Wannabehippie

Will all that cold air, with the accompanying big high pressure system suppress everything south, with just a few light snow events via clippers coming thru, or will we squeeze in a system to ride up the coast? Stay tuned.

Any model is going to have a greater degree of error past 5 days than in the short term. So many different pieces need to fall in to place to get a huge snowstorm for the big cities in the Atlantic corridor. The Greenland block needs to be in just the right spot. EPO, NAO, AO, PNAall set up just right. MJO in the right phase. Not too strong of a high coming down from Canada. Anything out of place and that big storm doesn't form or hit. This is why I try not to get excited about anything past 5 days, no matter which model is showing something.

Any snow piles that I had left are being washed away this evening. I expect them all to be gone by morning. Ready for a fresh snow.

The next model doesn't really show this classic Miller A. Nor does the one after that. Typical for systems a week out IMHO.

That feels like a typical January thaw.

I think what a lot of people here forget that you need everything to come together perfectly to get a big snowstorm for the coastal corridor. Cold air in place, storm diving down to the gulf of mexico, picking up moisture, coming up the coast. Or energy from Canada merging with a coastal system to throw snow back in to the big cities (eg Miller A or Miller B systems) It is not easy to get all the pieces in place for a 12"+ system. More likely we are going to get clipper type systems with light amounts, or that might get energized a bit as they approach the coast to give us systems that give us 2" - 8" of snow. Not to mention that all of the models have greater degree of error the further out they try to predict. You get a model showing a huge coastal system on one run, and on the next it is suppressed way to the south.

Only snow left by me is the piles left by the snow plows cleaning out the parking lots.

It is gone on the 18z.

I am probably mixing it up then with a different winter.

Power plants are expensive to operate, no surprise they sold them off. IIRC 1996 had snow on the ground for almost all winter. I remember my street being snowpacked, with just ruts where car tires went thru, until late February. This big blizzard was tough to dig out from because of what you mentioned, intensity dropped off a bit, then ramped up more. Even with going out there every couple of hours, it was a lot of back breaking shoveling, just because there was so much of it.

Quadrantids meteor showers are about peak right now.

I am surprised at how many changes we see over North America we see, when the Greenland block weakens a bit, but is in place until at least the 19th as per the models.

How well insulated is your home? Poor insulation can really drive up the amount of oil/gas/electric you use to heat your home.

The 9th? Are any other models or runs supporting this look yet?

Another clipper type system? Unless those get energized when they hit the coast, precip is going to be on the light side as they have no moisture to work with. From what I saw on the models southern jet is cut off from the northern one, so no sytems diving south to pick up GoM moisture, then coming up the coast for a wallop.