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nj2va

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Everything posted by nj2va

  1. nj2va
    I feel like the look in early January (from yesterday/two days ago) would work for us…high heights in the AO/NAO and the pacific ridge shifted east just enough to mute the SE ridge. If we can just get a bit of help from the Pacific with the current look in the Atlantic we’d be in the game. and overall I’d rather a favorable Pacific IMO.
  2. nj2va
    This is one of the reasons we bought the house at Deep Creek. 110” average although they are off to an atrocious start to winter with (probably) less than 10” so far. it’s important living here to travel to get the snow fix. otherwise it’s just staring at the GEFS waiting for the pacific to stop sucking. glad you had a good time!
  3. nj2va
    I’ll take a +PNA over a -NAO.
  4. nj2va
    Time to start Winter 2022-2023 thread?
  5. nj2va
    Also, I feel like it's been 3 years of AN precipitation so I'm not worried about some kind of sustained drought. I feel like we revisit this thread every few months and then laugh when have a 200% rainfall month "out of the blue" and this thread goes back to page 5.
  6. nj2va
    Yep, for sure. And to your earlier point, with the majority of talk this AM about can kicking, I’d take a gamble with that look any day over the pattern we are dealing with now.
  7. nj2va
    27 and frosty. Merry early Christmas!
  8. nj2va
    Something tells me that in that setup, we aren’t talking about tracking something from 10 days out. If we can stay on the right side of the boundary, it’s more likely we’d have legit threat show up within 5 days IMO.
  9. nj2va
    Have a great time!
  10. nj2va
    Yep, was just looking at that too. You can see the progression the last week of December where the -EPO shifts east to push the W trough east (and the -EPO reloads)...and we have a broad CONUS trough with a -AO/-NAO. + precip anomalies in the TN valley/mid-atlantic with BN temps...can't ask for much better than that at this point.
  11. nj2va
    Ice storm Can you share the features at 500 that favor an ice storm in this setup? Would like to know what to look for.
  12. nj2va
    We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo. The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS. But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently. As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge. You’d think there’d be some chances with this look.
  13. nj2va
    27 for the low.
  14. nj2va
    It’s been a terrible start to winter for the ski resorts so happy to see snow making conditions back. Wisp and Canaan making snow too on the cams.
  15. nj2va
    Start a new thread for January?
  16. nj2va
    As dumb as this product is, I love the fact that DC has more snow on that clown map than NYC. It’d be mass weenie suicide in the NYC forum if that happens.
  17. nj2va
    Happy anniversary weenies! https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/
  18. nj2va
    Light rain the last hour. Sadly the scene doesn’t look like @snowfan
  19. nj2va
    To my weenie uneducated eyes it also looks like we’re being helped there by the -EPO ridge shifting East pushing the western trough to the east, creating a broad CONUS trough (and the SE ridge gets shunted). Someone way more smarter than me could probably correct everything I just fooked up.
  20. nj2va
    I’m sure I’ll get flamed for saying this but I don’t get the game cancellations/postponements/etc. If the NHL/NBA/NFL are all 95-100% vaccinated, why do they need to bench players who are positive? If anything this shows we’ll be living with COVID forever (and 100% vaccination doesn’t end this) - so it seems like we should learn how to live with it instead of continuing to cancel/postpone/etc.
  21. nj2va
    Yeah, with a massive -NAO that its showing, I'd be surprised if things are cutting like that. Also looks like GFS and Euro both showing a -EPO developing (if I know how to read a 500 map correctly).
  22. nj2va
    Rule 3634: It takes models a few cycles to see blocking and push the LPs under us. But…. Rule 3635: It takes models a few more cycles to see the real blocking and push the LPs to Cuba.
  23. nj2va
    Amazing what one model run can do to the LR thread mood.
  24. nj2va
    Time to take my 2:30 meeting 'on the road' walking around the neighborhood.
  25. nj2va
    Remember the days when we could never get blocking? It seemed to snow more then.
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