ChescoWx

East Nantmeal Twp

Cloudy 31.3 DP 9.8

15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM IS A CRUSHER NEXT WEEKEND! BIG DOG BABY southeast of GFS

Circuit board crasher in 3...2...1

 

 

 

yep - 10 day models - no doubt that will verify - LOL!!

11 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Looks like the Euro has 1"-2" for me. I'll gladly take since my expectations have been set at virga.

I expect a lot of virga before any snow.....may be tough to watch the further north in PA you are....

The latest Wxsim run with 12z (NAM/GFS) data of course has bumped up totals thanks to the bogus NAM run - now has 1.5" of snow by 7am tomorrow with snow increasing in intensity later tomorrow PM with 3.0" by 4pm - 5.0" at 9pm and ending up with 6.8" of snow by 1am Monday morning. This will correct with the 18z runs

SREFS are up to a mean of 5" at PTW....while that is hogwash - I would expect the NAM to come north a bit at 12z

Latest Wxsim with 06z data from GFS/NAM continues to paint 2.3" of snow for NW Chesco - snow begins by 8pm and is all over by 11am Sunday AM 

Our AM Low today was 17.9 - our coldest AM reading since the 13.8 low on the 23rd of November

Local Wxsim model for NW Chester County PA has flurries late PM tomorrow with Light snow by 9pm with 1" of snow by 3am and another 1.3" before ending at 9am for a total of 2.3" - more toward Southern Chester County and South Jersey.

Currently Clear 25.1 with a DP of 9.8 degrees

JB still thinks the snow stays together better right to the coast and north a bit. He thinks 3" to 6" from MDT to ACY with 4" to 8" south of there through DCA

14 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

How can you have a 15hr event w/some mod snow and only end up with 1.5 - 2"???

Easy moderate snow for only 1 or 2 hours and light snow the rest of the time -

Latest Wxsim program continues to show a light snow event for the NW Chester County PA area of East Nantmeal Township. Currently it looks like light snow arrives by 6pm on Sat eve. with moderate snow by midnight with it all over by 9am Sunday morning with between 1.5" to 2.0" of snow

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Was thinking earlier how I personally categorize winter storms...plus I'm bored. For me there are the nuisance c-2" types followed by 2-7". Next bar is 7-14". Then the rare stuff 14-24" .... and the creme de la creme 24"+

I guess when I'm tracking that's how I break them down in my own mind. The c-2 is like cool it's going to snow but not really worth me getting overly excited over or losing sleep. Then the 2-7" the interest level is there but again I'm not running out for milk and bread and getting all googly eyed like Gritty. Some sleep may be lost to model watching but not much. Whether a 2-4/3-6/4-7 they all generally feel the same for me. Gotta shovel but not worth putting unnecessary energy into.

Things improve significantly when we enter MECS range which for me is 7-14"....again there isnt a whole lots of diff between whether I pull the snowblower out for the bottom or top of that range. The impact and personal reward is basically the same and well worth the hours of tracking and energy put in.

14-24" of HECS is a dream but again I dont dwell on whether its low end or high end of that range. It's a general categorical range that is not very often seen so I just savor the heck out of it. Much sleep is lost to tracking especially as lead times shrink.

Then the 24"+ BECS there really just isnt words for. Alot of coffee is consumed sometimes alot of booze and sleep deprivation is real. My wife has used the term 'deliriously snow-drunk' before.

Guess my point to this is I dont get all caught up in the over analyzing (especially with lower total ranges) between whether one model shows 1-3" but the other shows 2-4" etc. Just like if a model showed 6-10" vs 8-12". I crack up when seeing posts analyzing every fraction of an inch difference. In the grand scheme do those nuances really make a world of difference (for Joe public not pro forecasters)? Maybe they do and I'm the oddball lol....I wont debate that. 

So does anyone else categorize their forecast snow amounts any similar to this? Ie base them on impacts?

Steve that's a good list - for me my interest is high for anything over 4" which in this area I consider "plowable"

Anything over 6" is Significant

Over 10" is Major 

But any snow is good snow to track in my opinion....

Euro Kuchera get the 2" line up to Central Chester County PA....

