ChescoWx

AM Low 39.5 - looks like the growing season will continue here in the Frozen Tundra of NW Chesco into November - Wxsim has lowest temp over rest of month at 36. However, if Wxsim forecast temps were to verify over the remainder of the month we would finish at only 1.7 degrees above normal for the month and would be our chilliest October since 2015. Wxsim also shows 2.75" of rain by Sunday with the storm this weekend/

23 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

It's fascinating to me how far that pendulum shifted. What I'm not too fond of is that when we look back at October 2018 and "only" see a slightly above normal temp for the month, the fact that it was still in the 70's and 80's for half the month will be obscured. It's just too bad that anomalous weather is becoming less so in this climate.

Yes - It's really just the fact weather has always and will continue to move toward the norm/averages. However, we still only valid true climate norms/averages that go back no more than 150 years....just a small slice of the earth's constantly changing and evolving climate and it's phases and stages.

With yesterday's 9th of the last 11 days of below normal temps we have plunged from an average temp of 68.1 or +11.2 above normal on October 12th to now an average temp of 59.4 which is only +4.0 degrees above normal. Today looks to be our last chance of near to above normal temps this month. It is looking increasingly likely that we may totally reverse the positive anomaly from the 1st 2 weeks of the month before month's end.

I did look at that some years back but did not remember it having the data edit function...I may indeed revisit that one - thanks again!! Paul

4th of last 5 mornings in the 30's but with this AM being the lowest at 35.1.....but of course still no freeze here on the non-frozen tundra of the Welsh Mountain anticline in NW Chester County

On 10/15/2018 at 11:52 AM, Hurricane Agnes said:

Hey Paul - You may have stumbled on this already but there is one out there called "Weather Display" http://www.weather-display.com/index.php  It seems to have a rather active forum and I even noted that it had a WxSim subforum too since I think you use that as well.  I can't vouch for it (with all the rest of my hobbies I wish I had the time to devote to something like this), but it might be one to try.  It has a 30-day fully functional free trial to boot.

Thanks! I have also tried weather display and am unfortunately not a big fan....I can't believe nothing better than VWS has surfaced in all these years.... but thanks!!

Paul

To put how unseasonable this chill has been - today's maximum temperature in Chester County of 46.9 is the 2nd lowest max temp for this date since records began way way back in 1894 only this date back in 1974 with 46.0 was a colder day....very impressive early season chill! We were as much as 9 degrees above normal for the month just 1 week ago we are not down to only 4.6 above normal....we could potentially erase the entire positive averages by month end. Now the NWS has put this area under a freeze warning....while I am confident lower spots under 600 ft may indeed see sub 0c readings...those of us with a little elevation will likely hang just above the freezing mark tonight as is usually the case in these situations. 

Temps have continued to slowly fall here in NW Chesco currently at 42.3 - temps will stay in the 40's here today after a midnight high of 46.5 .... While down the shore in Sea Isle City after a midnight high of 56.3 and an AM low of 47.7 - temps have bounced back to 49.2. High wind gust overnight down the shore was 26mph

AM Low 36.1 (lowest so far this fall season) in East Nantmeal with some frost scattered across the Township this AM...but no freeze so the growing season continues for local farmers as we are now up to 181 days which on average should end over the next 7 days based on local records since 1894. With 5 of the last 6 days averaging below normal we are still running at 6.1 degrees above normal through yesterday

This morning's low temp of 38.2 was our 1st temp in the 30's this fall season with our last reading in the 30's back on April 30th. Our high today in Chester County was only 49.2 (avg is 62.4) - this was our 1st day with the temp remaining in the 40's since April 19th.  Currently down to 39.2 here with lower spots like Marsh Creek at 538ft and Glenmoore at 538 feet already down to 34 degrees....expect lower spots in the county to fall below freezing while those of us over 650 ft will stay above freezing overnight with only scattered frost

Even with today's midnight high of 59.0 we had our 3rd of the last 4 days of below normal temps. Looking at the Euro over the next 10 days every day is below normal with some well below normal temps by the end of the period. In fact looking at long range models we might be below average right through Thanksgiving....weather does have a way of evening out.

Hey Justin - Davis only comes with weathlink - which really stinks! Hence why I use Virtual Weather Station but trying to see if anyone has any other suggestions that might have more ability to customize for local data norms and extremes etc.

Looking at the models both the EURO and GFS have Chester County reaching 34 next Friday morning. If that were to come to pass that would be 181 days since our last sub-freezing temperature back on April 21st. One of our many local farmers in the Township emailed me to ask if I knew or could calculate what was the length of the growing (freeze free) season in East Nantmeal. I surmised that with our modest increase in elevation we should expect less sub freezing readings than the lower valley locales due to less impact from radiational cooling on clear and calm nights. 

For perspective the latest sub freezing temperature was the 32 degree reading way back on May 28, 1927 and the earliest first freeze observed was on September 20, 1956. That growing season of 1956 was the shortest growing season in the county with the last freeze on May 24th resulting in a season of just 119 days. By contrast back in 2005 we had our longest growing season of 233 days. Which is almost 4 more months freeze free weather.

The COOP data from 1894 to 1983 was observed at 340 feet above sea level (ASL) down in the Chester Valley; while readings from 1984 to Present have been observed at over 660 feet ASL on the north ridge of the valley that runs from SW to NE across the middle of Chester County. The number of average below freezing days was 127 at the lower elevations and has decreased to only 115 on average at the higher locales.  At the lower elevations the growing season averaged 172 days. At the higher elevations it has averaged 188 days.

Of interest for the 89 years from 1894 to 1983 there were only 2 seasons that exceeded 200 growing days (1912 and 1938) since 1984 there have been 13 such seasons...including 11 of the past 14 years and the last 4 years 2014-17. 

We are now down to 49.5 here in Chester County PA....this is our 1st sub 50 (40's club) degree reading of the fall season. Of note this is the latest first 40's temp here in Chester County since NWS Coop records began back in 1894! All other 1st 40's temps were recorded in August or September

Hi Justin,

I do not have a budget in mind - I look forward to hearing any suggestions 

Thanks again!

Paul

Latest from the folks at Weatherbell

https://www.weatherbell.com/late-september-winter-forecast

From Paul Dorian with Perspecta, Inc.

"It looks like a cold and snowy winter for much of the eastern half of the nation"

https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/10/11/2018-2019-winter-outlooklooks-like-a-cold-and-snowy-winter 

Meteorologist Paul Dorian with Perspecta, Inc.

How crappy is Eli....unfortunately I feel not one bit better about the birds....that team with the exception of Saquon is brutal....I am starting to think last season's Eagles Super Bowl was all about the planets alignment. 

On a weather note rain down to a drizzle with 0.78" here in NW Chesco...much more to our SE this evening....now autumnal weather begins!

0.54" of rain so far today. We are now up to 63.06" of rain for the year. This is tied for 3rd wettest year with 2003 and behind only 1996 at 75.12" of rain and 1979 with 66.88" of rain. Our local Chester County PA records go back to 1894.

Hey guys,

I have been using Virtual Weather Station from Ambient since 1997 for my home station (see below). Are there any suggestions for better software? What are you using? I would love to find a software that allows me to add/edit daily climate normals (hi/lo) and daily records into the database and have those show up on the desktop screen when I open the program.

Any feedback or thoughts would be most appreciated

Thanks to all!

Paul

Yesterday's Hi/Lo in Chester County - 76.7/67.6 only +14 above normal for the day. Foggy start to the day here in Chesco while down the shore in Sea Isle City a beautiful beach day underway! All of this ends as the period between tomorrow eve and near turkey day looks to be a good bit cooler than normal...weather does have a way of evening out! 

High today in East Nantmeal in Chester County 70.9 with a low of just 68.1 - that low is 22 degrees above normal for today!  Persistent easterly flow off the still warm ocean (72 degrees) and low clouds and fog kept the ranges tight. Through the 1st 8 days of the month we are running at +10.2 degrees above normal. Here where warmth comes to die in the Hills of Chester County we of course have not hit 80 degrees and will not until next spring but some of you lower folks in the county and surrounding areas may have one more shot over the next couple days before some cooler than normal air moves our way toward the weekend.

Latest Weatherbell update this week for winter forecast stays the course with below normal temps and above average snowfall. Analog years used are the following with East Nantmeal snow totals -analog average projection is 58.2" of snow

2002-3 - 62.6"

2006-7 - 25.3"

2009-10 - 86.6"

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

It's like three or four days of average temperatures with a building ridge and a return to warmth behind it. Could make a run for a record October which was set LAST year. Balancing out how?

 

Hi Red Sky,

Data I am looking at like the attached indicate much cooler than normal which while not cancelling out the 1st 2 week warmth will bring us to a more reasonable October average temp vs. normals

.03" of rain last evening - It's been almost a month since our last 80+ day here in NW Chester County - looks like one last small shot here on Monday. That said above normal temps continue next week but big change to below normal starts toward next weekend. Weather does have a way of balancing out....