CoastalWx

I just have this nagging feeling that his latitude and longitude may not help much...but we'll see today,

Yeah that's just what I feel comfortable with now being this far out. It could definitely be higher. I think I would go higher if today came in steady state or colder obviously.

Yeah, one was a weaker signal, the other stronger.

A few days ago on the ensembles showed a couple of threats.

Euro looked sloppy there. Best dynamics N of you.

Should be 2-3 for you I think.

Take em up. All the way up. Unless it goes to shit today.

For Dave? If it's 0-1", absolutely.

Nam was still real warm.

Snow squalls of yore over SE MA And Cape.

Euro looked a little better and more dynamic…..pastes nrn ORH county and into SNH. Ticks for the marginal crew.

Legit squall. Probably gust to near 50. That must be over an inch in S Wey. Coating here.

Nam toast

Nice base builder for places like Berkshire east.

Truffle shuffle?

The pitchforks will be out lol. I guess my whole point is that I'm not sure I look at that and say '''yep..cutter." But, if it happened...I wouldn't be surprised maybe? Whatevs.

I mean..LOL.

Umm, for Foxboro??

My examples are to show the different types of solutions the EPS are showing. While a majority do not show cutters, I'd say a chunk show something that may not be pretty. So guidance sees something in that. If I had a gun to my head, I would say it is not a cutter pattern, but we know it doesn't preclude them.

I know Tblizz wants to shoot me when I say this, but I do like what I see overall going forward after Friday. Every good pattern has inherent risks. Cutters, whiffs....whatever. That's just how weather works.

Now lets look at H5 preceding hr 240. This is hr 210. So that Baffin Bay block helps in the first and last images. You can see the confluence there. However look at the middle image. The ridging out west is farther offshore. That causes a fuji dance type thing where the PV(or a piece of it anyways) in the middle image actually loops around back to the west in Saskatchewan and helps swing that trough around and into the GL region. Thus giving a cutter look. Anyways the point isn't to obsess that far out...just showing the chaotic flow.

Here are the clusters (think groups of solutions or clusters with similar ensemble members). Notice 41% have a pretty nice SWFE or redeveloper look. 33% have a mix to rain(cutterish?) look. The other 25% have a coastal look.

Yep, that will be part of what happens.

But, the flow is chaotic...like Will said, recall Friday was cutting to MSP last week. Just understand what the risks are. Personally, I welcome the cold dump into the CONUS and rid us of this stale airmass we have had.

What you need to watch are the key ridges below. That ridge folding over north of Canada and the west based -NAO are pinning that PV lobe into western Canada. The key is to maintain the ridge off the Pacific coast...closer to NAMR. That will prevent what the euro op did. However, there is a risk there should that ridge be more offshore.