wncsnow
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Everything posted by wncsnow
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We have gotten decent snows with a -PNA. I will see what research I can find
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And it's ok to disagree
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I think they have been about like they always have. Never perfect but a decent guide to use if you take a blended approach. The late December cold snap has been showing up for a few days now in varying degrees. Look at this run from Thursday night.
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They haven't been that bad though. They called this warm spell way back in early December.
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So disregard models and ensembles unless it's a few days out?
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I think the next really interesting time period is from Jan 7-12. If we can keep that -NAO we might have a real shot then.
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Not for this week
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I think this is what's most frustrating for me. We finally have a great Atlantic setup but the Pacific is screwing us from getting a snowy pattern.
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21 here much colder than I expected
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4 of the top 5 record highs on Christmas in Asheville are in the past 10 years.....
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The big question for me is, what happens later in January and Feb/early March? Do we continue the trend of early springs or can the -NAO make an appearance later in the season when the wavelengths are shorter and the big dog potential goes up?
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If anyone was wondering, last nights fantasy storm is gone on today's Euro. Just another brief cooldown before warming up to start the New Year!
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We could use some rain, just don't want to 30s and 40s and cloudy CAD days
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And after that period it looks to go right back to warm
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There's very little to be optimistic about right now. Add in the fact that it doesnt snow during February or March during Ninas and we got an uphill battle
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Lol
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24 this morning
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just gonna enjoy the old school weather local forecast Christmas music and reminisce back to when it did snow
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The last major winter storm in February or later during a weak to moderate La Nina was March 1 2008 with exactly what Eric Webb said- A bowling ball cut off upper low. There have been 7 weak to moderate La Ninas since then, none of them had major winter storms after January,
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We really might have had our coldest temps and closest call for snow this winter already. That -PNA looks here to stay
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We need that every year but this year we might need a miracle with that +EPO
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This is why having a raging Pacific and strongly negative PNA kills winter- It floods the conus with Pacific Air and leads to the SE Death Ridge.
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We haven't had a big, slow moving cut off upper low in a long time so maybe were due? Otherwise, La Nina is flexing too much for my liking.
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I think the best question right now is, what can get the Pacific to calm down? As shown in the chart above, the PNA will be more strongly negative than the NAO and should win that contest as the main pattern driver. There looks to be a transient cooldown in late December but as of now, it wont last more than a few days.
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Thats awful. RIP
