nj2va

4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

CMC further S too

Looks great!  

ICON still sucks (both as a model and for this threat) but it did shift south from 18z.  

7 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

I'm overall dubious about the cold air coming in hard from the E/NE late in the game as shown by the GFS. That might work if there was a modified arctic high sitting over Quebec, but there isn't here. 

We don’t want science based analysis at this point. Just weenie based. 

Maybe that's the compromise between Euro/GFS.  I'd take it in a heartbeat.

ICON continues to cut to basically Pittsburgh before transferring.

45 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I mean...it is pretty clear that all the other guidance made a major move to the GFS. Obviously them meeting in the middle even now wouldn't be great, but I don't see any reason to think this thing has no chance based on the 12z suite, looks to me like a good argument to be made that the GFS is leading the way. 

I realize we're a glass half empty forum for snow, but agree with this.  The maps above show the clear shift towards a GFS solution - too early to say which 'camp' is going to be right.  At least its nice to track something beyond -NAO signals.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Idk man… toggling it back from 00z it was a pretty big jump. Kinda looks like it’s behind the GFS by 2 cycles.

Maybe they meet in the middle and we get screwed. But maybe the GFS isn’t done moving yet and the middle is OK

Agreed, I think that was a decent enough shift.  There’s even been shifts within 100 hours that have been meaningful this winter with our last two events so I don’t think anyone can confidently say they know the final outcome.

4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

GEFS coming in hot.  

Triple blue'd.

That was close to a big dog.  Just missed the phase.

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

On balance, it is a TON more fun to have one of the majors doing this five days from an event even if it is on an island - just fun to dream a bit - especially given that this is still the period before THE PERIOD OF INTEREST. 

Yeah, we don't need the constant reminders its on its own...lets just weenie out and dream.  

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

DCA is the new snow capital of the east.  Whodathunkit

I like seeing that H north of us over Canada, sinking south as the LP deepens.  Get that a bit stronger and more south in Canada and it'd be even better.

Sunrise alert.  Gorgeous oranges, pinks and purples.

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

CMC solution makes it tempting to road-trip to downeast Maine for this one. Holy shit. 

Nubble Lighthouse in a blizzard would be pretty. 

CMC cuts to Buffalo then transfers off the jersey coast.  Bombs into a snowicane for coastal NE. 

The classic transfer from Pittsburgh to the coast. Those always work for us…

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

it showed up again at 6z.  Almost the same evolution.  huh

The big ones lock in early.  

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

That one deserves a FOLKS!

PD3

Wow, upper pattern showing the potential

ICON is basically if the NAM went past 84H as a global model.  Just not worth discussing.

12-18”

We need a 'Winchester pummeled' post at 00z.

OMG, I would have screamed.

Canadian went from a cutter at 12z to a low that tracks over Norfolk at 00z (still rain for the area though).