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Tornado Watch up out for our NW parts of CWA

When will watches be issued?

DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Today`s forecast remains a very challenging one in regards to the potential for severe thunderstorms. At this point, there`s a wide range of potential solutions on the table, with very low confidence in which solution will ultimately verify. However, ahead of any thunderstorm threat, very warm temperatures again this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Record high temperatures may again be in jeopardy (see Climate section below for more information). This is ahead of a powerful cold front, which will bring a substantial change to the weather thereafter. Now, shifting gears to the more pressing topic, which is today`s severe weather threat. First, current conditions differ a bit from the previous forecast, with no morning convection to deal with at this time anywhere in our forecast area. Looking upstream though, a piece of shortwave energy branching off of the southern stream energy over the southern Plains sparked a few showers overnight across the MS River Valley, but those never really got going. However, there is some cloud debris from this activity that is heading in our general direction, currently over the OH Valley. The more potent convection has generally followed the evolution portrayed form the 00z NAM, keeping us clear from convection this morning, unlike some of the global guidance. Latest runs of the HRRR are also capturing this pretty well, so at least for now, that may be a good point to start from. Now, looking into the future, there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the evolution today, but the lack of substantial convection this morning does lend me to believe that we don`t get completely capped today, so will lean generally in that direction with this morning`s forecast. The primary feature at play today is a potent northern stream trough, which will continue to amplify as it tracks eastward from the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes today. A corresponding surface low will deepen as it tracks northeastward from Lower Michigan across the Lower Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley. The low-level mass response to the deepening cyclone will lead to strengthening low-mid level winds, as a 700 mb jet of 50-70 knots develops over the Ohio Valley this morning before spreading over our area by peak heating this afternoon. Southerly flow at low-levels will draw deeper moisture (low 60s dewpoints) northward into the area, which when combined with daytime heating (surface temps climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s) will lead to surface-based destabilization (MLCAPE values around 500-1500 J/kg). Assuming that storms occur, the environment in place with MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and effective bulk shear values of around 50 knots (with nearly all of it below 700 mb) will be very favorable for the development of severe storms. Per the most recent guidance, and using the guidance with the best current initialization, this is the current thinking for convective evolution today. First, the showers over the OH Valley are beginning to increase in coverage, but are generally moving towards PA and should largely stay north of our are this morning. Some clouds are likely to move into our area as a result. The biggest question is, will they clear out enough to realize the aforementioned CAPE value this afternoon? Looking at forecast soundings, even in those that don`t really initiate convection, leads me to believe we will, and that the storms moving out of central WV into our region by early-mid afternoon do have a decent chance to maintain or redevelop on our side of the Allegheny Front. Assuming this does happen, the available shear/instability support both multicell structures, as well as discrete supercell structures. All hazards will be possible, including tornadoes with any storms this afternoon. The environment in place will make damaging winds possible with any storms that form. However, that threat would likely be maximized in scenarios that produce a more linear convective mode, with a QLCS or smaller bowing segments. A more cellular mode would likely lead to supercells, a greater threat for both severe hail and tornadoes, and lesser areal coverage of damaging winds compared to a linear mode. Storms spread east through the afternoon and towards the I-95 corridor by this evening. The eastward extent is also in question, and will likely depend on what from convection takes. The Storm Prediction Center maintained the SLGT risk for severe today, but did expand their 5% tornado probability outline for most of the area, and maintained the CIG1 hatching area (suggesting a reasonable maximum tornado intensity of EF-2, if a tornado were to occur). That hatched area with 5% probs is an indication of the level of uncertainty still in the forecast, but also the high-end nature if things do tailor towards the worst-case scenario. They also have a 5 percent hail contour, and a 30% wind contour (which is driving the SLGT risk category). There is no CIG 1 hatching for wind, but hurricane force gusts (74+ mph) are needed to justify wind hatching. It wouldn`t be a shock to see some 60-70 mph gusts in any bowing segments. The main line of showers that will accompany the actual cold front itself will largely fizzle into showers with a shift in synoptic winds in its wake. This is because it comes through overnight, with no instability left to work with. A brief summary of the main takeaways follows below: -Forecast uncertainty is very high tomorrow. Plausible scenarios range from no severe thunderstorms at all, to a very impactful severe thunderstorm event. -Any storms that do form this afternoon will likely turn severe, posing at least a threat for damaging winds, and potentially large hail and tornadoes too (if the storm mode is supercellular). -The timing of the most intense storms is expected to be in the afternoon and evening hours, with the strongest storms (if they occur at all) expected to move through the I-95 corridor between roughly 3 and 8 PM. -A squall line will likely approach from the Ohio Valley and track toward the Alleghenies tomorrow evening, but will likely be weakening as it does so. Any severe threat with this line will likely stay confined to along/west of the Allegheny Front.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 532 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-120945- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 532 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Severe thunderstorms are possible today, most likely between 4 PM and 9 PM. Severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, a few instances of large hail, and a few tornadoes which could even be strong. Monitor the latest forecast for updates and watches, and be sure to have a way to receive warnings promptly. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Wind gusts could approach gale-force over the waters on Friday afternoon into Friday evening, particularly closer to shore. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon.

