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OSUmetstud

Meteorologist
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About OSUmetstud

  • Birthday 04/21/1985

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    CYYT
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    Male
  • Location:
    St. John's, NL, Canada

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  1. OSUmetstud
    I deleted that because the RONI/ONI standard deviations for OISST and ERSSTv6 are very similar which means it must have been scaled despite the differences.
  2. OSUmetstud
    Definitely but that graph also has the ecmwf model climate and the prediction is weaker than that, too. A weaker pv and a tendency towards blocking in a very strong nino year doesnt seem too surprising to me.
  3. OSUmetstud
    ECMWF October Nino plumes adjusted upward in Nino 1&2 and Nino 3, stayed consistent from the previous month in Nino 3.4, and lowered the forecast for Nino 4.
  4. OSUmetstud
    NOAA CORe showing (probably?) slightly below-normal temps in May, near-normal temps in June, and near-normal temps in July in the Arctic 80+N area. Contoured at 1F. Very difficult to get real surface temperature departures at all in this area at peak summer due to the cooling and stabilizing effect of the slushy ocean.
  5. OSUmetstud
    @bluewavewhere are you getting that second anomaly/significance chart from?
  6. OSUmetstud
    NOAA Offical RONI ERSSTv6 released for September and JAS. 2.08C and 1.69C
  7. OSUmetstud
    Nino 1.2 really went for broke this past month. ECMWF September forecast and spread overlaid with verification.
  8. OSUmetstud
    We can debate oni v roni all we want but you still have at least four different SST analyzes and climatologies and roni adjustments and scaling at the bom, cpc, ukmet, and ecmwf. So good luck!
  9. OSUmetstud
    We really giving the flu and other cold viruses credit for cold deaths lol.
  10. OSUmetstud
    OSTIA SST (UKMET/ECMWF) anomaly over the past 60 days
  11. OSUmetstud
    Forecast from the Canadian seasonal of various climate data indices. Big positive sst anomalies still look too west to me. https://dd.weather.gc.ca/today/ensemble/cansips/csv/indices/forecast/monthly/ 2026093000_indices_month_202610_202709.csv.PDF
  12. OSUmetstud
    It's bad faith to make strong conclusions from the original because a) it's not comparing the reanalysis to the reanalysis climatology and b) there's an obvious change after the ocean and sea-ice upgrade. My analysis should speak for itself and I am confident in my conclusions. I don't need some other posters in another forum to back me up.
  13. OSUmetstud
    If you want it, I was able to do some area averages in QGIS myself for 80 °N relative to ERA5 1991–2020 Normals May -0.2 °C June -0.4 °C July -0.2 °C August 0.9 °C Another piece of evidence—Arctic Sea ice extent is near the 2011–2020 average. It was not a crazy melt summer but it was not particularly cold, either.
  14. OSUmetstud
    The ecmwf was upgraded on May 12, 2026. What do you notice? IFS users will also see the introduction of the new NEMO4-SI³ ocean and sea-ice model, bringing substantial improvements in forecasts and analysis over the marine areas, as well as over 40 new ocean and sea ice-related variables. Key improvements include a more accurate representation of how sea ice affects the power of waves and the interactions between waves and ocean currents, often at play in rougher seas. Other improvements for IFS include improved tropical upper-air temperature and wind forecasts, and improvements to temperature and humidity forecasts around the tropopause. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2026/ifs-cycle-50r1-aifsv2-live What's likely happening here is actually the new ecmwf 2 m temperatures over the Arctic are more accurate as the near surface inversion is more properly coupled to the ice and the cold ocean. The old 2 m ERA40 climatology is what's too warm.
  15. OSUmetstud
    This plot is not consistent with 2 m temperature being 2 C below the much older 1958 to 2002 climatology all summer. This area is all ocean/ice.
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