powderfreak

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro fucks us all weekend. Just blow my head off now. 

8pm Sat to 8am Sun looks good for outdoor activities there .

Its like surgically positioned during the overnight hours.

48 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Man + tanning + clouds

+ crack.

It’s raining again, too. Awesome.

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

hoping to go into NW Berkshire county tomorrow...maybe up around Albany if it looks good for some lightning at least

Hope it’s electric.

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Interior FL is a hellhole. Gulf Coast Tampa-south is amazing. You need some air movement with the continuous 75-80+ dews and mins. 

I can’t imagine living there and not being near the water.  Strong hell no to interior Florida.

73/51

Back in the sweet spot for temps/dews.

It was a smoky blue tint hazy day.  There were some clouds around the mountain, but the view was smoggy.  The Mansfield ridgeline is 2 miles long from above where I'm standing to the high spot across there, and even that view was hazy.  The 5-6 mile visibility seemed about right.

Eventually the clouds filled in. 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’ll happen tonight here . And then not burn off until 11 tomorrow only to reveal smoke 

The smoke today was real bad here.

MVL ASOS didn’t get a vis above 5-6sm all day long.  Sure, it’s not as bad as that episode of 1-3sm we all had last summer (or two summers ago?)… but it was an extremely noticeable haze all day obscuring the mountains.

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sun just came out. Quickly looking for sunscreen to lay out for 11 minutes 

We got some clearing but all that did was cause low level ground fog from the earlier rain.  So we lost the clouds overhead and replaced them with ones in the bottom 30 feet.

We stayed dry all day until now.  Torrential rain and thunder just moved in.

One of the best Saturday’s in a while included low vis haze/smoke/air quality alerts when not raining, followed by torrential rain at 5pm.  The bar is very low.

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just went back out to clean up after cooking and they swarmed right away . I’ve never seen anything like this. Must be the wet Mayorch ?

I’m destroyed with bites.  My ankles itch just writing this, ha.  They’ve been bad up here too.

No thunder up here… just a 0.49” stratiform rain over 3 hours.

The mosquitoes will enjoy it.

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nowhere to hide 

 

Impressive radar.  Just heavy heavies everywhere.

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I actually only looked at the EPS. And yeah, it's not a hot look, nor cool. It will lean a little AN I think...but we aren't getting big heat with a H5 ridge 1500 miles to the west. 

Yeah I’d toss those GEFS temps… take +2 on most of that.  So it’s normal to slightly AN… but it’s like Wiz said.. this is normal June.  We like to rush seasons in.

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh there’s a few of them that are thinking exactly that. If they looked , they see an overall AN pattern with no huge heat 

Have you looked?  Because I honestly don't know if I believe you.

I just did (because it's fairly easy to do so) and I'm seeing most ensembles are showing a normal temperature regime.  GEFS are probably too cool, but I'm imagining that @CoastalWx also looked and arrived at his conclusion after seeing the H5 pattern and resulting set-ups.

And I'm not calling for a cold pattern, before this gets spun as "some are calling for 40s and 50s".  This is model data on a science forum.  Read it how you want to.

EPS Days 8 - 15

GEFS Days 8 - 15... this is colder.

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The thing is though it’s misleading because it’s not cool , chilly pattern. It’s still AN . The ACATT crew is thinking lots of 60’s/70’s with 30’s/ 40’s at night . Nothing wrong with low-upper 80’s in Junorch 

Not once did Scoots say anything about a cool, chilly pattern.

Who the hell is thinking "Looks like big heat is gone for a while" means 30s at night?

The mental gymnastics, projections, hyperbole and assumptions in here could keep a psychiatrist going for years.

If we as a science forum have gotten to the point where we can't call it like the models show, we've jumped the shark.

1 hour ago, Pennfisherman said:

So it seems.... To a novice like myself, it can be maddening reading contradicting posts. I look at models, but my lack of knowledge can only tell me so much. I than come to these forms to pull more from the models and to learn. Maybe, that's my mistake. 

Good luck here.  We used to live more in model reality but that’s moved on to filling agendas with strong hyperbole.

The ones to trust are the ones who can actually say when models show the weather they don’t want.  Like Coastalwx loves heat and humidity in the summer… if he says models have backed off a bit on heat, they did.

10 minutes ago, Pennfisherman said:

I didn't think it was possible... but reading these forms, it might be harder to decipher whether its hot/cold in the summer than cold/snowy or dry in the winter . Seems like people make the models support there belief regardless of what it shows.  

The trick is to not even look at model guidance, maybe some twitter posts, and “guide” the weather to the outcome you want.

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

My conundrum is a dog that has been sprayed twice in her life, but I know her instincts are to go after any small (or big) animal that wanders through.

We have a skunk that comes by most days, and is very careful to stay on the perimeter where it knows the dog can’t get it (due to being on a lead attached to the porch).

The problem is going to be, one day, the dog won’t be tethered or will slip out when the skunk is doing his thing eating grubs…. the dog is getting sprayed again.

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 I hit 90.3 here at 1k. That doesn't happen that often especially with fully leafed trees and not dry ground. This was a legit air mass

That’s impressive to be honest.  Might be the most impressive reading yet in the trees there.

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Install well underway.

I remember when mine when in… when the crews left and those things were quietly cranking out cold, dry air.  It’s a life changer.

Congrats.

This is a warm season AFD.  Hazy, quiet, warm conditions after some record/near record temps.  Summer vibe tonight.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 703 PM EDT Wednesday...Mostly clear skies with some
residual wildfire smoke will likely yield a colorful sunset
tonight across the North Country. We likely tied or broke a few
temperature records today looking at observations but we will
wait until 8 PM to begin sending out any record statement as we
want to ensure the data is correct. Otherwise, it`ll be a quiet
night across the region with increasing cloud cover toward
morning as a cold front approaches the region.

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

That seems about right. I would never claim my PWS is very precise. 

I bet the PWS is right.  Just different settings between a wide open airfield and areas with more vegetation where people live.  More evapotranspiration.  Dews are a bit higher, temps a bit lower.  I think your PWS is fine. 

Smokey sunset.

43 minutes ago, mreaves said:

85.2° for the high here. 

Yeah I use MVL, took home the local heat award at 89F for max.  That site can do it on these dry heaters.

Local neighbor’s PWS was 87F though.

BTV with 88F

MPV with 87F.

Already down to 72F MVL, 70F PWS.  Those low dew afternoons drop fast once the sun starts lowering.

48 minutes ago, kdxken said:

"Baxter State Park director Kevin Adam said the weather at Mount Katahdin on Sunday was cloudy with rain, sleet, and winds reaching 30 to 40 miles per hour. Similar conditions were reported on Monday, he said.

Sunday was cold, remember I was showing Mansfield was low-30s with strong wind and it’s a good 1000ft lower than Katahdin.  That night was cold too.