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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Southeast States... An intense upper trough continues to deepen over the Mid MS Valley, with its associated surface cold front surging eastward across the Appalachians and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic. An active line of thunderstorms is accompanying the front from GA into western SC/NC/VA. Low-level winds are very strong along and ahead of these storms, encouraging the risk of numerous severe wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes along the line. Clusters of thunderstorms have been developing ahead of the line as well, in a moist and strongly sheared environment. These storms will also pose a severe/tornado risk through the day as the primary large-scale ascent arrives. ...Mid Atlantic States into NY... Farther north, low-level moisture is a little more limited and CAPE values will be slightly lower. Nevertheless, intense low and mid level wind fields will be present across this region as the cold front approaches from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to strengthen through the late morning across west-central VA into central NY/PA and spread eastward to the coast by early evening. Forecast soundings across this area show very large low-level shear values that will favor the risk of widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible - especially from MD southward where the greatest low-level moisture will be present. In the wake of the main convection, secondary cyclogenesis is forecast to occur late this afternoon along the cold front over VA/MD. The initial storms will remove most of the low-level moisture/instability, but the extreme intensity of the low-level winds fields and large-scale forcing could result in a secondary risk of damaging winds from low-topped showers and thunderstorms after dark. This threat could spread northeastward into eastern PA/NJ and perhaps southern New England. ..Hart/Lyons.. 03/16/2026

Still a hold with everything on the 1300z SPC OTLK... 15 tor/5 hail/ 60 wind

Morning discussion from LWX DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front pushes across the forecast area Monday, bringing gusty winds and potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant damaging winds and tornadoes. A possibly high-impact severe weather event may unfold across the Mid-Atlantic region today, especially during the afternoon to evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Moderate Risk (Level 4 out of 5) area which extends from east of the Blue Ridge Mountains to the Chesapeake Bay. The one exception to this is northeastern Maryland which is in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) given the cooler bay waters could weaken approaching convection. The early morning surface analysis depicts a stout cyclone racing across northern Indiana which is accompanied by a squall line which has jumped out ahead of the cold front. Closer to the local area, a wavy frontal zone arcs from just south of St. Marys County westward across Richmond and back into southern West Virginia. While surface wind vectors are out of the east, the primarly low-level steering flow is from the south. Light overrunning showers continue to lift northward through the region. The combination of weak forcing and ample low-level stability is yielding rather scant rainfall totals, generally averaging under 0.10 inches. Otherwise, low stratus will remain a fixture in the early morning forecast which comes with temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. Ample poleward flow within the warm conveyor belt should help push this warm front north of the Mason-Dixon Line by just after daybreak. While the 00Z IAD sounding is now outdated, its vertical wind profile indicates precisely why the severe threat has a high ceiling today. The 0-6 km wind fields were characterized by substantial cyclonic turning of the winds with height, coupled with surface backed flow. In the net, this sounding yielded a 0-1 km storm-relative helicity of 506 m2/s2 which is off the charts. However, the profile lacked any instability, particularly headed toward the more stable overnight hours. Despite only being 12 to 18 hours out, the 00Z high-resolution model suite continues to show timing and evolution differences. There are a couple of areas to keep a close eye on: (1) The squall line racing across eastern Kentucky/Ohio right now (331 AM) and (2) The low stratus deck in place. In terms of recovery, this low cloud deck will need to erode to allow the 500 to 750 J/kg of surface-based CAPE to materialize. All signs point toward gradual erosion of these stratus clouds, but it may take until after the noon hour. Even then, these could just be breaks in the clouds. Any additional insolation through the day will help increase instability in the presence of substantial vertical shear (0-6 km values around 55 to 65 knots). The other aspect of the forecast references the upstream squall line. How long this holds on and its cirrus canopy overspreading the region will also play some roles in how convective development evolves. With the degree of deep-layer shear in place, any of the pre- frontal discrete cells will pose a risk of becoming a supercell. These would be most conducive to producing a tornado, particularly if the enlarged 0-1 km and 0-3 km hodographs hold as true as forecast soundings depict. However, some of the high-resolution guidance show a slew of cells firing up at once which would favor more competition amongst them. This would diminish the tornado risk as multicell convection dominates. At the same time, another squall line is likely to form off the higher terrain this afternoon. While the vertical shear vector does not align perpendicular to the forming line, enough angle between the two should favor evolution into a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). These are prone to producing spin up tornadoes along any kinks in the line. Where this line bows out is where the 70 to 80 mph wind gust possibliity will be maximized. All of this slides eastward at a fairly hefty speed, perhaps 40 to 50 mph. Severe convection is expected to near the I-95 corridor during the evening rush hour before exiting the Chesapeake Bay by the early/mid evening hours. Some weakening is possible east of I-95 as the system begins to ingest the colder Chesapeake Bay waters. Outside of convection, conditions will be gusty today as a deep surface low tracks across the Great Lakes. Strengthening southerly flow may gust to 30 to 40 mph, with gusts closer to 50 mph in the mountains. Additionally, this also could occur in northeastern Maryland given this region stays in the warm sector longer and perhaps free of convection. Wind Advisories are in place across these areas which may see 50 mph gusts outside of any convection. Eventually a powerful cold front will usher in a cold and blustery air mass to the region. Gusts may be strong enough in the mountains to support additional Wind Advisories. All and all, ensure everyone has multiple ways to receive hazardous weather information from the National Weather Service. When it comes to Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, know where your safe place is and remain there until the storm has moved through and alerts have ended.

