ChescoWx

JB not surprisingly has not been buying the further north solutions and put out a snow map yesterday that had accumulating snow down to Philly....not sure what he was thinking but....he is not backing down and of course he likes the trends. He also commented Philly and DC will get their snow in Feb/March - he says the snow season is just beginning there.

"I think this storm now is more than likely to trend further south on each run rather than north.. it is what I am counting on. The NAM has suddenly shifted south, though admittedly neither run is not to where I think they have to get ( 50-100 miles south of the current forecasts) But we should wind up with a storm on the Va Capes Sunday night and the upper max far enough south so what usually happens in February when that happens, happens. As it is it appears for the NE the relentless pounding is just going to get worst, with severe cold now coming in stronger waves and the threats of snow"

"As confident as I was with the target period Jan 26-Feb 10 back on the 15th. While some of you have not shared in the total woe ( is as if it wont spread around the wealth as far as snow) there will be a new regime on the helm here that will make sure the proper redistribution of miserable weather occurs, even while taxing the wealthiest of the winter cold and snow even more"

Steve D at NYNJPA weather updated as follows

For South and East of I95 a trace-2" of snow quickly to rain

For the I95 corridor including Philadelphia 1-3" snow and 0.1 to 0.3" of ice

For Lancaster to East Nantmeal Townhip to Doylestown to TTN to NYC he has 3" to 6" of snow and 0.1" to 0.3" of ice with Snow to Ice and back to snow

For Harrisburg to RDG to Qtown to Just near ABE to NYC he has 5" to 10" of snow with 0.1 to 0.25 of ice

All Snow to the NW of that with 6" to 12" +

"

Nice write up from JB this evening....

January 31 06:35 PM

"I dont now where Paul Stokols is now. He was (is) a giant to me, the first person to teach me about the negative EPO back in the 1970s. He was part of the gifts from the good lord that arrived at PSU, a whole slew of Meteo grad students, that took me under their wing and showed me alot of what I use today. I name rules after who taught them to me. I have no idea if these rules are named after anyone else. I was taught to always credit the person that taught me and I do.

A word about Paul. He became part of the mid range forecast center back in the 1980s, that included Joe Shipps and Dave Weinstein. He then went to the Fire Center and became the Chief. But the rule in DC was a 55 heights THK 540 and heights falling when snow started, it stayed snow.

The reason is fairly intuitive. If the heights are still rising it is a sign that the ridge is still building and the war advection that is causing the snow in the first place is going to win. If they fall, then the rate of cooling aloft is enough to sustain the snow. Its like the BGM rule and Central Park On a northwest wind the temp in the park is 13 higher than BGM is 5 hours later. As with all rules there are exception.

Now Paul like me was a snow geek. So I am sure the rules developed for DC dont have to apply else where. But chances are if it starts snowing and the height fall, it will stay snow

So lets "play: with my back yard State college. It starts snowing around noon tomorrow, and the heights hold steady then fall. Should stay almost all snow. If it sleets or freezing rains for a while, it will be because we had a heck of alot of precip

The there is my dads rule, though he may have heard it from Norm Macdonald on WBZ I remember as a kid lamenting the hours when it was cold in ACY and it was not snowing but it was snowing west of us. It would come in as a few flakes but have warmed up so it rained. " It snows where it wants to snow" I heard that first in 1966 when the week before the blizzard of 66, we had a snowstorm forecasted and it rained. My great friend Bernie Rayno tweeted today that he heard that from the great Norm MacDonald of WBZ weather fame when he worked at the place I used to work at. If so, then perhaps that rule from Dad was something he saw on WBZ, I know I used to say it around work all the time, but if Norm said it first ten its his rule. How does it apply here? Watch the snow tomorrow. Where that streak goes, is going to have a heck of a storm and chances are the changeover line wont move north more than 100 miles

So why am I so different. Well think about this. What does the model have the best chance of hitting? What is right in front of it, right? Well it is headed toward a warm air festival, the downsloping west of the Appalachians. So it should pull up into SE Ohio and to SW pa. But its ONLY after it actually sees what is or isnt waiting for it in an east of the mountains, that it is likely to figure out where to go after. This is still 24 hours away, IMO in really having a handle on it. Am I right, well we will have to see. I have my oltdimers rule, and they dont involve slitting my throat over a NAM or GFS run. That being said I fully understand I may be wrong.

What I am not wrong about though is the pattern producing this. Enjoy it It is highly unlikely after this winter, in your lifetime you will see a SNOW DEPTH forecast like this, close to 40" ne of Pit and Se Mass. So I am not going to get all bent out of shape and grieve over backyard debacles including my own back yard. If I miss by 50 miles but explained the why before the what a week before, I just cant get upset about it anymore. Yell at the local forecasters that 5 days before had a chance of snow showers in the forecast. But here is what I can say. This target period, the 10 day Feb 1-5, the other 10 day call for the storm we went through in the east, the period Jan 26-Feb 10 which was made around Jan 15 to counter the wave of despair, just like we saw in mid Jan 2010, that winter was over ( Again the SOI crashed and look what the cattle prod did) were all part of a bigger message. WINTER HAS JUST BEGUN TO FIGHT"

I like him he is generally more conservative compared to JB but not as conservative as LC 

Just curious, what are your thoughts on Steve DiMartino?

