ChescoWx

East Nantmeal Township

0.9" of snow

Steady snow here in NW Chesco with all surfaces covered temp at 28.2

Light snow for the last hour or so but nothing more than heavy flurries - very dry air

Temp 29.0 DP 18.0

3 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

 

I actually think the ZR risk is over modeled, when the ice in sandwiched with snow I notice that real world takes some of the ZR qpf and turns it into sleet. ZR only happens in absolutely perfect ZR condition... to warm and it LR to cold and its Sleet. Modeling has shifted away from the classical blowout ice storm analogs. I think '07 VD is a more likely situation than a '94 or even Feb '14 ice storm. Overall the drama of this storm is over exaggerated due to winter of snore feelings by us amateurs. I think it will be 4-6" in Pottstown with plenty of sleet and 8-12" up at Bear Creek. 

I think it is more like 3 or 4" followed by a quick transition to ZR but with only slightly below freezing temps and steady rain it will not accrete that impressively - just my 2 cents

Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with 18z data from NAM/GFS trended slightly colder as temps now only get as high as 33 degrees here is the rundown

Snow by 2pm Saturday S+ by 3pm mixing sleet by 4pm some heavy sleet through 6pm with 4" to 6" of snow/sleet accumulation before a turn to ZR which continues till 1130pm with another 0.90" falling as ZR - temps than rise to just above freezing thru 8am with 0.40" of rain and 0.5" of ice accreteion

before a mix with sleet and snow and then all snow by 9am with another 1" of snow before ending

Wxsim updated with 12z data remained nearly the same as the 6z GFS/NAM for NW Chesco (similar temps/less precip - added a little snow at end)

S+ by 3pm Saturday with Heavy IP by 6pm - total snow/sleet 3" to 4" - Temps stay below freezing till near midnight with 1.36" falling as frozen. Than another inch or so of rain before changing to snow before ending

Still thinking south folks like me will not do as well as those further north and of course west like Steve etc.

Latest Wxsim with 6z data shows snow by 9pm tonight with 2.0" before ending by 6am tomorrow. Then Snow arrives Saturday afternoon becoming moderate to heavy becoming heavy sleet by 6pm with 3.0" to 5.0" of Snow/IP before changing to ZR by 9:30pm - ZR till midnight with 0.40" falling as ZR. Then temps warm above freezing at midnight with heavy rain falling through 9am with another 1.70" of rain before ending around 9am Sunday morning

This really looks like one of those January 1994 Ice storms. Areas further southeast like NW Chesco and KOP were deep into the ZR while areas just 25 miles west and north were snow. I think the 12z Euro means paint this scenario very well and would not be surprised to see something like this....but of course it can and will change before Saturday eve.

2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

any chance you can tell me what it says about the LV? With the mid-levels screaming torch in the Euro, I am real interested to see how much freezing rain/snow. Thanks

Unfortunately it is just an IMBY model that simply combines the GFS and NAM for my exact location....check out their website - they can customize for you

12z NAM is basically just faster but it does have 0c down through DC - looks like nice front end thump - but would imagine with this quicker movement it will have lower qpf than earlier runs...

With the 6z models coming in colder the Wxsim is now reflecting this - so after 2 or 3" of snow tomorrow night. It has S+ arriving Saturday by 6pm transitioning to a period of heavy sleet with 3" to 4" of snow/ip accumulation before a change to ZR with 1.18" falling as frozen before a change to all rain by 2am. Then another 1.60" of rain with temps at about 34-35 degrees before a change back to sleet and then snow before ending. Wxsim also shows more heavy snow arriving Tuesday night into Wed AM with the early potential of several more inches of snow.

Latest Wxsim with 12z data up to 3" of snow by Friday AM in NW Chesco. Regarding weekend storm 

Has a brief period of snow arriving by 4pm Saturday quickly going to moderate sleet and than ZR with about 1.00" falling as frozen before temps rise above 0c around midnight. Than Heavy rain with another 1.40" falling with temps rising to 38 by 7am Sunday wind shifts to NW by 9am and temp fall below freezing by early PM.

I see Hurricane Schwartz just tweeted a severe cold and stormy pattern is now likely from late January through February - I for one remain confident that everyone on here will finish with above normal snow this year....heck I am only about 1" below normal through today

Latest Wxsim has 2" of snow for NW Chester County by Friday AM 

Weekend event has heavy snow arriving by 5pm with a quick transition to a heavy sleet/snow and then to ZR mix - with 1.03" falling by midnight with temps just below freezing. Temps than rise to the mid-30's with heavy rain thru Sunday AM with another 1.30" of rain falling. Rain ends as temps plummet during the PM from a high of 37 at 10am to 12 degrees by midnight

Wxsim now has 2 to 3" of snow across NW Chesco by Friday AM before the big storm hits over the weekend. 

It has Snow arriving and becoming heavy Saturday Evening with up to 3" of snow/ip by 9pm - then another 0.30" of ZR falling between 9pm an midnight. 

Then heavy rain from midnight through early PM Saturday with up to 2.00" of rain then a transition from rain to sleet to heavy snow by 9pm with another 3" of snow falling before ending on early Monday AM.

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Lots of tracking and opportunities coming over the next 14 days. Just to be a devil's advocate the 6z fv3 is a good example of how i95 could essentially fail during this good pattern. Lots of sleet and rain with minimal snow other than light stuff or wraparound variety. Likely is wrong but worth noting that these epic looking patterns dont always produce for the big cities but can favor NW areas quite a bit. Again likely wrong but I am mentioning this to keep expectations in check. Not everything that looks good on paper plays out exactly as hoped. With that said I am still hopeful and cautiously optimistic moving forward. 

Agreed - there will be big swings on the 2nd event this weekend. I suspect that one will cut to the west with a secondary popping somewhere along the mid-atlantic coast - how far south that forms will hold the key for how much is white vs wet

Wxsim has 2 snow events this week for NW Chesco - 1st up in Thursday night into Friday AM with 2.0" of snow - then snow arriving on Saturday early evening continuing through midday on Sunday with 12.0" of snow before ending.

NWS already has a 70% chance of snow on Saturday night....

So far 2.0" of snow here in East Nantmeal current temp 26.6 - as we wait and see if any additional snow will creep it's way back NW later today.

also looks like several inches down the shore in Sea Isle City and still coming down at a pretty good clip

East Nantmeal Twp Chester County Pa

Snow so far 1.8" (1.0') since midnight

Light snow continues temp 25.2

11pm Obs: Steady light snow continues here in East Nantmeal Twp in NW Chesco so far 0.8" of snow

Temp 26.1

DP 23.3

26 minutes ago, Newman said:

Mount Holly upped their high end map

Hello Newman!! I don't get this - no change to their forecast map but a big shift up in their 10% high end map - strange in my mind

Nothing I am seeing on radar etc. has me thinking this is anything more than a 1" to 3" event across most of Chester County with the best potential of over 3" across SW Chesco. Still thinking the top end at my location is just under 2" 

All surfaces covered here in NW Chesco with visibility down to 1 mi at both KMQS and here 

18z Wxsim has light snow off and on through 7pm tomorrow night with 3.3" of total snow here in NW Chester County PA

Some very light flakage in East Nantmeal in NW Chesco temp 30.5  DP up to 15.4