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powderfreak

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Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    Yeah it was a great day up here. Nice 4-hour hike and now hanging outside. If it didn’t rain for the next three months I’d love it. No Stein concerns here, got a hose to the garden that works well. Looks like you’ve got more coming. Still a bunch streaming northward and those are likely efficient rainers. Bet you can get another half inch. We’ll see what CoCoRAHS shows tomorrow before we grade it in full. Terrible showing by the Euro in this.
  2. powderfreak
    Yeah I mean we all knew that would be localized, but widespread 1-2”, locally 3” will happen for sure. There’s still some good moisture feeding into dews in the low 60s. This thing’s rain is pretty far west considering the “concern” of it being a SE of 95 only event. At the very least most can go 7-10 days now before talking and it being dry.
  3. powderfreak
    I just learned what it means so… WTTE.
  4. powderfreak
    Yeah I get it. You guys look a bit more convective out east. But hard to think the floor is anything less than 0.50-1.00" at the least. That's a solid soaking. Vegetation is fine with that, doesn't need 3" with heavy runoff. Looks like TAN already has 0.20" in the bucket quickly. This stuff will be efficient. No way you get under an inch of rain.
  5. powderfreak
    12z GFS is out and yeah, prob worth being concerned.
  6. powderfreak
    Stein seems to have morphed into a “I didn’t jackpot” type of saying now. Get an inch of rain while others get 2-3”? Stein.
  7. powderfreak
    Yeah holds it at the CT River. The far west and far east models are both merging.
  8. powderfreak
    When it’s on it’s own against a consensus, it just isn’t the same steady model it used to be. The gap has closed. It still doesn’t swing as wildly as other models on the whole. The GFS and GGEM caught on runs ago to a look with heaviest rain “back to the River.” I have taken an odd interest in this model war . Even if it doesn’t concern my weather, hoping for dry here.
  9. powderfreak
    Yeah the first part is largely west of BOS-TAN with heaviest in CT/MA through 8pm. Then another slug comes through late tomorrow evening like 9pm-12am for SE.MA. I bet it’ll be tough to not start thinking Stein in SE MA later tomorrow waiting for it to slowly come east, ha.
  10. powderfreak
    EURO folded as expected when it’s on an island by its own. Huge shift west. Congrats Tolland.
  11. powderfreak
    Nahhh, he’d be tweeting BOX to be careful and keep snow amounts down. Telling them to certainly not issue blizzard warnings back to Litchfield/Berkshire counties. Maybe hold off on issuing any winter weather headlines at all northwest of I-95 until the final model gets on board. I love when Kev bucks the trend, keeps everyone on their toes.
  12. powderfreak
    Sitting at 3000ft wondering how much rain DIT gets.
  13. powderfreak
    Yeah that’s more east of river again. ICON shifted west but was very Euro-like at 12z… moved to about the RGEM.
  14. powderfreak
    I’ll go 1-1.5” for you. Might as well draw a line for fun. I do think the widespread 2-3” is overkill except for narrow convection.
  15. powderfreak
    Tough to compare 18z runs to a previous 12z run. We’ll see what the 18z Euro does. Euro is interesting but hard to toss all the other models, no? Even in winter when it was on an island most would be leaning towards all the others. A mean of all models would be a drenching for you.
  16. powderfreak
    Both NAMs. Might be a west shift. Not sure… will need to see what Fisher thinks. Gonna jackpot Mitch and BackEdge by 00z lol.
  17. powderfreak
    It’s like a Stockholm Syndrome… don’t want their captor to let them go free. Need to have a reason to discuss “Stein” and worship it. An inch of rain is immensely boring as it removes that dialog for at least 7-10 days.
  18. powderfreak
    That is a drastic difference than everything else. That won’t help Kev move off forecasting through fear.
  19. powderfreak
    Yeah agreed. Usually that stripe means a narrower area of heavy rain training totals, amid a more general widespread rain. I like your layout... say a narrow stripe of 2-3", among a more widespread 0.75-1.25" or something. Either way, should be a nice widespread drink.
  20. powderfreak
    I can't. I give up. Can only show a horse where the water is but can't make him drink it.
  21. powderfreak
    Toss in the Hirpes too as a big shift westward. Weird all the mesos like 3km NAM, HRRR, HRDPS, etc are so big way west. Must have identical algorithms or something.
  22. powderfreak
    Are you drunk? Or I'm more and more convinced you never look at model guidance (Twitter does not count as looking at model guidance lol). GFS/GGEM/RGEM/3kNAM/HRRR all westward shifts at 12z. GFS: GGEM went west. RGEM went west.
  23. powderfreak
    3km goes 2-4” swath through heart of forum. 12z HRRR.
  24. powderfreak
    32F min.
  25. powderfreak
    Wild. Stark difference sensibly.
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