Thinking 1-3, but wouldn’t be shocked it were closer to 1-2.
Hopefully this organizes because it looks messy on radar. Models say it should, but something to watch.
Definitely seems to be some model jumpiness with this one. The NAM has some strong fronto moving in during the aftn and the soundings are a little unstable near the top of the saturated layer so it may have some surprises.
It's sort of elongated though, not wrapped up to give the prolonged heavy rates and wind. But that's what you'll need to see if you want any chance. Like Will said, I'd like for other guidance to move that way.
Might have to watch that low off the SE coast too. If that intensifies a bit, it might shift the baroclinic zone SE a tad. You'll also want to see if the heights across SE Canada are lower (aids in a bit more confluence). The 12z GEFS did do that compared to 00z.