powderfreak

The NWS is forecasting for road and travel impacts. Wet roads are wet roads, maybe some slick spots. It’s definitely fun to get a whitening squall this time of year, but in terms of impact most people should be able to navigate that. Once the streets turn white, then the pressure is on to get the word out.

Had some heavy graupel showers earlier in town, low ratio large dipping dots. Loud snow. Coated things again but not much depth despite the intensity of precip. Only 2-3” of higher QPF crusty dense snow on the ground right now, we missed the “zone” on this past storm… but man does it create a different vibe than brown ground when it is cold. No grass showing, chilly, with squalls moving through… it’s Thanksgiving Weekend but feels right. Despite the +4.8 month. Knocked back from +5 and it feels wintry, ha.

Damn, that’s a vibe right there for Thanksgiving. Here I am happy I can’t see my grass and the evergreens are white, that’s a plastering for the S/C VT to NH crew.

Very wet and heavy.

Okemo getting crushed.

Yeah 2-3” down here, probably an inch ahead here. Not much difference.

Mesoscale disco issued… Mesoscale Discussion 2243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Areas affected...parts of east central New York...southern Vermont...New Hampshire and southwestern Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 281547Z - 281845Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour appear probable in a corridor from the vicinity of the Capital District of New York through the southern Green into White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire, into areas north of Portland ME through 1-3 PM EST. DISCUSSION...Rapid (2-4 mb 2-hourly) surface pressure falls are ongoing across the northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity through southern New England, where substantive surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed beneath strengthening divergent flow between coupling upper jet streaks. Downstream of a mid-level short wave trough pivoting into the northern Mid Atlantic region, models indicate strengthening upward vertical motion becoming maximized within a saturating layer near/just above 600 mb, where temperatures around -15C are conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. Thermodynamic profiles across the lower Hudson/Champlain Valley vicinity into New England are still largely sub-freezing, aside from a slowly deepening near-surface layer slowly advecting across the lower Hudson Valley into southern New England. It appears that the near-surface environment will remain cold enough in a corridor (roughly) near/northeast of the Capital District of New York through the Portland ME to support heavy accumulating snow, which various model output indicates probably will include rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour. ..Kerr.. 11/28/2024

I’ve got so much stuff going on this time of year I’ve barely been able to dig into this one, ha. Think we are going to be very elevation dependent between town and mountain tomorrow afternoon. Hoping for 2 or 3” at home if it can pound. Thinking 4-8” at the mountain, but most likely 4-6” of 8-9:1… maybe chance of 8” up top.

PF has entered the chat.

Going to need a big tick NW up here, but unlikely given the stability of guidance. The GFL-RUT-LCI corridor likes to max out frontogenic forcing. Climo favored zone on hugging systems.

Looked like some big accident involving TT unit and multiple cars on 89 near Berlin maybe? Down in town my car was iced up but roads fine, up here at the ski resort everything is a skating rink.

This looks like climo for a weak coastal system and poor low level temps.

The nighttime temps this month have just crushed snowmaking opportunities. Snowmaking relies on those daily temperature averages, and especially the mins. Chop 10 degrees off the lower end of the daily range and it’s been a struggle to make snow consistently in the elevations that need it. A ton of tepid air masses. Looks like it should improve. I always loop 925mb temps to gage snowmaking chances. Need to see -5C or lower sustained at 925mb for true snowmaking opportunities at 1500ft.

The new climate… just days and days of normal highs and torched lows. Another +5 day. Yesterday’s high… 40F. Normal high… 40F. Yesterday’s low… 32F Normal low… 22F.

It’s been 9 days since we’ve seen a mean daily temp departure less than +4. November is at +5.3. That pretty much explains the air masses we’ve seen. Not surprising this event will be marginal under 1,000ft.

Luckily not too bad. Kitchen in the secondary restaurant up there, The Waffle. It’s all concrete around that space which contained it to like a 20’ x 20’ space and it snuffed itself out when crews reached it via snowcat. Thats what I gathered listening to the radio and Lamoille Dispatch.

From what I gathered on the radio was the fire was contained to the Waffle kitchen and had snuffed itself out by the time crews got up there via snowcat. Was lucky a Lift Mechanic was up there to spot it though. On the radio it sounded like heavy damage to the kitchen but that building is like a concrete bunker that contained it inside the walls of The Waffle. It’s all concrete around that space.

Damnit. Everything trends worse all the time, after it trends better. I had locked 10” in.

You get a run that jackpots an area... of course its going to get worse after that though. Like you aren't going to run 7 days of jackpot run after jackpot run.

That would give me some partial sunshine. Deal.

What happened to you? You sound like me now, questioning everything that could be fun weather, lol. You used to see 0.1” QPF and lock in 3-6” five days out.

Finally a widespread precipitation event.

Snow football brings back some childhood feelings. Like it fits the time of year perfectly.

It is dumping in high-def live TV there.