yoda

Pretty much my thoughts. I think we are waiting for another 10 days or so for any real threat.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO OVERSPREAD AREAS NORTH OF I-66/U.S. 50 ON FRIDAY... .As high pressure builds across Quebec, a steady stream of cold air will funnel southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time, moisture will overrrun a frontal boundary across the central Appalachians down into the Carolinas. As milder air will settle above the sub-freezing surface layer, a wintry mix consisting of freezing rain and sleet is likely over portions of the area. Travel impacts are likely where the wintry mix falls. MDZ004>006-011-503-505-506-VAZ505-260300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0030.251226T1700Z-251227T0500Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Western Loudoun- 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch, with closer to a trace to a few hundredths of an inch to the south of I-70. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From noon Friday to midnight EST Friday Night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is likely to overspread the area by midday Friday in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Freezing rain with some sleet mixing in will continue through the afternoon and evening. A bit more sleet can be expected closer to the Maryland-Pennsylvania border. Through the day, temperatures are expected to remain close to 32 degrees. Precipitation exits off to the northeast with some light drizzle or freezing drizzle possibly lingering into the early overnight hours.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO OVERSPREAD AREAS NORTH OF I-66/U.S. 50 ON FRIDAY... .As high pressure builds across Quebec, a steady stream of cold air will funnel southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time, moisture will overrrun a frontal boundary across the central Appalachians down into the Carolinas. As milder air will settle above the sub-freezing surface layer, a wintry mix consisting of freezing rain and sleet is likely over portions of the area. Travel impacts are likely where the wintry mix falls. MDZ008-507-508-260300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0030.251226T1900Z-251227T0800Z/ Cecil-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Cecil, Northwest Harford, and Southeast Harford Counties. * WHEN...From 2 PM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is likely to overspread the area by midday Friday in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Throughout the afternoon and evening, some snow could even mix in at times. Through the day, temperatures are expected to remain close to 32 degrees. Some freezing drizzle likely lingers into the first half of the night which may lead to additional slick travel.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO OVERSPREAD AREAS NORTH OF I-66/U.S. 50 ON FRIDAY... .As high pressure builds across Quebec, a steady stream of cold air will funnel southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time, moisture will overrrun a frontal boundary across the central Appalachians down into the Carolinas. As milder air will settle above the sub-freezing surface layer, a wintry mix consisting of freezing rain and sleet is likely over portions of the area. Travel impacts are likely where the wintry mix falls. MDZ003-502-VAZ027-028-030-031-507-WVZ050>053-055-502>504-260300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0030.251226T1500Z-251227T0400Z/ Washington-Central and Eastern Allegany-Shenandoah-Frederick VA- Warren-Clarke-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch, with closer to a trace to a few hundredths of an inch near U.S. 50. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northwest Virginia, and eastern panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 11 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is likely to overspread the area late Friday morning in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Freezing rain with some sleet mixing in will continue through the afternoon and evening. Through the day, temperatures are expected to remain close to 32 degrees before warming above freezing during the overnight hours.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO OVERSPREAD AREAS NORTH OF I-66/U.S. 50 ON FRIDAY... .As high pressure builds across Quebec, a steady stream of cold air will funnel southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time, moisture will overrrun a frontal boundary across the central Appalachians down into the Carolinas. As milder air will settle above the sub-freezing surface layer, a wintry mix consisting of freezing rain and sleet is likely over portions of the area. Travel impacts are likely where the wintry mix falls. MDZ501-510-260300- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0012.251226T1200Z-251227T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.IS.W.0004.251226T1300Z-251227T0600Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Eastern Garrett- 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations between two tenth and three tenths of an inch, locally near four tenths of an inch in a few spots. * WHERE...Eastern Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany Counties. * WHEN...From 8 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is likely to overspread the area Friday morning in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Freezing rain will continue through the day and into the evening before tapering to freezing drizzle overnight. Through the day, temperatures are expected to remain at or below 32 degrees before gradually warming overnight Friday. Morning temperatures on Saturday could return to near freezing which may lead to some re-freezing on exposed surfaces.

We are probably in a two week "transition" period as @WxUSAF mentioned in his post above mine. Probably average temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

Webb says we're screwed https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002755646454993016 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002759593269792869

Orioles fans https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/orioles-nearing-deal-to-acquire-shane-baz-from-rays.html

Somewhere on my old computer I have the model snowfall images for i think it was Jan 2016. Was that the one that had the 70 inches at IAD?

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1153 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503-504-VAZ026-027-029>031-036>040-053-054-501-505- 506-526-190100- /O.EXA.KLWX.WI.Y.0024.251219T1700Z-251220T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- 1153 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Washington DC, and portions of central Maryland, and central, northern, northwest, and western Virginia. * WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds may persist for several more hours Friday evening.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1153 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 MDZ003>006-008-011-505>508-VAZ028-WVZ050>053-055-190100- /O.CON.KLWX.WI.Y.0024.251219T1700Z-251220T0000Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Frederick VA-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy- 1153 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, north-central, northeast, and northern Maryland, northwest Virginia, and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty winds may persist for several more hours Friday evening. A few gusts to near 60 mph are possible, especially along and just east of higher terrain.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1153 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 MDZ502-509-VAZ503-504-507-508-WVZ502-504-506-190100- /O.UPG.KLWX.WI.Y.0024.251219T1100Z-251220T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0004.251219T1100Z-251220T0000Z/ Central and Eastern Allegany-Western Garrett-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Eastern Grant-Eastern Mineral-Eastern Pendleton- 1153 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany and Western Garrett Counties. In Virginia, Central Virginia Blue Ridge and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, and Eastern Highland and Western Highland Counties. In West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, and Eastern Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected above 3000 feet around or just before daybreak Friday. A second and more widespread surge will follow from about midday through late afternoon, with a third surge of wind possible Friday evening.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1153 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 MDZ501-510-WVZ501-503-505-190100- /O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0003.251219T1100Z-251220T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0004.251219T1100Z-251220T0300Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Eastern Garrett-Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- 1153 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Eastern Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany Counties. In West Virginia, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 10 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected above 3000 feet around or just before daybreak Friday. A second and more widespread surge will follow from about midday through late afternoon, with a third surge of wind expected Friday evening.

Oh yes... just cant wait for more wind tomorrow!

I see a near 5" LSR near Damascus