In all 3 "zones" of the HWO from last night DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Multiple rounds of scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, most likely between 2 PM and 10 PM Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, a few instances of large hail, and a couple tornadoes which could even be strong. Monitor the latest forecast for updates and watches, and be sure to have a way to receive warnings promptly. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed Wednesday

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Northern-stream trough is digging east-southeast across the northern Rockies/High Plains early this morning and should advance into the upper MS Valley by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, then increases in intensity as it moves across lower MI during the afternoon. Large-scale height falls will overspread the Great Lakes/OH-TN Valley region as southwesterly flow strengthens across the downstream warm sector. Latest model guidance suggests the sharp cold front associated with this feature will extend across lower MI-central IL-northern MO at the start of the period. This boundary will serve as a primary focus for thunderstorm development through the period. By mid day, the front will have surged into northwest OH-central IN and modest boundary layer heating is expected across the warm sector downstream. Current thinking is modest destabilization will be noted across much of the OH/TN Valley such that MLCAPE values should be on the order of 1500 J/kg within a strongly sheared environment. Forecast soundings support this and supercells are expected to develop, in addition to possible line segments and clusters. Large hail is possible with supercells, along with damaging winds and a risk for a few tornadoes. This activity will spread east toward the Middle Atlantic by late afternoon.

5% tor also shifted ESE

SPC new Day 1 still holds for now... adds 15 hail and moves 30 wind east

So... Wiz played Adebayo tonight pretty much

Sources claim Crosby failed physical

Wow... LWX went all out with a long, detailed, and excellent afternoon discussion for tomorrow KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Severe Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. - 2) Well above normal temperatures through Wednesday afternoon. - 3) A series of cold fronts crossing the area into early next week will lead to multiple temperature swings. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Tomorrow`s forecast is an extremely challenging one. At this point, there`s a wide range of potential solutions on the table, with very low confidence in which solution will ultimately verify. Forecast details follow below... A potent northern stream trough will continue to amplify as it tracks eastward from the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes during the day tomorrow. A corresponding surface low will deepen as it tracks northeastward from Lower Michigan across the Lower Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley. The low-level mass response to the deepening cyclone will lead to strengthening low-mid level winds, as a 700 mb jet of 50-70 knots develops over the Ohio Valley tomorrow morning, and then spreads northeastward over our forecast area by peak heating tomorrow afternoon. Southerly flow at low- levels will draw deeper moisture (low 60s dewpoints) northward into the area, which when combined with daytime heating (surface temps climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s) will lead to surface- based destabilization (MLCAPE values around 500-1500 J/kg). Assuming that storms occur, the environment in place with MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear values of around 50 knots (with nearly all of it below 700 mb) will be very favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms. However, many questions remain with respect to the coverage of storms, the storm mode, hodograph shape, and resultant storm impacts locally. 00z/12z CAM guidance is in good agreement that there will be plenty of ongoing convection tonight upstream in the Ohio Valley. Some of this activity will likely impact the West Virginia Panhandle, western Maryland, and potentially north-central Maryland tomorrow morning. Much of this activity will likely be elevated in nature, but some heavier downpours, lightning, and maybe even a little small hail may be possible during the morning hours as this activity moves through. Further south and east, conditions will likely remain dry through the morning, with daytime heating occurring through a broken cloud deck. Forecast uncertainty increases moving into the afternoon hours, with various sources of model guidance advertising a wide array of potential solutions. On one extreme lies the 3km NAM, which fails to produce any additional storms after the elevated activity moves through during the morning. Inspection of 3km NAM forecast soundings shows strong capping, which in turn inhibits the development of new storms. A tendency toward under-mixing and overcapping is a well known forecast bias of the 3km NAM. In this type of scenario, there would be no severe weather threat across the bulk of the forecast area tomorrow. A potential exception would be with any remnant squall line moving into the Alleghenies from the Ohio Valley tomorrow evening. On the other end of the spectrum lies the HRRR, which produces numerous additional storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Most of these storms actually form upstream in the Ohio Valley during the morning and persist into the forecast area during the mid afternoon to evening hours. Inspection of HRRR forecast soundings shows much deeper mixing, which is unsurprising, since overmixing/undercapping is a known bias of the HRRR. In terms of storm mode, the HRRR solution shows both supercells and smaller bowing segments. Other sources of guidance lie somewhere between these scenarios. The Hi-Res Canadian falls into the 3km NAM camp, keeping things capped and producing no additional storms locally. The FV3 is the next lowest in terms of storm coverage, only producing a few isolated cells, primarily across northern Maryland and northern portions of the West Virginia Panhandle. The RRFS also keeps activity predominantly confined to northern WV/MD, but more in the form of an organized squall line. The WRF-ARW develops a much larger QLCS/squall line with embedded bowing segments out of pre-exisiting convection that emanates out of southern WV. In that scenario, the QLCS could would impact most of the forecast area. The WRF-NSSL is much different that any of the above solutions, tracking a strong, elevated QLCS across northern MD during the morning hours, which lays out an east-west oriented outflow boundary. Then in the afternoon, it has a string of intense, isolated supercells developing along the differential heating boundary produced by the outflow, which then track eastward across northern Maryland. Beyond the differences in convective evolution/mode, there are also significant hodograph shape differences between the models. More overmixed models like the HRRR show close to straight hodographs, while undermixed models like the 3km NAM show much more hodograph curvature. The WRF-NSSL shows the greatest hodograph curvature of all, as a result of the remnant outflow boundary. The uncertainty with respect to convective mode and hodograph curvature cascades into uncertainty with regard to the potential hazards as well. The environment in place will make damaging winds possible with any storms that form. However, that threat would likely be maximized in scenarios that produce a more linear convective mode, with a QLCS or smaller bowing segments. A more cellular mode would likely lead to supercells, a greater threat for both severe hail and tornadoes, and lesser areal coverage of damaging winds compared to a linear mode. At the moment SPC has most of the area outlooked in a Slight Risk, driven by damaging wind potential. They also have a 5 percent hail contour, and 2/5 percent tornado contours, along with a CIG 1 hatching (suggesting that a reasonable max tornado intensity of EF-2, if a tornado were to occur). The CIG1 hatching hints at the higher end potential of the severe threat tomorrow. There is no CIG 1 hatching for wind tomorrow, but hurricane force gusts (74+ mph) are needed to justify wind hatching. It wouldn`t be a shock to see some 60-70 mph gusts in any bowing segments, if storms do occur. With the high level of forecast uncertainty, following observations will be critical over the next 24 hours. The level of mid-level capping, along with how upstream convection over the Ohio Valley evolves will be critical factors in determining what ultimately occurs here tomorrow. A brief summary of the main takeaways follows below: -Forecast uncertainty is very high tomorrow. Plausible scenarios range from no severe thunderstorms at all, to a very impactful severe thunderstorm event. -Confidence in elevated storms impacting the WV Panhandle/western MD tomorrow morning is high, but those storms likely won`t pose much of a severe threat. -Any storms that do form tomorrow afternoon will likely turn severe, posing at least a threat for damaging winds, and potentially large hail and tornadoes too (if the storm mode is supercellular). -The timing of the most intense storms is expected to be in the afternoon and evening hours, with the strongest storms (if they occur at all) expected to move through the I-95 corridor between roughly 3 and 8 PM. -A squall line will likely approach from the Ohio Valley and track toward the Alleghenies tomorrow evening, but will likely be weakening as it does so. Any severe threat with this line will likely stay confined to along/west of the Allegheny Front.

