t be overly strong, so areal coverage with this first round of storms is only expected to be isolated to scattered in nature. If storms do become well established, the background environment will have enough instability (around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and shear (around 40 knots in the 0-6 km layer) to promote updraft rotation. Isolated instances of damaging winds or hail may be possible with these storms as they move eastward from the Potomac Highlands toward the I-81 corridor and then the Blue Ridge/Catoctins during the mid-late afternoon hours. Conditions will likely remain dry to the east of US-15 during the daylight hours. A second round of pre-existing storms will approach from the Ohio Valley, reaching the Allegheny Front around sunset. This round of storms could be well organized into a squall line, and may potentially be quite intense. With the loss of daytime heating, the trend will likely be downward with the strength of this activity as it moves into our area, but damaging winds may still be possible, especially along and west of the Allegheny Front. Large scale forcing for ascent may enable these storms to hold together in a weakened form as they move eastward across the forecast area during the first half of the night. As of now, SPC has Garrett County in Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, with locations further east to about US-15 in a Marginal Risk.

Interesting... I did not know you could do that. I will definitely look into this website more

Sounds like the Capitals are waving the white flag on this season... Dowd moved yesterday... Carlson this morning

Impossible. It precipitated in the desert?

Hmmm... sneaky severe this evening?

You can clearly see the blue sky

I see @EastCoast NPZ got an inch looks like Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 242 PM EST Mon Mar 02 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0130 PM Snow 2 E Stephens City 39.10N 78.18W 03/02/2026 M0.9 inch Frederick VA Trained Spotter

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 930 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503>506-VAZ039-040-051-053-054-501-502-505-506- 526-527-022030- District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Madison- Rappahannock-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Madison, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 930 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow midday and afternoon, accumulating around an inch on unpaved surfaces. Some slushy accumulation on paved surfaces possible. * WHERE...The Washington Metropolitan area, northern Virginia, and central Maryland. * WHEN...The steadiest snow is expected between noon and 5 PM this afternoon. * IMPACTS...In bands of heavier snow, road surfaces may become slushy or even snow covered for a brief period this afternoon. For this evening, any standing water or slush may freeze with temperatures around 30 to 32 degrees.

I am kind of surprised though not to see WWAs. They have been mentioning ice in the zones for a bit now... up to a tenth of an inch. I thought even a glaze brought out WWA criteria