True... but the text posted above also mentions potential for strong long track tornadoes

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid Atlantic today. There is potential that a couple of storms could become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will maintain amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Rockies into early Tuesday and beyond. At the same time, it appears that downstream ridging will undergo further amplification just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with only very slow eastward progression of large-scale troughing in between, across the Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard. It does appear that one significant short wave perturbation will gradually pivot through the base of the troughing, toward the Cumberland Plateau during the day today, before rapidly accelerating northward near the Appalachians toward southwestern Quebec this evening through the overnight hours. Models suggest that this will eventually provide support for a rapidly deepening secondary surface cyclone across Quebec, downstream of an occluding and weakening cyclone across the lower Great Lakes vicinity. Surface troughing ahead of the trailing cold front is also forecast to undergo notable deepening to the east of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge today, and it appears that a rather sharp surface pressure fall/rise couplet will develop and overspread the northern Mid Atlantic coast late this afternoon and evening with the passage of the trough and trailing cold front. The cold front may clear all the Atlantic Seaboard, but perhaps portions of southern Florida and the Keys, by 12Z Tuesday. ...Atlantic Seaboard... Low-level moisture return is underway across the southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard. By early this afternoon, it appears that 60+ F surface dew points will advect as far north as the higher terrain of central through northeastern Pennsylvania, with dew points perhaps as high as the lower/mid 60s F across eastern North Carolina and Virginia. In advance of a pre-frontal squall line, which may be ongoing and beginning to spread to the lee of the southern Appalachians through the eastern Gulf Coast states at the outset of the period, it appears that destabilization and large-scale ascent may support scattered new thunderstorm development fairly early in the day. The extent to which this may impact further destabilization through late afternoon remains unclear. Destabilization may also be impacted by relatively warm air/weak lapse rates in mid/upper-levels, as models suggest that cold air aloft will tend to lag to the west of the surface cold front. Even so, forecast soundings suggest that, with breaks in the overcast, at least weak boundary-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg is possible in the warm sector across the Mid Atlantic. In the presence of very strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 50-60+ kt and strong to extreme low-level shear, including at least modest clockwise curvature, the environment appears potentially conducive to the evolution fast moving supercells with potential to produce strong tornadoes. Barring much interference from other storms, which remains uncertain at this time, at least a couple of these could become long track, given the storm motions. Otherwise, trailing this activity, the lee surface trough/cold front might become a focus for a developing line of storms capable of promoting the downward transfer of momentum with potential to produce widespread damaging wind gusts. Farther south, it appears that the initial squall line may be maintained or re-intensify, with a continuing risk for strong to severe wind gusts and potential for tornadoes into and across the southern Atlantic coast. ..Kerr/Thornton.. 03/16/2026

We are still a go per SPC new Day 1

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/

Latest tornado watch issued for KY and IN https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0058.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 58 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southern Indiana Central and Northern Kentucky * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 825 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...A severe squall line is forecast to rapidly move east-northeast across the Watch area this evening into tonight. Damaging gusts will likely be the most prevalent hazard, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible with embedded mesovortices within the squall line.

Stafford and Spotsylvania closed - but are doing asynchronous learning online

This is on their page Important Message: 3/15/2026 at 6:40 PM -- Refresh page to update message UPDATE: CODE BLUE – The Weather Forecast Is Getting More Serious! EARLY DISMISSAL for Monday, March 16 The National Weather Service is expressing increasing concern about the probability of severe weather on Monday. This is projected to be more significant than originally thought. Our area should be prepared for significant thunderstorms, high winds, hail and the potential for damaging tornadoes. The timing of the most severe weather is projected to coincide with our normal school dismissal schedule, bus routes across the county and the start of many after-school activities, including athletics and practices.

Montgomery County public schools just declared early dismissal

The big school district dominoes have started to fall... Fairfax just declared 3 hour early dismissal Prince William two hour early dismissal Faquier County early dismissal Nothing yet from Loudoun but that should be coming soon

Charles County schools 2 hour early closing King George (VA) schools closing at noon