yoda

Didn't realize the forecasted high temperature for Tuesday is now the mid 80s

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ003>006-507-VAZ028>031-036>040-050-051-501-505-WVZ051>053-030015- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0004.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- Frederick-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 to 36 degrees will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northern Maryland, central, northern, and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ502-VAZ025>027-507-508-WVZ050-055-502-504-030015- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0005.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Central and Eastern Allegany-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Eastern Mineral- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 degrees expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany County. In Virginia, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Shenandoah, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties. In West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, and Hardy Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 MDZ501-509-510-VAZ503-504-WVZ501-503-505-506-030015- /O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0004.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0005.260503T0600Z-260503T1300Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 1207 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Eastern Garrett, Extreme Western Allegany, and Western Garrett Counties. In Virginia, Eastern Highland and Western Highland Counties. In West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton, Western Grant, Western Mineral, and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Interesting.... morning day 2 from SPC ..Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic... Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain overspreading the region early in the day may also impede destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

Hmmmm... afternoon AFD from LWX about Wednesday. Granted we will likely fail... but only chance for a while The better chance for showers and some thunderstorms would be on Wednesday as a brunt of the upper trough moves toward the Eastern Seaboard. A remnant MCV will likely be wrapped up in this larger scale trough, the timing and amplitude of which will dictate the extent of any strong to severe weather in the Mid- Atlantic. As is typical with these features, their finer scale details (as well as leftover upstream convective debris) cast uncertainty into the extent of heating/instability. Conditionally speaking, increasing winds throughout the lower/mid troposphere on Wednesday as this wave approaches. Large scale ascent also increases. The most likely area for appreciable instability to develop would be southwest of a line from roughly Elkins WV to Ocean City MD. This area is closer to the source of low-level moisture return, and may see some better heating southeast of more abundant clouds and in the vicinity of a developing warm frontal feature. Resultant thunderstorm activity may tend to track along the warm front later in the day, again contingent upon the extent of available instability. Some risk for gusty to damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two may develop, with an even more conditional risk of hail should stronger more discrete cells develop.

Surprised that its been 15 years since the April 27 2011 event... popped up on my FB memories

Cell east of FDK looks interesting in Maryland

Winner?

A few rumbles and some rain here

I hope not

Bye Caps

Would be a shame if the Capitals lost today in regulation to the Penguins and the Flyers beat the Jets

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 MDZ003>006-008-011-503>508-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-053-055-056- 501-502-505-506-526-527-WVZ051>053-070200- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0001.260408T0400Z-260408T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page- Warren-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange- Culpeper-Fairfax-Stafford-Spotsylvania-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 149 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures 25 to 31 degrees possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northeast Maryland, central, northern, and northeast Virginia, and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

12z model suite doesn't look enticing for precipitation over the next two weeks. GFS is the "wettest"... CMC and Euro quite dry