OSUmetstud

Juan went up on the west side of Halifax, that makes a huge difference. Still possible, but guidance seems locked in for a track just southeast of Halifax.

Hazey should take a nice trip to the Richmond County shoreline. Some of these pressure on the HWRF and the ECMWF at landfall are pretty ridiculous, I'm pretty sure they'd set the NS record.

Solid hit on the euro for my area.

Thats not Elinor. Its Zach...he was a bit of teen genius from the old board that has seemed to go the way of weirdness ala Chuck. Elinor is Turtle not Turtle Hurricane.

The lack of blocking over Atlantic Canada with this one makes it tough to get west definitely fun and important to monitor run to run changes though

Should be decent here. Id like another nudge east to get into the lightly better winds. The winds wont be higher than any of our major winter storms but with leafed trees and unfrozen ground there will be more opportunity for damage and power outages.

The COTI ensemble track blend followed by the UKMET have been the best verifying pieces of guidance for Dorian at 120 hours so far.

Id probably go 45/35/20 for landfall probs in NL, NS, and out to sea. Theres still a lot of lowering of heights in Atlantic Canada ahead of Dorian that make me hesitant to believe in the further west tracks like the gfs and the ukmet even with the partial phase from the clipper out of eastern Canada.

Where is the post?

Looks pretty solid for an Atlantic Canada landfall.

The Icon is so good at tropical forecasting that the NHC doesn't even run statistics on it.

This is the third leading story on fox. Much more responsible. Canadian ex-PM 'rooting' for Hurricane Dorian to slam Mar-a-Lago

Hwrf has better scores than the hmon for track...and hwrf is the best model of all for intensity.

Its the old gfdl.

indeed

I'm grateful for those who know how to embed tweets, otherwise I wouldn't be able to see any of Ryan Maue's. He blocked me a few months back.

BUF's is cold Sunday I believe (Jan 17th 1982). -37F. Also the week before set the record for the lowest wind chill for an NFL game...the AFC Championship game in Cincy "Freezer Bowl" on jan 10th 1982.

faint green glow to the northeast. Didn't even know anything was going on tonight so no confirmation bias lol. Kp is 5 and the map shows it pretty close so I don't think I'm seeing things.

christ..my heart sank for a minute. overall, pretty funny though after you get over the initial shock

I didn't feel like a fish out of water when I left SUNY Oswego to work in Bermuda...synoptic 1 and 2, the forecast game, and the student website all helped hone forecasting skills. However, I still learned a hell of a lot about forecasting while working in Bermuda for 3 1/2 years. Isohume is right that forecasting is a bit of an art. This is why knowledgeable amateurs can occasionally outforecast meteorologists.

the euros might disagree

If at some point in the future vets are so numerous that they completely block out all non-vets from being considered, then I'd consider a change in policy. Right now, that just isn't even close to the case. It seems like vets do block some of the panels...but probably not most...and definitely not all. Experience still does matter in vets vs. non-vets. If a vet is just a vet with a BS met degree..he would not make GS-09 grade. Therefore, non-vets at GS-09 would still be considered on equal footing to a vet or vets that were referred at GS-07 and GS-05. The MIC is not required to choose a vet in a case like that. For example, I was referred to Spartanburg, SC and Charleston, WV at GS-07 and GS-09, but not at GS-05. Vets were qualified at GS-05 so they were referred, while non-vets at that grade were not. Gold candidates at GS-07 and GS-09 were referred to the MIC.

I don't have a problem with the way vets preference is done. Each and every one of has a choice of joining the military and serving in a forward area and putting your life on the line. This is a policy wherein the government gives back to the vets for their sacrifice. If you don't like it...you can sign up tomorrow and get your vet preference in a few years. Now, I think there certainly is some potential for better candidates being overlooked in deference to a veteran...but I think it's a small price to pay. Having a better resume doesn't even really make you a better forecaster, anyway.

not a big deal in the sense I'm not going to b**ch about those who served in war getting preference. several hundred is a little bit of a stretch..the most i've heard is 430...and those tend to be highly sought after east coast locations. Buffalo had 116 last winter. I actually haven't been blocked from the last several applications I've sent in. The downsizing of the Iraq and Afghanistan operations could be concerning for the non-vets trying to get in over the next couple years, though.

just to let you know...qualified vets don't just get the 5 pts. anymore. If there is a few that are qualified at a specific grade...they actually block the non-vets from being considered at that grade. It's not a big deal...but I've been qualified at the gold category for a number of applications but still did not get referred to the local office because a couple vets or more qualified at all three internship grades and blocked the rest of the golds.