powderfreak

Warm front through. Was bouncing 29-32F this morning with low clouds but then shot up to 37F as we get a few breaks in the sky.

That's classic... Dogs are pretty smart with instincts. Hiding or running, they try to adapt to the situation, or just get scared/startled. Surprise birds scare me, though, ha. If we are hiking in the summer and get out on a ski trail (which acts as a giant tilted meadow), the grouse taking off straight upward when you get near them scare the crap out fo me.

Exactly. You’ll be wondering why it has to rain or change to freezing rain within days of each snowstorm. But the season total snowfall will be higher. Each winter has its own character. Or it’ll be all SWFE warm air thumps and it’ll be “for once it would be nice to just get an all powder snowstorm that doesn’t end with a crust.” Theres always a way to improve on a winter, except for the truly special ones that have big snows, no mixed, and no thaws.

Interesting. The pack is there and didn’t look too different than normal as J.Spin has posted from that site. Snowfall definitely down but the pack has been there.

Literally nothing has melted since like early January. Even BTV for their climo has gone quite a while with a good pack. Now the sun is coming out it’s starting to hit some spots with solar but the lengthy snow season has felt solid this winter. Other winters you’ll see more synoptic but also more melt and cutters mixed in. Been a great ski season because of that since the Grinch. Warm front nosing in, radar has some moisture building into the mountains, a Phin classic, dusting to an inch.

A friend took this shot from a drone today in Stowe, but man, what a day. Love these sunny March days.

Yeah that would’ve gone right over you. I had other friends who assumed it was snow shedding off their metal roof. I mean you hear it and your mind just assumes it’s anything but a meteor, ha. Right at like 5:40pm. Didn’t have a blender on or something?

Ha that thing cruises right over my house on that trajectory. Didn't see anything as we were looking southeast at the time when the noise hit. I had no idea something like that could be so loud. It was one of those "WTF is happening right now" moments. Never seen my dog like that either... she was like "instinct tells me this is bad, we gotta get out of here right now." “Heard and felt it from in the house midway between Stowe and Morrisville. Had no idea what it was!” one woman wrote. “Heard and felt it in Waterbury, Vermont. Rattled the house and windows!” another added.

What a bluebird morning. Earlier view of the Mountain Operations Center (MOC).

Anyone catch that fireball over VT or the noise last night!? I had no idea what it was, at first thought it was fireworks very close by, but then the sound tailed off oddly like a crackling. I figured then it had to be an F-35 out of BTV flying low. I was walking the dog on the Rec Path in Stowe (right about the time I took that photo of snowpack in my previous post in this thread). The dog freaked out, slipped her collar and started to run home. I got her to stop after the noise ended and she was just sitting in the Rec Path shaking. I even text my wife about 15 minutes later when we got home. Auto-correct changed a couple things (we call our dog "the bean" but it sometimes changes it to a beanie hat, ha) but that was crazy to find out it wasn't a fighter jet flying low, but a Meteor that entered the atmosphere over Mount Mansfield State Forest. It was loud!

Game Stop, at least that’s what the millionaires on Reddit show when they post screen shots of their investments lol.

Getting to the time of year where snowpack differences start to show up big. I’ve got 15” of concrete that you can walk on, but parts of the lower village look like they may only have a foot or so. Then you get higher up and closer to the Spine by a few miles and it’s a healthy 20+ of mushroom caps.

What a day. Starting to warm up and the wind has finally stopped after like 4-5 days of strong NW gales.

Nice standing waves rolling off Mansfield. This is looking east from 1,500ft.

Some flurries out there. A few fluffy, large snow flakes being incredibly lazy flurries floating off the peaks into the valley.

Yeah to be clear, I didn't think a Day 10-15 op output on the 18z GFS held much weight... but it's crazy to think about that solution. And great point about the models and how the conditions on the ground change. Do the models really grasp that surface feedback change?

That’s a temperature departure map?

J.Spin pep talk time while Phin is looking at those numbers and can’t fathom how to get there. The other thing though, it is only an 11-year POR so it’s still hard to completely see what the floor or ceiling of climo is there. Theres probably some 80-inch March (like 2001 at the Eden, VT COOP) or a 5-6” March on the low end. Just need to spread out the POR. But winter is a LONG way from over in the northern mountains.

Good god that looks horrible. Not happening but it’s even crazy to think about. Its like 5 full days of -20C or lower 850 temps up here. I can’t imagine a worst way to run the 3rd week of March than dry, frigid polar vortex over head. 5-day anomalies just for shits and giggles. And a 5-day average of -20 departures at the surface in the mtns. GFS your drunk.

Good point. Makes those positive anomalies for many in SNE even more impressive. Solid February.

Yeah, even the 6z models had it snowing steadily right now but nothing but a few wind whipped flurries moving through. 6z NAM sim rad product had a nice upslope pulse this evening from 4-9pm that didn’t happen, lol. Pretty substantial short term busts for GFS/NAM on this one. I won’t lie, I’m looking forward to the warm up.

I couldn’t get warm. That’s the worst type of cold... wind and evaporating snow. It’s a damp cold with the moisture but also not enough moisture to produce meaningful snow. Arctic sand snow type conditions. The wind was obscene here today with gusts to 50mph at times even at 1500ft when they’d roll out of the Notch and then funnel into the base area...especially late in the day. Could see plumes of blowing snow off the ski trails go like several hundred feet in the air at times and move across the forested hillsides. Just a lot of turbulence and chaos in the flow today.

The moose is constipated. At some point he'll release his gas. Probably when no one expects it. Eternal optimists here in Vermont. It's just so cold and blustery out there. Some of the woods are skiing nicely with the fresh wind drifts but I'm over this cold at this point in the season to be honest.

Yeah all the other models were pretty strong. Euro just never bought into it. We’ll see. Doesn’t take much to fart another 4-5” this evening. Its the ratios and the wind. We can make 5-6” from like 0.15-0.20”... but the strong winds have just hammered it on the ground.

The daytime today was always supposed to be sort of a lull with another increase in moisture and weak dynamics this evening. We’ll see like you said, ha. The differences between GFS and EURO at 18z and 00z last night were large. Euro schooled most models on this one.