yoda

For tonight into early tomorrow (outside the WSW/WWA areas) afternoon disco from LWX Most hi-res guidance continues to hint at the potential for snow showers or squalls with some impacts north of I-66/US-50. Greatest potential in true snow squall warning criteria (winds > 25 mph, VSBY < 1/4 mile, and road temps below freezing) are favored in the Cumberland to Frederick, MD area. Will continue to monitor. Further south, a dry boundary layer is in place that gets drier overnight with FROPA. This is partially observed in the difference between the composite reflectivity in hi-res model guidance and the 1km AGL reflectivity. SFC Td depressions in most hi-res guidance >10F pre-frontal, and in the 15-20F range with FROPA. What this is getting at is it likely snows east of the mountains, but may not be true snow squall criteria. The confidence for accumulation east of the mountains still remains in question.

Just a little gusty at around 80mph

I think that may limit like big dog potential... but 4-8" type storms very much in play looking at that

Just wanted to quickly pop in and say thanks to @Carvers Gap @jaxjagman @*Flash* I read a lot of what you guys post in here, its very informative, detailed, and easy to understand. I really appreciate your posts and discussions. If i missed someone, my deepest apologies.

This is from Will on SNE. I like the look IMO

Who wants to start the January thread?

Pretty much my thoughts. I think we are waiting for another 10 days or so for any real threat.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO OVERSPREAD AREAS NORTH OF I-66/U.S. 50 ON FRIDAY... .As high pressure builds across Quebec, a steady stream of cold air will funnel southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time, moisture will overrrun a frontal boundary across the central Appalachians down into the Carolinas. As milder air will settle above the sub-freezing surface layer, a wintry mix consisting of freezing rain and sleet is likely over portions of the area. Travel impacts are likely where the wintry mix falls. MDZ004>006-011-503-505-506-VAZ505-260300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0030.251226T1700Z-251227T0500Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Western Loudoun- 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch, with closer to a trace to a few hundredths of an inch to the south of I-70. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From noon Friday to midnight EST Friday Night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is likely to overspread the area by midday Friday in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Freezing rain with some sleet mixing in will continue through the afternoon and evening. A bit more sleet can be expected closer to the Maryland-Pennsylvania border. Through the day, temperatures are expected to remain close to 32 degrees. Precipitation exits off to the northeast with some light drizzle or freezing drizzle possibly lingering into the early overnight hours.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO OVERSPREAD AREAS NORTH OF I-66/U.S. 50 ON FRIDAY... .As high pressure builds across Quebec, a steady stream of cold air will funnel southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time, moisture will overrrun a frontal boundary across the central Appalachians down into the Carolinas. As milder air will settle above the sub-freezing surface layer, a wintry mix consisting of freezing rain and sleet is likely over portions of the area. Travel impacts are likely where the wintry mix falls. MDZ008-507-508-260300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0030.251226T1900Z-251227T0800Z/ Cecil-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Cecil, Northwest Harford, and Southeast Harford Counties. * WHEN...From 2 PM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is likely to overspread the area by midday Friday in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Throughout the afternoon and evening, some snow could even mix in at times. Through the day, temperatures are expected to remain close to 32 degrees. Some freezing drizzle likely lingers into the first half of the night which may lead to additional slick travel.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO OVERSPREAD AREAS NORTH OF I-66/U.S. 50 ON FRIDAY... .As high pressure builds across Quebec, a steady stream of cold air will funnel southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time, moisture will overrrun a frontal boundary across the central Appalachians down into the Carolinas. As milder air will settle above the sub-freezing surface layer, a wintry mix consisting of freezing rain and sleet is likely over portions of the area. Travel impacts are likely where the wintry mix falls. MDZ003-502-VAZ027-028-030-031-507-WVZ050>053-055-502>504-260300- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0030.251226T1500Z-251227T0400Z/ Washington-Central and Eastern Allegany-Shenandoah-Frederick VA- Warren-Clarke-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch, with closer to a trace to a few hundredths of an inch near U.S. 50. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northwest Virginia, and eastern panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 11 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is likely to overspread the area late Friday morning in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Freezing rain with some sleet mixing in will continue through the afternoon and evening. Through the day, temperatures are expected to remain close to 32 degrees before warming above freezing during the overnight hours.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO OVERSPREAD AREAS NORTH OF I-66/U.S. 50 ON FRIDAY... .As high pressure builds across Quebec, a steady stream of cold air will funnel southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time, moisture will overrrun a frontal boundary across the central Appalachians down into the Carolinas. As milder air will settle above the sub-freezing surface layer, a wintry mix consisting of freezing rain and sleet is likely over portions of the area. Travel impacts are likely where the wintry mix falls. MDZ501-510-260300- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0012.251226T1200Z-251227T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.IS.W.0004.251226T1300Z-251227T0600Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Eastern Garrett- 157 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations between two tenth and three tenths of an inch, locally near four tenths of an inch in a few spots. * WHERE...Eastern Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany Counties. * WHEN...From 8 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is likely to overspread the area Friday morning in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Freezing rain will continue through the day and into the evening before tapering to freezing drizzle overnight. Through the day, temperatures are expected to remain at or below 32 degrees before gradually warming overnight Friday. Morning temperatures on Saturday could return to near freezing which may lead to some re-freezing on exposed surfaces.

We are probably in a two week "transition" period as @WxUSAF mentioned in his post above mine. Probably average temperatures in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

Webb says we're screwed https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002755646454993016 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2002759593269792869

Orioles fans https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/orioles-nearing-deal-to-acquire-shane-baz-from-rays.html