True. Interesting to note LWX in the morning AFD noted that they thought the CIG 1 would come further east due to the potential

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/ For those that missed it re the CIG

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Another day of scattered severe weather is anticipated for Wednesday. Two upper waves - evident in early-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies and northern Mexico - will traverse eastward over the next 24 hours. Substantial amplification of the northern wave is expected as it migrates into the upper OH Valley through the day. Strong broad-scale ascent ahead of the wave and within the left-exit region of a strengthening upper jet will promote steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it progresses from the Great Lakes into southeastern Quebec by Thursday morning. A broad fetch of southerly flow will support poleward moisture return as far north as the upper OH Valley by Wednesday afternoon. A trailing cold front attendant to the surface low will push east/southeast through the day, reaching the Mid-Atlantic and northern Gulf Coast by 12 UTC Thursday. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances will be focused along and ahead of this front through the day as it pushes east/southeast. ...Upper OH Valley... A corridor of higher severe wind, and perhaps tornado, potential may emerge across OH into parts of WV and western PA Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. Latest guidance shows reasonably good agreement in a swath of pre-frontal 40-50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer overspreading the upper OH Valley. Within this strong flow field, guidance also depicts a pronounced plume of higher theta-e values advecting northward along the western Appalachians. The intersection of the strong flow with subtle low-level warm advection will likely support a corridor of regionally higher buoyancy and enhanced effective SRH (on the order of 200-300 m2/s2) favorable for well-organized convection, including supercells. The primary uncertainty pertains to antecedent storm coverage across the region during the morning hours. Residual convection from late Tuesday night will likely linger over the mid/upper OH Valley, though guidance shows some uncertainty regarding coverage and intensity of this activity. Sparse storm coverage should help maximize diurnal destabilization and will support a more robust severe threat. Greater coverage of morning convection will act to modulate the thermodynamic environment by muting the influence of daytime heating and the northward extent of richer moisture. Regardless, updraft/UH signals in CAM ensembles and recent calibrated guidance depict a corridor of stronger convection across far eastern IN into OH, WV, and southwest PA. Increased wind probabilities (30%) have been introduced across this corridor where one or more rounds of storms within a strong flow field will pose a threat for damaging/severe winds. Higher risk categories may be needed if morning storm coverage is minimal and a more potent thermodynamic environment emerges.

Oh @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe