powderfreak

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m here to track coc and we’ve had 4 straight days of it pulsating in the region. Yeaaa buddy.

44F this morning and now up to 77F.  Been very easy to drop into the mid-40s the past 2-3 mornings.  Been a minute since that's happened.  Before long it'll be upper 30s for mins when the Chamber weather rolls through.

We love August evenings like today.  Vermont C.O.C.  52/48 now.

55 minutes ago, mreaves said:

At least there was no security line. Lol. 

Skinny Pancake hours are tough.  The lack of any open store is tough there during hours when you’d think something should be open.  Then again the last time I flew I was surprised even at major airports for the lack of open stores/restaurants.  Labor shortage in that service industry definitely impactful still… flying used to be an experience, even in the airport.  Now its like you sit and wait until we are ready to take you somewhere… like Greyhound bus experiences were in college.

24 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Flying to IAD from BTV for a conference. Scheduled to take off at 7:30 PM. Got to the airport around 6:15. As I’m getting out of the car I get a text that the flight is delayed until 9:00. Stuck at the airport for 2.5 hours. The one restaurant and store closed at 7:00. Ugh.

Gotta love BTV airport.

77/48 off a min of 45F.

What a top 10 day.  Not going to lie, glad it’s not raining today.

Wildflowers blooming, bees pollinating, puffy Cu floating by.

9 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Why's that guy so dirty prior to slicing it open 

I’m assuming this is what he does for a living and might have more than one animal around.  I think Fish and Game brought it to him.  It was also hit by a car so maybe there’s some mess on the other side?

Best guess is this wasn’t his first of the day.

46 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Summer is on its last legs…

I thought I saw Thanksgiving stuff out in a store the other day.  Might have been autumn but some Turkey decorations too.

Retailers don’t hold back haha.

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah he got lucky. Into SE MA too.

Yeah can see that axis on Cocorahs.  Looks like it hasn’t rained since though.

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Check it out, 28 inches below last year 

I just looked, it was June when your area did much better relatively to others in SNE. SE CT into adjacent RI.  Looks like you were just shy of 5” for June?

That must’ve been what I was remembering. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh that was like in the Spring

Ahh yeah, Ginxy was pulling inch-plus rains like they grew on trees it felt like.

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Of course lol but I am at 10% of normal last 9 months so how coarse is it really

I thought you were like the wettest spot for a while… when Scooter was bustin your balls over rain totals.  When was that?  

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tblizz, I don’t forecast out of emotion. If that was the case, you’d average 15” of snow per winter.

I picture 3-5 Mets in a forecast office discussing rain chances and MREF probabilities, upper air patterns and mid-level lows, etc for several hours trying to figure out if it’ll rain or storm.

Meanwhile some dude in a hammock in a Taunton backyard is like “Wasting your time. Ain’t gonna rain.  Hasn’t in months, why would it now.”  And goes back to napping in the hammock.

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

Im swan diving off my roof if this verifies. Would be pretty fitting though. Surgical precision swirling around the cape and Mass and then drenching PF and the rest of the crew that has been getting .50” of rain every other day for the last 6 weeks. 

 There was an earlier ICON run that clipped Methuen and Ray’s area hard while leaving all the rest of SNE out of it… and I was thinking that’s like Ray’s wet dream.  Something that spins back and dumps on him while 25 miles SW is smoking cirrus.

Hard to out-forecast pessimism for sure.

Apparently this guy was hit by a car on Mountain Road not far from me in Stowe.

575 pounds.  That’s like a zoo animal.  Some big guys wandering around this summer.

46F.  Great sleeping weather.

SLK at 37-38F.

Fake cooling in effect.  SLK @ 46F for 11pm.

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is pretty wet still. We hold the course. I’m not saying 5” is coming,  but I believe we have a good chance of beneficial rains. We’ll see. Still time to go to crap, but I’m hopeful.

Seems like a cold season synoptic approach to modeling.  We know there are wild run-to-run swings in the deterministic models so the next best utilization are the ensembles.

The hedge is somewhere in the middle between nothing and 2-5”.  Even a widespread synoptic soaking of 0.50-0.75” is highly beneficial.

1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said:

AUG nights in NNE...

 

Every. Single. Poster. in SNE is drooling over the lawn.  That's a true NNE summer vibe there. Right on man.

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein 

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Deep easterly flow is famously dry in New England. 

My quibble is definitely with his "always", as convection will induce a circulation of its own that can either enhance or diminish moisture transport. The circulation will be counter-clockwise around the convective feature, so a SW/NE oriented line of convection would tend to shunt moisture east. SE/NW oriented would do the opposite.

Ok yeah that’s what I always thought.  I hate seeing those strong convective lines angled SW to NE through the Ohio Valley and into Mid-Atlantic in winter storms while QPF gets trimmed every run lol.  In my head I always thought the more N-S oriented the “better.”  Maybe not fully knowing why but don’t like anything /…. this vertical | or \ please lol.

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Then there’s the 18z gfs LOL.

I should delete my last reply to Kev lol.

Fires will still be burning.

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Mid season form already. 

Doesn’t really look like a convection robbing moisture synoptic set up does it?  The SE to E deep layer flow… usually convection disrupting moisture transport seems more like SW to S flow or am I making that up?

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is anyone factoring in the Messenger shuffle ? I mean we are in a serious drought and folks are slam dunking a west trend with convection involved which always robs moisture transport. I’m surprised to see so many posters flooding the region . I do hope they’re correct though 

Thread reads like some folks are trusting the latest model guidance over their own internal fears or hopes.

Models were what they were.  In winter if you had Euro/GFS, would you be tossing them to ride the GGEM?

Aside from Stein tea-bagging you for three months, is there a lot of modeled reasons to go with straight miss?

84 hour NAM looks like it would hit too.

I want to see this version of DIT in December.  Caution flags being thrown left and right on every modeled snower.