OSUmetstud

That was the worst flu season in modern history... The Spanish flu had a lower Ro than Sars Cov 2 and we only know the flu cases from then that were clinically significant. We didn't do antibody testing in 1918. So there was likely asymptomatic or sub clinic cases then too. So what you're seeing from 1918 is really the cases and the case fatality rate. Where are you getting the 50 to 80 percent asymptomatic infections according to the cdc? I can't find any info on the reddit thing you posted about 20 percent positive for antibodies in stockholm.

You didn't read that properly. The wage gains specifically between March and April are fake good news. The wage gains previously were decent...

Wage gains before Covid were decent. But the huge wage gains over the past month are fake because more lower income jobs were loss than higher income jobs. I'm not sure why that's fake news. It seems logical to me.

How was this before Covid? It's the April survey.

I don't dismiss a seasonal component to the virus, but I think we have to be careful about overstating it.

I mean its the equivalent to early November there now. We're seeing bigger outbreaks in warm areas like Ecuador and Brazil. They had an outbreak early on and they did a really great job of containing it. I just don't see how "sun kills it" really works here. They also probably have much different travel dynamics than western Europe and the USA.

They're heading into winter...

They're are plenty of shitty tests. Thats real. There specifically been lots of bad antibody tests coming out over the past month. Covid project had reviews of them. Only 1 or 2 of like over a dozen were solid. Private companies and the feds need to get together with a real plan for going forward.

Kinda damned if you do damned if you dont. Need fast but what good are shitty tests? I dont know if a anybody saw but this was the latest NYS antibody study results from today. The test is reported to have 93 to 100 percent specificity.

the testing way more limited in early to mid march on the ramp up compared to what is now. So you'd be more likely to miss something then than now. It also would explain the lack of symmetry in the fatality graphs in many places. Better counts on backside then on the front.

The excessive death stats widely reported are pretty hard to ignore imo. Theres also a few preprints out there discussing it. Estimates of 52k in Italy, for example.

This is probably true everywhere. Limited testing early on in the pandemic.

Meh. It just seems like someone doesn't like the way flu is counted. They explain their methods on the cdc website. They also call it a "flu burden" which is an idea that flu is contributing to the death not necessarily the only or primary cause.

Iran? Chuck it lol.

Public health experts and epidemiologists should be driving a response to a pandemic. It's pretty obvious. Who would you suggest?

Why is this perverse? Aren't those the type of people that should be driving the response?

No you're right. Theres issues with the pcr tests too. Sometimes the virus is deeper so the swab doesn't catch it

These antibody tests due seem like a bit of a fool's errand overall...lots of error and thers no confirmation of what level of antibodies confers immunity. I like numbers so they're fun to look at but hard to use them for any sort of policy.

Bergamo is the hardest hit city in the world. They lost 0.57 percent of their entire population. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v2

That study is positive for a potentially lower ifr.

You'd like to see more of a downtrend here.

I've heard ideal is a positive percentage of 3% or less. US is at 12% now , which is clearly better than before with about 200K tests a day, but still missing too much.

I do agree the contract tracing will be difficult. Maybe we can use some of the people unemployed for that? lol idk. I know they discussed the matter here. The provincial govt is suggesting digital contract tracing here (voluntary) through a cell phone app. They mentioned that it would really only be effective through 60 percent compliance. Contact tracing is way more feasible when the numbers are small. When they blow up its basically impossible, which is the case in NY obviously.

They used control measures in 1918. Do you not want to use the things we've learned throughout history to try to give us a fighting chance here?

Economically, fear is going to be tough, I think, regardless of govt regulation people will be less likely to do certain activities than before.