Meanwhile Euro op has a weak pike south system on Tuesday night next week and then a SWFE for near the MA/VT/NH border north a few days later. Much weaker than 00z.
I also don't have an issue with the initial larger event (like the one on the GFS for 2/23) to be messy. It's sort of the transition type event where I can envision that.
I've never seen op runs swing some (who should know by now) in so many directions. I know society in general is becoming more stupid with time...but I thought this board was better.
Given the PNA, I'm not buying the suppressed look. I'd side towards the GFS...but based on the ensembles...not quite as cutter-ish maybe?
I could see a messy event though. Would sort of fit the look.
Edit: Will said something similar too.
Here is evil pope. Can always tell when he posts. I start to hear this chant music play, with lights flashing, glass shattering, and me being violently thrown against the wall and ceiling.
All of our "cold" periods have been in phases not typical of our classic MJO thoughts. The cold has been 3-4-5 towards maritime continent. Indeed we have another wave doing that. Also note the 850mb easterlies are dying. No longer a standing Nina wave as you can see. So perhaps as this goes to 180 on east..we can actually sustain some cold.
I was just thinking that from a cold point of view, I like seeing that part of the vortex split south into Hudson Bay. Anyways yeah, hopefully maybe it leads to a more sustained -NAO.
Op runs gonna op runs. But, ensembles still look pretty good. Euro op still shows the chance of some of these needing a little too close for comfort……but you get the idea.