powderfreak

Just wave after wave of water.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0690...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1200 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Corrected for Flash Flooding Likely Areas affected...Northern NY...State of VT...Western NH...Western MA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 101540Z - 102140Z SUMMARY...A significant and dangerous flooding event is likely to continue in parts of central New England as excessive rainfall rates look to persist into the afternoon hours. DISCUSSION...An upper low is beginning to form over central NY while an 850mb low is taking shape over the Lower Hudson Valley. Mean 850-500mb streamflow remains out of the south, and as the upper low deepens this afternoon, winds in the in the 850-700mb layer will become southeasterly. Latest RAP guidance shows strong 850mb theta-e advection originating from southern New England that will then wrap around the northern flank of the 850mb low. Unfortunately, this means that copious amounts of moisture will still be at athe atmosphere's disposal. The aforementioned southeasterly flow oriented orthogonally to the Green and White Mountains will also enhance rainfall rates due to upslope flow. Due to the large amount of cloud cover in place, CAPE values will be hard to come by (up to 500 J/kg generally), capping most hourly rainfall rates below 2"/hr. However, PWATs ranging between 1.5-1.75" remain at or above the 90th climatological percentile. Sampled RAP soundings throughout the highlighted region feature low-mid level RH values >90% and warm cloud layers up to 13,000ft deep. So despite the lack of instability, strong vertical ascent courtesy of divergent flow ahead of the upper low and a strong southeasterly 850mb moisture transport supports warm rain processes within areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Soils have become overly saturated and in some cases can no longer take in any additional rainfall. FFGs are exceptionally low, with portions of central and southern VT, western MA, and northeast of KALB sporting 6-hr FFGs <1.5". The latest 12Z HREF is showing 30-40% probabilities of 6-hr QPF > 100-yr ARI between 18-00Z today in northern VT, which is both impressive and highly concerning. Given the impacts parts of the region have already witnessed from this event, additional significant to even catastrophic impacts are expected. Potential impacts include but are not limited to flooded and washed out roads, flooded homes, mudslides, and fast moving creeks and streams. Mullinax ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...GYX... ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 45237307 45237215 45187138 44707131 43557168 42787211 42187268 42087331 42227380 42727410 43847388 44777372 45137353

It’s full, but so far only flooding parts of the forest along it. It’s in the trees in some spots but those are like the first line of defense. It’s not to the full high water mark I’ve seen where it’s fully out of the woods and into yards. I do think another 2-3” would start to get real interesting though. This thing can be ankle deep trickle I just walk up and down with the dog. Now it’s 10+ feet of muddy debris filled water.

Thanks guys, I’m good. Our pool may be in trouble though. Just checked basement and all is dry. We are not high up off the river but it’s enough. If water gets to us the entire town of Stowe is in SOS. I’m up to around 4” since 5pm yesterday.

3.50+ now storm total here with today and tonight to go.

The fact that models still have it going after midnight tonight up here is concerning. 7am on EURO.

Wife and are going out for a walk. River in the back is almost to our parking lot. Stowe Country Club is under water. Town fields are gone.

Okemo

RT 100 and RT 103 Washed out in Ludlow, VT. Those are big roads through there.

Numerous stations from Ludlow to Londonderry VT with 4-5” since midnight. That’s going to be a problem. Over 2.5” storm total here since yesterday afternoon. Moderate to heavy rain continues.

One has to wonder. Not going to lie, I am very intrigued at how this plays out given the consistent high-end model data. Maybe it’s a bust, but it’s been consistent. A great learning experience in progress either way. 00z GFS. 00z HERPES

Torrential rainfall. This stuff is very efficient... and loud. East side getting soaked. It's all draining within a couple hundred feet of my door. Tomorrow may be interesting for the West Branch.

Over 1” as steady rain continues. Ski area base at 1500ft is over 2”.

What are some of the station rainfall totals and duration around there? Thats high end stuff.

Still some huge bullseyes showing up north on the 00z models. 00z HRRR 5-10” Champlain Valley. 3km NAM… foot of water for the Spine. That would be a problem for the drainages.

There are mushrooms all over here and we’ve got more red on that map than your area. I believe Coastalwx. This afternoon on a trail I saw mushrooms everywhere. Red, orange, white. It’s the humidity/dews mixed with the rain there has been. I can’t believe you are that much drier there.

It always is this time of year. This map posted by Stein shows how NNE and SE SNE missed out the multi-day 2-6” event through the heart of SNE/CNE a few days ago. This summer just wants to rain. Big total events keep rolling through the region.

Click on “Next Day.” Its confusing. Can’t click on “Day 2” actually. Look at the forecast times. Click Next Day and Day 2 and you get it.

You need to go to Day 2. Tomorrow is the High Risk day.

Saw the 18z Euro continued to prolong the heavy rain threat. Tomorrow afternoon and night hold the risk up here after today’s table setting rainfall. We’ll see but tomorrow and tomorrow night always looked like the flood time up here. 6pm Tomorrow… Then still having convective water around at 6am Tuesday.

Several models highlighted that area too. Monadnock region too.

Hopefully. Will be plenty of rain regardless. Being cut off from civilization from washouts isn’t a lot of fun.

I don’t think that was the primary driver at all except locally here. There’s a front that’s relatively stationary down there. Up here it was just the very tip of the system and it was pretty evident it was packing water into the east slope from SE to NW movement. The real show up here is when that stuff down south moves through tomorrow. The damage up here should be tomorrow. Up to 0.90” at home and the river flow has doubled this evening, so it’s all run off.

SE flow ahead of the system hammering the east side of Mount Mansfield up here. Already 1.25”+ at base of the ski area compared to an inch less on western slope.

And we are on the board. 0.50” in under 15 minutes to start it off.