yoda

@EastCoast NPZ getting good rains

Like the term squeegee line lol... also since when did NWS utilize Nadocast? Afternoon disco from LWX SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A potent trough of low pressure will move into the northern/eastern Great Lakes Sunday morning while it`s associated cold front pushes east from the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, high pressure will reside off the southeast U.S coast leading to increased southerly flow across the region. With the tightened pressure gradient between the departing high and incoming front/trough of low pressure expect a windy end to the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are expected for most of the day as moisture steadily increases across the region. Mid and high level clouds will spread west to east from the Alleghenies Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Some filter breaks of sun will be observed early east of the I-81 corridor with any rain activity likely holding off until after sunset. 06Z/12Z CAMS have slowed a bit from previous model solutions. As it stands now, shower activity looks to develop west of the Alleghenies/I-81 corridor late Sunday afternoon before spreading east toward the metros late Sunday evening into Sunday night. Most guidance illustrates a frontal passage within the 2z-8z/10pm-4am window for areas east of I-81 and toward the I-95 metros. This is the time of greatest moisture surge and perhaps some subtle instability as the trough axis takes on a negative tilt. CAPE values look to remain less than 300 j/kg with bulk effective shear values running between 40-50 kts+. Forcing will be strong especially along the front. This will allow for both strong background winds and a strong wind field aloft to mix down to surface with any convective elements that form along the front. 06z/12z guidance continues to develop a line of gusty moderate to heavy showers that push from west to east across the area late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as well, especially west of I-95 where slightly better instability noted. SPC has expanded it`s Day 2 Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) to encompass the entire area Sunday afternoon. The main threat is damaging wind gusts although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given low level SRH 0-1km values around 100-200 m2/s2 and potential meso-low overhead. Both CSU, CIPS, and NSSL probabilities focus 5 to 15 percent probs for damaging winds as a squeegee line of gusty showers push through late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Nadocast has 2 percent probs over northern and central MD mainly covering the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning. Additional showers are possible through Monday morning behind the cold front as the negatively tilted upper-level trough passes through. This activity will likely be short-lived with dry air working back in as high pressure builds from the south Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

Fwiw NOUS41 KLWX 171207 PNSLWX MDZ501-502-509-510-VAZ025>027-503-504-WVZ050-055-501>506-180015- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 807 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY... Based on freezing temperatures last night into this morning, the growing season has been declared over for the following counties: In Maryland: Garrett and Allegany In Virginia: Highland, Rockingham, Augusta, and Shenandoah In West Virginia: Pendleton, Grant, Mineral, Hardy, and Hampshire As a result, no Frost/Freeze headlines will be issued for these areas until Spring 2026. $$ BELAK

SPC is monitoring Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front are forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley at the start of the period. This convection should have a negative impact on instability across the much of the moist sector during the day. In areas that are not impacted, weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from Georgia and the Carolinas into the central Appalachians. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely result in a severe threat. A potential for wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible. At this time, uncertainty is substantial as to exactly where the greatest severe potential will occur. As new runs come in, an upgrade to Slight may be needed. A mid-level low is forecast to move across the Northeast on Monday, as the associated trough moves into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of southern New England during the late morning and early afternoon before the front moves offshore.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 942 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 MDZ003-501-502-509-510-VAZ025>031-503-504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506- 152145- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0004.251017T0600Z-251017T1300Z/ Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 942 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 to 32 degrees are possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northwest and western Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coolest temperatures are likely in the valleys. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

That's a weird looking radar

Dallas loses to Carolina... Philly lost Thursday night... big big game for Commanders tomorrow night

Franklin fired https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46573030/penn-state-fires-head-coach-james-franklin-sources-say

@WxUSAF Franklin fired https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46573030/penn-state-fires-head-coach-james-franklin-sources-say

Allar done for the year https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/penn-state-becomes-first-fbs-team-in-last-30-years-to-lose-consecutive-games-as-at-least-a-20-point-favorite/ https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25259508-drew-allar-out-season-after-suffering-leg-injury-psus-loss-northwestern

Nice pictures. You might be out by my family's large farm out there if you are near Luray

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A coastal low pressure system will take shape off of the Southeast U.S. Coast tonight through midday Saturday, before moving north along the Eastern Seaboard Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. An occasional shower or sprinkles could evolve Saturday into Saturday evening from southeast to northwest across the region. A light to moderate steadier rainfall could arrive in several bands overnight Saturday through Sunday night as the coastal low gets closer to the mid- Atlantic region and nearly stalls. Rain amounts could average 1 to 2 inches along and east of a line from Hagerstown to Warrenton to Fredericksburg. To the west of this line, one-half to three-quarters of an inch. The heaviest rainfall could reach the 3 to 3.5 inch amounts in places. The interaction between the departing area of high pressure off the New England Coast and the coastal low pressure system will result in stronger northeast winds to develop and persist through much of the weekend. An elongated trough of low pressure, accompanied by a few mid-level disturbances, will help to tighten the pressure gradient Saturday through Sunday to result in stronger northeasterly winds. Northeast winds will increase late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon with sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph gusting 25 to 30 mph. Winds could gust 35 to 40 mph over land within a several miles of the Chesapeake Bay shoreline. A big uncertainty remains in the track and intensity of coastal low, simultaneously, as it moves up the coast. Also, to make matters even less certain, is the interaction or phasing of the mid- level disturbances with the coastal low and the exact location of that occurrence. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Breezy and wet conditions likely continue into Monday, and perhaps even into the first half of Tuesday, as the coastal low meanders off the Delmarva Peninsula before eventually pulling further offshore on Tuesday. There seems to be a decent amount of agreement that precipitation should taper off by Tuesday afternoon as the low shift further to the east. However, it remain close enough that winds may still remain elevated for a couple days thereafter.

12z CMC very rainy too... retrograde back toward us on Monday

This is the new CMC precip maps... the old ones no longer work https://eccc-msc.github.io/msc-animet/?layers=GDPS.ETA_PN;0.75;0;1;0;1,GDPS.DIAG_NW_PT3H;0.75;0;1;0;1&extent=-11358064,1081878,-7522829,7804193&overlays=Boundaries&range=80,26,l,PT3H Pretty cool you can zoom way in too on the new precip maps as well

Piggybacking on this... the precip maps have changed for CMC https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html This doesn't exist anymore. Got an upgrade looks like... New link is there at the old one