Steve D updated at 145pm with some slight revisions to what he now calls his Final forecast - although he knows there is some room for error if he is wrong with a track thru SJ

Zone from Glasgow E - PHL - West Deptford NJ to Mt Holly (1" to 3" of snow to rain and back to snow with .10 to .25 of ice)

Zone from Southern Lancaster County to Coatesville to Willow Grove to Trenton (3" to 6" of snow to ZR and back to snow with 0.10 to 0.30 of ice)

Zone from LNS to East Nantmeal Twp to Doylestown (6" to 12" of snow and snow mixed with sleet back to all snow before ending ice a trace to .05")

Zone from Harrisburg to Reading to ABE (6" to 12"+ with potential for more with banding)

Steve D with NJPA Weather also believes this will tick south by tomorrow's 12z runs...he has

4"-8" of snow to a mix in Philly

8"-12" Just NW of Philly out to a LNS/Lionville/Conshy/TTB line

NW of that line he has an 8" to 12" + forecast with less mixing

More from JB on why the EURO is right

"Forgot this: A positively tilted trough has the deepening for the surface low rely more on warm advection( run to where the warmth is) The old rule is negative tilt, deepen from top down until the surface can get going and feed back. Neutral tilt about 50/50, positive the deepening is more from warn advection and as the system deepens the upper feature gets pulled tighter toward it. Dr John Cahir, used to call these positvely tilted front runners with most of the precip in front of them. In any case the new nam does not have the look of a storm that bowls through the mountains, but extends east It is highly unlikely the reform will be this far north. The reason: The isobars in front of the storm at 42 hours, seen here are pointed AWAY from the low center, rather than toward it. So the warm air is having an easy time heading northeast, but not north. The all is for this to redevelop near the mouth of the Delaware, not off Toms River. Once again though its a 50 mile edge forecast for the biggest market in the nation. Given the parallels I see to the position of the storm and the 500 mb forecast, which is very similar to 1967 once to NYC, ( that was a positively tilted trough that went ti neutral, and again I realize the storms evolved different, but the marriage of the analog is like a guy and a girl that came from different towns but wound up together.. arent I romantic?) I will hold with the 6-10 locally 15 ( forecast within 25 miles of CP) I can see the 2 or 3 and rain, certainly, but I can see the 15 too. In any case I did not mention this earlier. That waa term is just as important as upper divergence and once that southwest wind is howling out over the water east of the MA coast it will try to draw the redevelopment toward it, and it will very hard with the low having to reform with all the other factors going on, for it to bowl through the mountains and have the needed south to southeast wind in the warm sector to push that front north"

JB post this AM on why the GFS will correct back south by tomorrow AM

"When I laid this storm out earlier in the week, when models were well south, the call was for a low to get to southern Ohio, then reform on the coast and head out s of New England. GIven that the corridor of heaviest snow is now closer to I-80 than I-70, there has been a north adjustment, not so much in the position of the low over Se Ohio, but further east. But should that continue. I dont think so, it may continue on the models till tomorrow then come back south again. Why?

"The negative NAO right now the track will be influenced. The GFS, perhaps correctly, simply bully the storm through the mountains . This looks wrong. First of all cold dry air is drilling south off the east coast. This air will be pulled back in as the storm comes in, and though it would have warmed on its journey south, it cools coming back if moistened. 2cnd. Where ever the precip breaks out, the cold air will fight, even if the fresh cold to the north has not arrived. This is a cold air mass, its still cold advecting, Hard to believe within 48 hours and after so much precip, its routed. 3rd. The front from the north. This is going to keep pressing east of the mountains and as it does it will be drawn in. The fact is that a storm pulls air from every where, including in front of it, toward it. If you think about how that works, the wind blowing from higher pressure to lower pressure in the low levels, when the rate of Warm advection is greater than rate of warming in the low levels, is what leads to upward motion. Have a reason for the low levels to fight, there is greater overrunning which in turn changes the pressure field. Moral: Watch where it starts as snow.. chances are any place more than 100 miles north of that stays snow ( with some sleet at the height of the storm)

The ECMWF ensemble shows what I am talking about, as it has the "damming" look for the low, with the warm front being the boundary the low goes too"

Some words of comfort for those feeling a bit forlorn because of the weather from none other than Ray's favorite MET.....JB (I know Ray...tongue firmly in cheek(TIC) as he is NOT your favorite) - hold on to your hats....but he see's big things coming...very unlike JB to hype something (I know again TIC)

"Okay the western edge of this did not pan out. The accumulation in the 5 boroughs looking at the reports should have been 6-12 inches. The storm I used as closest, Feb 1978, haD 15-20 inches in NYC and south down the Jersey shore, a foot back to PHL.

But its time for those so ruthlessly stomped on by this injustice to stop your sobbing Its tough to listen to the woe is me stuff out of NY area snow geese. Any of you get one of those 15 day app from the media hype companies. Just how much snow was on it for NYC and what did temperatures look like 10 days ago for the 5 days ending now. I am sure they did not have the 10-15 inches of snow that has fallen around NYC. I got called by a major snow client of mine Saturday and he said he was watching forecasts and there was very little indication of this, and that was after the Friday night debacle the other way around New York So lets get our heads up and get ready, because this display will rival the 78 winter

So in the last 10 days, we had an ice event that stopped everyone , a clipper an storm underforecasted and a storm that in most winters ( around NYC) is a pretty stout event, all this in the so called Jan Thaw period, and we are feeling down?""

^{JB on his video this morning said the the 15 days thru the first week of February....he believes will be "epic" for weather weenies. He says between the snow, rumours of snow (no doubt he will not fuel any of those!) and severe cold which he is certain is coming will make this a very memorable time for those who love winter weather. Coldest period will be days 10 to 15.} 

JB thinks the POTENTIAL is there for what the European is showing to come to fruition. He thinks there will be spots in the mid-atlantic to New England that might be able to near their seasonal snow averages before the end of the month. He said it has the earmarks of a period of time weather weenies will long remember. Of course he qualifies the statement with he is not yet making a forecast but patted WXBELL team on their backs for seeing the cold returning when so many others were saying winter over etc

not so swell....but he did keep saying he was being stubborn - which as we all know is his bias. Still overall on pattern recognition he has been top notch this year with the exception of the delayed but not denied December cold

how did this do

Dr. Joe D weighed in that anyone thinking winter is over is in for a rude awakening....also JB in his post today said the WB team is confident their winter forecast is right on track...even with the longer December thaw then they forecasted.....we shall see what we shall see.

From JB today - no changes (call me shocked!)

 "Because the GFS is likely to vary between runs like last night and runs where it jumps energy out front. The ECMWF is in its drag its heels time frame. So as far as my ideas.. no changes.

A model showing what 06z had is no more valid to me than one that has nothing from this stage. In the scheme of the entire global pattern, these are very tiny systems that if they vary a bit , means alot as far as the sensible weather result. I am old pattern recognition forecasting.. I have a strong max going south of the four corners with a big arctic high in the northeast supported by high heights that have to collapse in the Wed-Fri Period. There should be a big storm. With models all over the place, I will stay with what I have for now

I guess that was a comment, but the comment is there is no change in what I was commenting on"

From JB on the midday Euro

"Just a brief comment to acknowledge what you all see. I wont be changing my ideas, I like this pattern for the threat of major phasing on the east coast, understand why I may be wrong, but also given the history of storms that have occurred with features out of the southwest, pulling my idea 5 days away may just be an invitation to flip flop"

no arguments on JBs point there....no doubt you are one of those who see him as a hypester......I clearly do not but when it comes to JB folks are very passionate on both sides of the aisle so no use arguing why I see him as kind of like Fox News.....fair and balanced - the antithesis of MSNBC if you will.

That said as I always say my first source of weather information comes from the best - the PHL Mount Holly Team!

this is pure entertainment, I mean I almost fell off my chair:

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/551923979913805824

 

then you have the other guy in Richmond ranting & raving about the 4" this morning in DC in the face of the official 1-2" forecast however when you look at his map you see 1-2" for Balt., DC, & immediate burbs

 

can't make this stuff up

JB today seeing the cold continuing for the most part with possible brief pull backs but overall a cold pattern for the next couple months also saying the models won't see it but watch for the 2nd strong arctic outbreak following this week's impressive one to be attacked by an upper feature that the models will lose but will result in "quite the snowstorm from the plains to the east coast in the 8 to 11 day period.

From NYNJPAweather - Steve D - tweet this AM "I do still think winter delivers and in a big way. We just got a little side tracked"

Latest from the WeatherBell team and specifically a tweet from JB this PM

"We think what happened in the mid and latter part of November is on the way next 2 to 3 weeks, but mid-winter style. We can compare come mid January" No doubt we shall compare......right here!

Also on the WB website he says after the PM Euro came out today " Amazing how the colder this gets...the more I hear people say nothing is going on - Here is the problem - ONCE THE ARTIC AIR IS IN THE PATTERN, then we shall see what these different short waves do and how the models handle them. I would not even write off the first one early next week, the models have next to nothing with it now....let's see what this looks like on Sunday"

JB admitted to his big bust on the amount of the USA by Christmas morning....good to see no excuses this time!

Many at least dusted off some snow and some of us did indeed shovel snow!

Yeah those JB tweets were from Dec 3 and 4, so those ideas weren't bad (as long as you don't consider "many shovel snow" to include the big cities from DC through Boston).

JB picking on one of his favorite targets.....the ole GFS

" In the meantime, once again, major development several days out near the east coast, looks like it was not seen by the flagship of the US model fleet. Kind of hard to believe how many times this happens. But at the very least, you can watch for things like this and see if you can pick up the ones the model hits, and the ones it does not. As in most cases, it rarely scores the coup"

JB in a tweet today - not saying I believe him just sharing.....

" If ECMWF, UKMET, JMA and Canadian are correct (GFS stands alone as non-event) we will see how warm next week is in the Northeast...while many shovel snow"