BlizzardNole

5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Anybody have a good link to a base nexrad radar or something? Sorry, but this damn interactive radar the NWS updated to annoys the hell out of me.

Here's Weather Underground.  I'm with you -- I don't like the new NWS radar

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/va/sterling/lwx

Light snow grains and 27.  We sure kept surface temps over night!  I should have waited to clear the driveway and walkway because now you could skate on them.  

27 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So I have to ask when the weather service calls for heavy snow is it the size of the flakes? or is it the rate in which it falls? or can it be both?

Intensity is typically tied to visibility, with heavy snow being visibility of less than a quarter mile.  I think of heavy snow as about 1 inch per hour.  Not necessarily flake size as sometimes you can have large wet flakes but spaced way apart.

Get this -- NYC could see rates of 2-4 inches at times.  Man to see that.

This has been a painful lesson for most of us.  Stick to the formula next time we have a Miller B -- take your forecast snow amount and divide the lower number in half.  For example, your forecast says 4-8" total, expect 2".  Works 95% of the time.  Works for clippers too.

Oh, light frz drizzle and 29.  Less total winter snow than Shreveport, VA Beach, Rocky Mount NC, Richmond and Madrid

30 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

 

What are you at? We are right by each other. I was at a solid 2" when I measured a couple hours ago.

We are in Milestone, just north of the intersection of Rts. 355 and 27.  I might be moving soon......to the Panic Room

Bwaahahahaha even lower St Mary's County did better than pathetic upper MontCo.  What a snow hole.  We are the new Richmond

24 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Man what a bust, we got maybe 2" tops and now it's rain.  Can't believe I spent so much time tracking this system.  Sigh, them's the breaks I guess.  We definitely busted low relative to almost all the models, maybe the 3k NAM was close?  How about that canadian, lmao.  

If it makes you feel any better we only got 2" up here in Germantown well NW of the city and we're done.  My forecast was 6-8 and my low end was 4".  Huuuuuuuge bust.  My thinking is we had a chance on Dec. 16 and failed and we had this chance and failed miserably again.  We will not get another chance in a Nina winter.  We're done

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I think the Richmond area is going to beat the DC area if the costal misses.

Yup.  Multiple 4-5 inch amounts down there.  Places that have had more snow than DC:  Richmond, Virginia Beach (LOL), Louisiana, central North Carolina, Madrid Spain

Very light snow and just under 2" on the ground.  Looks to be over.  Starting to fill out paperwork for the Panic Room

I doubted this thing all week but finally bought in yesterday and believed we were getting 6 inches plus.  The joke's on me.  I forgot to use the Mid-Atlantic Miller Bust Formula -- take your predicted range, and divide the lower number by half.  For example predicted 6-10 you're getting 3.

Now I will not believe in any system no matter what the models show.  Bring on spring.

About 1.5" and barely snowing, sky brightening.

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Mini band #2 setting in. Should crack 2.5cms with this one. My new strategy when my yard is obviously not getting jacked is switching to metric. Coping mechanism. Working brilliantly right now. Should easily crack 5cms before noon.

Ha!  I should have set my bar at 6 cm instead of 6 inches.  It's starting to look like that split where south of us does better with the thump and the coastal misses us north.  I'd be surprised to see more than 3" total now.

10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Southern Maryland reporting in. 

 

Wow, nice looking yard!  My sister lives in Huntingtown, right near the high school.  Parents are a couple miles up the road, brother in Ches Beach.  I experienced  lot of winter pain growing up in Calvert!  It's fun when you win there though (my God the Blizzard of 79).

1 inch now near Germantown, very light now and sky is brightening.  Uh oh?

Very light snow with a dusting in Germantown, 29 degrees.  My bar for this storm is 6" and that might be tough with the way things look right now.  My point-click forecast is just 2-4 for today and I don't think we get any here tomorrow.

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That hole is an area that got unlucky twice. Ended up between bands during the WAA then again during the deform. Subsidence can be cruel. Btw euro started to pick up on that duel banding structure on the NW side that happens EVERY time. There will always, in EVERY storm, be unlucky little pockets like that. I actually ended up in one in 2016. I got 28”, and no I’m not complaining one bit I’m not crazy, but all around me got 30-36”. I ended up in a couple dead zones between banding and oh well. But no model can get either the meso banding or the associated screw zones between them right from 24 hours let alone 72 so I wouldn’t sweat it.  That’s something for the now cast. 

Hurts when it happens!  In 1/25/2000, I got stuck between heavy bands to the east and west, and even had sun peaking out.  I measured about 7" while areas all around got double or more.

I don't think most would be upset at 5-10 for much of the forum; it's the trends that are scaring people that we might end up with a minor event or even a whiff.  My bar is 6" without rain washing it away.  I'd be very happy with one storm like that as I was expecting a shutout winter.

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man if we end up smoking cirrus from this...smh I mean how does the confluence get stronger and stronger and stronger? When will it stop? When the WAA snowfall is all the way down in dang NC, and we're stuck with flurries? Smh I hope we have better corrections tomorrow.

What a gut punch it would be after seeing it snow in Louisiana, NC, VA Beach, if this also went south of us.  The Panic Room would have a line to get in.

I get a kick out of these Calif. mountain storms.  This is from near Ebbets Pass:

Light sleet started in Germantown; 35 degrees.

Guess we have to travel now if we want to see good snow.  Let's see... there's Louisiana, Texas, Madrid and London

The only frozen my yard will see in Germantown is this from my block freezer defrost 

57 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Not that I think Deep Creek will see 1.5” of ice accretion but even half of that is a huge deal.  Geez.

Sure is.  I was in southern MD in 1994 for 2-plus inches of ice accretion -- you do NOT want to see it.

Can't believe it's 17-year cicada time again.  I remember telling my wife in 2004 that the next time our little kids would be 21 and 19.  It sounded unthinkable at the time but here we are!

Now here's a thread I can get into!  Winter is so terrible here -- months of bare trees and chilly dreariness with no snow, but we have gardening to look forward to.  I'm a flower gardener with emphasis on butterflies and hummingbirds.  My hummingbirds arrive the third week of April - just three more months!

In the next few weeks I will get my tropical milkweed seeds going for my monarch crop.

A few graupel grains on the deck table this morning.  Guess that's worth a report the way this winter is going.

We are flying out of BWI this Saturday to visit family in Florida so this storm is happening

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2010 is probably the goal here.  We had pac help in Dec but the second round that year was all high latitude driven overcoming a crap pac. But it was PERFECT blocking so that’s living on the edge. But also...it was 11 years ago. We are warming. And a lot of those storms were borderline. Only the late Jan one was cold. All the others after if you add a few degrees we are in trouble.  And the temps in Canada that Jan were warm but not as warm as now!  Probably helped that year the pac wasn’t puke early and allowed a cold pool to build. Then the Atlantic was able to prevent it from being completely obliterated later. 

Either way that temp profile in NW Canada is way better then now! 

2010 was once in a lifetime.  Give me a 2018 type winter (around 30" total with one big storm) and I'm ecstatic.