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yoda

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About yoda

  • Birthday 09/30/1986

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KIAD
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  • Location:
    West Springfield, VA

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  1. yoda
    I don't always chase tornadoes, but when I do, I zero-meter them
  2. yoda
    Those who know better can correct me... but 18z RRFS sim radar looks ugly. Looks like warm sector prefrontal sups appear in the afternoon with a QLCS right around sunset moving through the region
  3. yoda
    Also, not saying we will get one here, but the derecho definition has changed https://x.com/evan_bentley/status/2032572486982791628?s=20
  4. yoda
    LWX afternoon AFD DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front will arrive Monday, bringing strong winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms. The Mid Atlantic should be in the warm sector of a powerful low pressure system over the Great Lakes on Monday. A deep upper trough pushing east of the Mississippi Valley will be taking on a negative tilt. Winds throughout the atmosphere will be very strong, along with notable low level wind shear (though more speed than direction). Dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s and modest mid level lapse rates will limit instability but there should still be enough to support convection. The thermodynamic profile could be one of the primary factors into just how significant the severe weather is. There is some threat for some leading cellular development in the warm sector which could pose a wind and tornado risk. Then, a squall line is likely to develop ahead of the sharp cold front. Damaging winds, some potentially significant, will be a threat with the squall line. A QLCS tornado threat could also be present, although the shear vectors will be more parallel to the line vs. the more favorable perpendicular. Seasonally high precipitable water will also result in heavy rain, although storms will be moving quickly. Timing is still a bit uncertain, but the most favorable conditions combined with afternoon/early evening timing are projected east of the Blue Ridge. SPC has highlighted a somewhat rare 30 percent day 4 severe outlook for this area. Besides the convective winds, gradient winds will also be strong immediately ahead of and behind the front which could cause additional localized tree damage and/or complicate recovery efforts. Cold air will be rushing in immediately following the frontal passage. At a minimum, the Allegheny Mountains will change to snow for a time in upslope conditions. It remains uncertain if any postfrontal precip lingers to the east long enough to change over.
  5. yoda
    They don't... unless absolutely necessary
  6. yoda
    I don't remember SPC ever updating a Day 4-8 disco before? @high risk @andyhb Day 4-8 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z AMENDED TO EXPAND D4/MONDAY THREAT AREAS ...DISCUSSION... ...Updated discussion for D4... The majority of deterministic and ensemble model guidance agree on a deep midlevel trough and associated cold front that will move eastward across the Appalachians and to the Atlantic coast by Tuesday morning. Severe storms could be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the northeast Gulf coast into GA. The warm sector, characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s, will expand northward (generally east of the Appalachians) through the day as far north as PA. Though clouds could limit downstream surface heating somewhat, very strong wind profiles and focused forcing for ascent will favor a continuation of convection along the front, as well as pre-frontal convection, with the potential to produce relatively widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes.
  7. yoda
    The image yes
  8. yoda
    Um ok then https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/2032516682770485733 https://x.com/MyRadarWX/status/2032516337373712714
  9. yoda
    Finally came out here... URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 327 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016-503>506-VAZ053>055-501-502-505-506- 526-527-132300- /O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-260313T2300Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 327 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...The Washington Metropolitan area, northern and central Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
  10. yoda
    So is Matthew Cappucci https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/2032441555785539939
  11. yoda
    Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-141000- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Wind Advisories are in effect for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains through tonight. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible, which could lead to isolated wind damage and power outages. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible on Monday, some of which could produce significant damage in spots, particularly east of the Blue Ridge. Other severe hazards are possible as well. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-141000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Wind gusts could approach gale-force over the waters this afternoon into the evening, particularly closer to shore. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible on Monday, some of which could produce significant damage in spots, particularly south of I-70. Other severe hazards are possible as well.
  12. yoda
    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic. Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast. Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA, and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z. There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA. Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.
  13. yoda
    Oh okay then
  14. yoda
    LWX already talking it up for Monday (this morning AFD) KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front will arrive Monday, bringing strong winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms. A strong cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across the western Great Lakes will cross the area Monday. Better moisture recovery is expected ahead of this front compared to the one tonight which will result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Given favorable wind speeds aloft and modest instability for mid-March, there is a noteworthy threat for severe weather. The storm mode looks mostly linear this time with a QLCS of sorts favored in nearly all extended guidance. While the kinematics look a lot stronger with this next system, there is still a high degree of uncertainty with the thermodynamic environment and the exact timing of the frontal passage with recent trends showing an earlier frontal passage prior to peak diurnal heating. SPC has a 15% contour on Day 4, which is not super common in the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous AI and ML guidance continue to paint a moderate to high end ceiling for damaging winds with this frontal passage on Monday as well. Regardless of severe weather, strong winds will accompany this front both in the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment
  15. yoda
    Afternoon AFD from LWX on the threat KEY MESSAGE 3...Another strong cold front will arrive early next week, bringing strong winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms. A warm front will lift toward the area Sunday ahead of a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes. Most of the day should remain dry, but showers will likely move into the area Sunday night. Increasing southeast to south winds will keep temperatures above normal. A strong cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across the western Great Lks will cross the area Monday. Better moisture recovery is expected ahead of this front compared to the one Friday night to result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Model trends during the past 24 hrs have shown lower pressure values locally across the area, stronger wind speeds aloft, and better destabilization resulting in an increasing threat for severe weather. The storm mode looks mostly linear this time as opposed to supercells, but the magnitude of the 850-500 mb winds is 20-30 kt stronger than it was yesterday (Wednesday). While the kinematics look a lot stronger with this next system, there is still a high degree of uncertainty with the thermodynamic environment and the exact timing of the frontal passage with recent trends showing an earlier frontal passage prior to peak diurnal heating. Regardless of severe weather, strong winds will accompany this front both in the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment.
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