yoda

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 MDZ003>006-008-011-503>508-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053-055-056- 501-502-505-506-526-527-WVZ051>053-070200- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0001.260408T0400Z-260408T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page- Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange- Culpeper-Fairfax-Stafford-Spotsylvania-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures 25 to 31 degrees possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northeast Maryland, central, northern, and northeast Virginia, and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

12z model suite doesn't look enticing for precipitation over the next two weeks. GFS is the "wettest"... CMC and Euro quite dry

This was in this mornings AFD from LWX High pressure will build to our north over the Great Lakes Tuesday, leading to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will run about 10 degrees below normal, with highs for most in the upper 40s and 50s (upper 30s to low 40s mountains). A northwesterly breeze of around 20 mph will make it feel even cooler. High pressure will become centered to our north over the Southern Tier of NY Tuesday night, with a surface ridge extending southward into our area. Skies will be clear, and winds should go light or calm, setting the stage for an ideal radiational cooling night. Temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing to the northwest of I-95, with lows in the 20s for many. We may be issuing Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings for Tuesday night into early Wednesday in some parts of our region. But this is what they said Sunday morning in the AFD Upper trough will swing across the northern Mid-Atlantic states Sunday night through Tuesday bringing chilly air for early Apr with highs 5 to 15 degrees cooler than normal. As strong Canadian high pressure settles in by Wednesday morning, expect cold temperatures with likelihood of frost and hard freeze. Since this is earlier than the median date of April 11 of the last Spring Freeze based on the latest 1991-2000 Climatology, no Frost and/or Freeze headlines are anticipated at this time

Huh... interesting

There won't be any frost/freeze products though from LWX

2015-2016 is acceptable

Pretty cool to see the moon out and distant lightning

SLGT risk for the region on 13z OTLK from SPC... 0/5/15

Maybe? Afternoon day 2 SPC disco .Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Along/south of a stalled surface front, ample diurnal heating amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints and limited inhibition should promote widely scattered thunderstorms from the middle OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic during the day. While midlevel flow will be modest, a subtle speed max glancing the area should contribute to around 25-30 kt of effective shear. This should promote a couple loosely organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts and isolated, marginally severe hail. A relatively higher corridor of severe potential is possible over northern VA and vicinity, though confidence in storm coverage and overall intensity was too low to upgrade at this time.

*looks at the front* i don't mind the rain, we need that... I don't need 40s in Aprii... From the morning LWX AFD. KEY MESSAGE 3...A frontal passage midway through next week will have potential to bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. Broad ridging is forecast to start breaking down early this week allowing an upper-level trough to progress eastward to the north of the region. Strong high pressure is likely to be anchored over the north-central Atlantic Ocean acting as a block to the east and southeast. A front associated with the trough is forecast to drop into the region from the north/northwest bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Uncertainty remains high on shower/thunderstorm coverage along with overall rainfall amounts associated with the boundary. Depending on the position and strength of the high over the Atlantic Ocean, the front could become hung up over our region becoming a focus for the continued development of showers and thunderstorms. This solution would bring the most rain to the region, especially if the front stalls over the northern parts of our region. If the high is further offshore and weaker, the front will be able to progress further south leading to less precipitation totals and coverage as well as much cooler temperatures. The large model spread in frontal position is narrowing at least for Thursday, with increasing confidence the front will push to the south. However, it may try to lift back north at some point toward the end of the week. Temperature spread remains large (between 40 and 85 degrees for highs) by the end of the week. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms with the frontal passage Wednesday may be tempered due to the lack stronger upper-level lift, but there may be enough instability and shear to allow for some stronger/organized thunderstorms.

Do not want - the temperatures, not the rain. Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 456 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026 DCZ001-290000- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 456 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026 .REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...Sunny. Highs in the lower 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. .WEDNESDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .THURSDAY...Rain likely. Much cooler with highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .FRIDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Get these 30s and 20s WCs outta here

If its going to be 90+ degrees... there better be a chance of storms too If its -10F... better be snowing. -10F and sunny skies can gtfo

Morning day 1 from SPC

Afternoon AFD from LWX Any low clouds or fog should burn off quickly tomorrow morning. Much warmer air will advect into the area tomorrow in southwesterly flow aloft, with 850 hPa temperatures surging to around 14-17 C. Strong daytime heating will lead to deep mixing, enabling temperatures to near record values for late March. Most of the forecast area should climb into the 80s, with some locations potentially even making it into the mid-upper 80s. A strong cold front will start to progress southward across PA during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Showers and storms are expected to develop along the front during the mid-late afternoon hours. Further south, model soundings show signs of capping with a remnant elevated mixed layer moving in aloft. This should help to prevent the development of storms ahead of the front, which will keep conditions dry through nearly all of the day in our forecast area. The storms over PA will likely drift southeastward toward northern Maryland around or shortly after dark. As low- levels stabilize with loss of daytime heating, the trend should be for these storms to gradually weaken as they move into our forecast area after dark. The environment to our north tomorrow across PA looks very favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms, with a CAPE/shear parameter space capable of producing both supercells and bowing segments. If the timing/location of the front were to trend faster/further south, we could get storms in that type of environment prior to stabilization. And even if storms do move in after dark, they could still potentially produce severe hail, even if they`re elevated. Tomorrow is certainly a day to watch for severe thunderstorms, but as it stands now, it may be a near miss for most of the area, with the capping serving as a potential saving grace. As of now, SPC has northern Maryland and most of the eastern panhandle of West Virginia outlooked in a Slight Risk, and the rest of the area outlooked in a Marginal Risk. SPC also has far northwestern portions of the forecast in a sig hail outlook (indicating the potential for 2+" hailstones). That hints at the potential high ceiling for the severity of storms tomorrow, if they maintain their strength southward into our forecast area. As of now, the most likely timing for storms looks to be between 7 PM and Midnight, with remnant showers moving southward along with the cold front through the entire forecast area later during the overnight hours. Winds will shift to out of the northwest behind the cold front on Monday. Conditions will dry out and temperatures will be much cooler (but near normal), with highs for most in the 50s and lower 60s (40s mountains). Winds will gust to around 25-35 mph out of the northwest