From LWX
KEY MESSAGE 3... Wintry precipitation threats are possible early
next week.
Following a dry weekend, shortwave troughing pivoting to the north
will push a surface cold front across the region on Monday. As the
trough pivots over the Great Lakes towards the Northeast, moisture
originating from the Pacific approaches the area. With the event
being toward the end of the forecast period, there remains a good
deal of spread within the model guidance. While global guidance
agrees on precipitation during the day, the discrepancies are with
precipitation type. Marginal temperatures in the 30s during the day
will drop into the mid to upper 20s overnight. The 00z GFS has snow
staying along the MD/PA border with those farther south getting a
mix of sleet/snow. The 00z ECMWF/Canadian has primarily snow across
the area. Chances for a winter weather event remain low given the
model discrepancies, but will certainly continue to monitor in
subsequent forecast shifts.