nj2va

NAM’d

For this storm, that’s a NAMing

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It also helps to be at the summit of a ridge because of upslope.  Being at 1030 at the summit of a ridge is way different than at 1030 in a valley.  Not the same results...  

Yeah, I didn’t know what upslope meant until I had a place at 2800 feet. 

You’d think PSU lives at Mt Washington or something. 

they should have kept the game tomorrow. Would have been epic 

https://x.com/jasrifootball/status/1746315273903186209?s=20

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Lol poor Ji

I thought the same thing. 

18z Euro upped the ante vs 12z.  1-3” with slightly higher amounts in central/northern MD.

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Speaking of.. the latest edition is a damn near perfect h5 depiction. It has been very consistent with this look overall for the back half of winter. -NAO develops earlier but this period is where the pattern really becomes mature. Hard to see on this view but that is a west based -NAO.

We should have multiple chances with that long wave pattern if it verifies. Way better than last winter when we were already tracking cherry blossoms. 

3 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

Just in from 3 hours of crust busting shoveling.  Haven’t touched the deck yet, may save it for tomorrow as I am beat.  The driveway and ingress/egress to cabin however are open for business.

22/12 with wind gusts to about 40 and steady upslope snow showers.  This is about as wintery as I have seen it up here since the arctic front on 12.23.2022

yeah, the plow guy took 90 minutes to clear our hill and driveway.  This stuff is no joke…I’m surprised you didn’t break your shovel ha.  Agreed, it’s definitely the “most winter” I’ve seen since then here.  Roads were pretty slick as we headed to church earlier this evening.

19.7 with SN.  Hard to tell how much we’ve gotten today with the winds today but I’d guess around 3”.  

WWA for another 2-5” overnight through tomorrow morning.  

Temp down to 21. Sitting on the porch with a hot toddy watching the snow fall. My partner said I’m crazy - I told him just wait til I stay up til 1a tonight to track 1” of snow at home Tuesday.

Short video from the porch:
 

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

Anyone have euro snowmap for tues deal?


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Temp down to 25.9 with winds gusting into the 30s. Got a good snow shower blowing through and there’s 8-12” snow depth/glacier on the ground. You can walk on the snow without falling through to the bottom it’s so dense/frozen.



And can’t go without a deck pic:

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

lol...Ukie

With how old SV graphics look, that could be a snow map from 1989 honestly

1 hour ago, mdhokie said:

Do you get your drive plowed? I showed up this morning to a glacier. Luckily my neighbor came up this afternoon with his bobcat and got me a path to park the cars. It’s going to turn into an iceberg this weekend. 

Yeah, we have a local plow guy do it.  We live up at the top of an unpaved hill - I wasn’t expecting this much snow to be on the ground so we didn’t call to get our hill plowed.  Luckily made it up to the house (a few spots where I didn’t think we would) but he’s coming in the morning to plow the hill.  4WD and snow tires FTW!

Just got to deep creek. 32 degrees with an icy mix. Hit a patch around Mt Storm, WV that was nearly white out with heavy snow and gusty winds. 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The latest blend for the early week storm. Still solid.

Hopefully it holds here, would like to prevent last week's storm where this just kept bleeding totals until gametime.  

It almost looks like (at least for the Euro’s solution verbatim), we would have been better if the coastal never formed.  Once it did, it robbed the WAA precip that was aimed at us.  

Once the coastal formed, it was just too far east/off the coast to matter.   It stopped the bleeding and that was good to see - onto the ensembles.

3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Meh, good time to start a thread. I mean, it's going to be something. Even if an inch or less of cold smoke before the coldest air of the season so far. Best to get this separated from the medium range thread that will probably have other trackable systems around Jan 19-20 and beyond.

I like it. LFG!

If he’s in, I’m in.

I just got whiplash from the last two pages of posts.

I think we should go ahead and start a thread before the 12z runs.  Let's really make people here panic by starting a thread...........................

2 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

 

Yeah, this ML one in particular shows a storm ...

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202401120000&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401121200

So this is an AI model generated by the EMCWF based on the Euro data?

Members over 2” ticked up to 23/30 for DC.  I’ll take P15 please.

WPC for Days 4 and 5 and snippet of the disco - they don’t seem to favor the Euro’s solution.

The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministic
runs are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshore
of the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance and
the EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately the
ECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run for
the 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that could
help with the model diagnostics.

ETA:  Oops sorry, posed earlier too.

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

00z gfs anyone? Since we’ve got one a weird tangent about next winter already and ji is posting 500mb maps for 11 months out.


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It doesn’t come out for another hour by the time our storm is in range. 

Just now, WxUSAF said:

It’s like 100 times better than 12z

this. I’d much rather see that than 18z keep going towards its 12z ‘where the storm at’ idea.