wncsnow

Only bad thing is the temps on the NAM are borderline even for foothill areas

Precip still struggling to make it into VA, better though for WNC

New SREF will be out soon

Everyone too worried about it being too amped... I didnt think that was the case.. but isnt over yet

The new SREF will be a good indicator of tonights NAM run, will be interesting if it backs off more or increases again

Snowmap (more like dry/wet ground map)

Its fair to say the UKMET could be as out to lunch as the GFS with its extreme solution

Its very similar to 12Z run thru hr 36

Out to 27 GFS may be more suppressed than 12Z run..

RGEM looks similar through 33, maybe a little slower and a tick further south with SLP placement 

Curious to see if the RGEM comes in more suppressed looking. Could be a sign on things to come

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

The CMC and UK are plenty amped. Almost to the point I'm worried about mixing here 

I wouldnt worry about mixing at all in McDowell, lack of QPF is the big deal..This is in the EURO wheelhouse and its hard for me to think it is going to be a super amped bomb of a system when the Euro excels in handling southern stream lows

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Yep about a 50 mile wobble east. Always going to see these small shifts back and forth up until about 24 hours out. 

Thats true but you usually want to see the NAM as the amped up and high QPF model.. not good for Western areas IMO...

Snow map is quite a bit less for NC areas 

Quite a bit further East as expected..

It actually looks very similar to the Euro with regards to qpf

Its showing heavier precip but going to be further East

I expect the NAM to back off some from the weenie 12Z run, especially looking at the SREF (usually an indicator of the NAM)

Yea, EURO still doesnt look like UKMET or CMC... Its a little bit of a compromise between those 2 and GFS 

Snowmap shows Coldrain jackpot over 6 inches lol

GEFS is actually a little less than 6Z runs.. 

1 minute ago, J.C. said:

I can't believe the GFS is still such an outlier at this time frame.

I agree, shockingly bad even for the GFS if the Euro comes in like the UKMET/CMC/NAM

I like amped but not too amped! Danville likes to mix.. Might be better off at Buddys place

GFS snow map (using Kuchera ratios)

Yea, the GFS looks pretty bad, really thought it would start trending to a stronger system

GFS is likely going to end up suppressed like earlier runs, but maybe further west some