CoastalWx

I know what you mean by NW bias, but I think it does well overall with the warm intrusions. For instance I don’t notice a NW bias when it shows this….maybe if anything is actually depicts the surface low as it should….following the path of least resistance near coast vs going inland. However, I’ve noticed that given similar low placements on guidance, it seems to handle warm air intrusions aloft better….800mb and above stuff. I think this is working out close to HRRR and other guidance that had snow start near CT coast from a good burst. However sleet like racing north so I’m not sure we see a big + bust? Unless you bought the nam haha.

9/10 times when everyone tosses the nam because it’s the warmest model, it is right. Doesn’t mean it will be all the time like today, but it does do well. Not sure today purely qualifies as the typical warm tongue type event though.

It does do well with that

Should be nice burst into metro west I think

Nam ftl

AWT

That highway may as well be called Interstate Phil when there is winter weather.

Euro actually has a period of -SN for central and eastern areas Sunday.

You really only at 100'??

Well I'm not 100% confident lol...but just my hunch. Maybe a dusting if you're good. Haha.

You also probably see minor accumulations. Hey it's a start.

I think you have the chance of seeing flakes.

I don't think anything changed. We definitely mentioned the caveats for SNE especially. NWS map earlier seemed ok. If anything might sneak some flakes into metro west.

GFS is a nice initial thump for CT into ORH area. It's all about rates as we said earlier, if you want to grab 1-2.

I suppose it could go nuclear...but as it stands now..I don't think it would suppress??

The problem is the Pacific starts to get a little unfavorable. So we'll need that to help nose in some colder air. I don't think that would suppress as it stands given the lower heights near BC. Probably more of some overrunning deals..maybe a clipper or even miller B if timed well.

It's more about the QPF depiction. It's all over the place.

I can't rule out flakes clipping the region, but a thread???

It isn’t a big storm, but euro hasn’t been good with it.

Yeah it’s close. But definitely don’t want to see that trough over the west coast of Canada get stronger. Let’s shift that blocking in Greenland further southwest.

Very meh solution on euro. That model is a mess.

Let’s go baby.

Logan still didn’t hit 32.

But it’s fake

27.9. We did it.