OSUmetstud

False negatives are way more common than false positives. False positives are extremely rare and are most likely the result of contamination. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/covid-19-false-positives-1.5555322

Not sure this is true stebo. Theres a strong push to get more frequent antigen testing off the ground with cheaper paper strip type testing. We are testing a great deal of the people far too late in the disease course for any benefit for contract tracing. On average, the people who are testing positve are no longer infectious so its only serving as a diagnosis, nothing more.

Asymptomatic vs. symptomatic is subjective. The tolerance for symptoms in people is heterogeneous. It seems though that you can still see changes in the lungs for a lot of these people who aren't felling symptoms.

It was like 1100. It was the results of the stage 1/2 oxford/azn vaccine. The moderna one last week was stage 1 results and that was 45 people. I'm more hopeful than ever will have a viable vaccine in early 2021.

Scientist have been talking about needing more funding for emerging disease surveillance for years. The next pandemic was always only a matter of time.

I'm almost sure that an accident or elective surgery admission does not count as a covid hospitalization.

Excess deaths are running about 31k over confirmed/probable covid deaths as of June 6th on the CDC data. The aggregate data clearly shows we undercounted covid deaths, especially early on. The deaths with covid narrative is complete nonsense and is meant to reduce the gravity of the pandemic. The confirmed/probable counts are quite close to excess counts later on as the testing expanded and we caught nearly all the severe cases.

I'm a little bothered by that indiana serology survey that you posted a week or two ago. The results of the study showed 1.1 % with antibodies and another 1.7 % with active infections as of 4/29. It appears they divided the dead at of the end of the study, 1099, by 2.8 percent of the indiana population. I think that's flawed methodology. It takes like two weeks on average to die from symptom onset...if they wanted to included active infections than they ought to have lagged the ifr calculation and included deaths that occurred at least week or two after 4/29.

Yeah me too, hard for me to get excited about hockey lately.

Hockey is inside too. Probably more risky than a football stadium.

Idk man. Get some home weights lol. Gyms seem like a ripe place for big virus spread. Its why their last in NYS, more risk.

Seems a bit fudged but Im sure you guys well take it lol.

yep, cell phone data.

The decision at the time was not based on scientific guidelines, but people's behaviors are still driving lower transmission rates. I hope that all these places, both open and closed have been using their time wisely to gear up and increase testing and tracing capacity for the next wave of infections.

It attracts a million people/year. It's not happening.

I dont think it would be safe to assume that..there isn't elevated mortality in the USA until early March.

That's different. Im just saying the feds would normally help for something like this...

Yes. Different thing. I found a stockholm preliminary study from late April having 11 percent antibodies in a small test population but that study was pulled due to lack of evidence. We've seen some of the early antibody studies pulled (S cal, Germany, and stockholm) because some of these early tests had poor specificity...with a high chance of false positives.

I think there is decent evidence to support that seasonal influenza has a higher fatality rate for infants than covid...but it's tilts towards covid pretty quickly with age.

Why would the states have to pay for the entire response? Its a federal/international disaster.

That was the worst flu season in modern history... The Spanish flu had a lower Ro than Sars Cov 2 and we only know the flu cases from then that were clinically significant. We didn't do antibody testing in 1918. So there was likely asymptomatic or sub clinic cases then too. So what you're seeing from 1918 is really the cases and the case fatality rate. Where are you getting the 50 to 80 percent asymptomatic infections according to the cdc? I can't find any info on the reddit thing you posted about 20 percent positive for antibodies in stockholm.

You didn't read that properly. The wage gains specifically between March and April are fake good news. The wage gains previously were decent...

Wage gains before Covid were decent. But the huge wage gains over the past month are fake because more lower income jobs were loss than higher income jobs. I'm not sure why that's fake news. It seems logical to me.

How was this before Covid? It's the April survey.

I don't dismiss a seasonal component to the virus, but I think we have to be careful about overstating it.