JB holding to the end - as always his North bias is a weakness which I think he knows he has but can't help it

As far as the storm, no changes, as always I wait for it to get into the plains to change ideas as I see too many of these go all over the place and if I am to bust, would rather just bust once. But the explanation on this a couple of days ago with the northern snow coming out still looks good to me, That tends to hold together with 20 to 30 to 1 ratio near -8C While its going to be a nice storm from St Louis to the Delmarva ( I think) the real value of it to me is it is a sign of the times.. and that time is for it get cold and stay cold with repetitive snow threats evolving along with stronger cold shots

To provide hope to snow weenies everywhere here is JB at WB's latest thoughts....He is correct about the false idol that is the GFS at 4 days out - happens all the time...not saying I agree with him - but if the Euro goes south at 12z then there should be concern

The GFS is likely getting into its handoff to quick to the northern branch mode it likes to get into 4 days out, So we see it collapsing heights over the lakes and Ohio Valley at 84 hours.) or handing off to the northern branch) This looks to be an error to me, but perhaps this is the time it is right, But there are no changes in my thinking right now I think the Euro/NAM blend will be the best way to proceed going forward and there is no change in our ideas on the storm this weekend, I don't think this is a big deal for NYC ( 2-4) and think its 4-8 around DC for instance. Quite frankly this map shows what I think is coming, more or less, Euro 72 hour snow totals ending Monday morning There are some edge considerations but I dont expect a shift north to the experimental GFS at 06z But I dont think there is that much suppression either

12z models so far....going wrong direction unless you buy the Para...will wait for King Euro before concern - however a very sharp N to S gradient - best spots SJ and DE

Early thoughts - I am liking the Euro and suspect some of the 12z runs come north a bit. So early call is 3" to 5" from Southern Chester County across to ACY - with 2" to 4" from N to S from I76 north toward ABE

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Lol and like that all guidance takes a seat on the toilet and drops a big deuce with steps back and a much more sheared out look. The back and forth from run to run this year have been nothing short of breathtaking.  I mean, we get 90% of guidance in one suite saying game on in a big way....then next suite the 90% say game off......then back to game on, etc. I will say this....the Euro hasnt and often doesnt make these flips from run to run and is generally the most consistent. 

On to the next threat or are we still holding out hope for a N trend and a SECS here?

no way - keep an eye on this - nice changes on the 12z NAM....for the 1st time in a long time the right ingredients are present....now will it deliver?? who knows but certainly no time to stop watching till at least 0z on the 10th IMHO

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's over apparently double negative fro. Newman and DT who says Richmond South sharp cutoff North of there.

DT such a calm guy! He banned me from following him on Twitter due to my political leanings.....nice

A mix of light IP and snow has just started in East Nantmeal temp 31.0 DP 15.5

My Wxsim with 6z data has snow arriving Saturday eve continuing through much of Sunday with 9" to 12" of snow accumulating in NW Chesco....this will of course change

38 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Man, just realized it's approaching almost 2 months since our Nov snowstorm. Boy, we really pissed away some valuable snow potential days with nothing to show and still nothing definite looking into the future. 

Nah - multiple snow chances and increasing cold on most modeling today....to your point nothing definative and of course it never is with weather - but no change to my views on the coming cold and snow! 

JB with Weatherbell saying all the players are now on the field that may lead to one of the all-time greatest comeback winters.....now whether that is reality or not.....like I said stay tuned

With our 0.16" of rain since midnight and 0.42" since yesterday we are for a rarity....below normal rainfall for the month and YTD at only 0.44" vs our normal here in Chester County of 0.53". Of greater interest to the winter weather weenies on our forum is the fact that for the 1st time this winter season we are below normal for snowfall. Through today here in NW Chester County PA we are at 7.3" of snow for the season with a normal of 7.5" through today.

0.29" of rain since last evening here in East Nantmeal

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Are they even going to sign any big name players or are they holding out for Trout in 2020?

Steve - so far it has been a great off season IMHO - they have significantly upgraded at 3 of the 8 positions and a big addition to the Bullpen. LF with McCutchen; SS with Segura; 1B with Hoskins and Robertson for the back end of the pen. Now even without any other signings I believe they are now an above .500 team for the 1st time since the glory years of 2007-12. Regarding the big signings....I mean what Philly team has ever committed to spending "stupid money" to make the team better than the Phils? I have never believed they would sign either Harper or Machado....but that is certainly no fault of the Phillies. They will overpay with offers for both players....but may lose out as it has nothing to do with the Phillies willingness to spend and improve the team. If Machado wants to be a Yankee and Harper a Dodger they will not get either player...no matter how much they overpay Now some philly fans that don't understand the dynamic of baseball may say the Phils failed....and that will be the vast majority of the Philly sports fan view. I like many will be disappointed that they do not sign either one of these players....but I will not fault the Phils. They are doing all they can to get better....an I think they will be better in 2019 either way. Keep the faith!!