CoastalWx

For proclaiming being in and up, boy has he gotten it in and up.

Ryan changed a 9 day forecast by 3F. WTF happened to this board?

Right, and I added that editorial to explain what was meant by that in case I was not clear.

I'm dumbfounded but ok: 1) Analyze the guidance/potential ----> This is what meteorologists and hobbyists do. 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. ---> This is to take into account the bias of models seeming to underplay the -PNA 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region ---> We have a better Canada/NATL region than what we have seen all winter. Fact not opinion. 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. ---> This is acknowledging that because of many moving parts, one should not fall in love with a particular solution this far out. 5) Avoid emotions. ---> You need to add more of this 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila. ---> Objectivity as in understanding all the variables and having a rationale discussion void of weenieism and vapid pessimism based on emotions. So how is that wishcasting?

People have gone mad.

What?? A dash more -PNA than what models are showing. That's realistic.

How many did you pop today?

I assume that's through hr 360? I can't really complain about that graphic.

A few degrees Saturday vs a 20 degree difference Friday.

Meanwhile NAM is gonna ruin some Friday forecasts I think, Same with HRRR.

That isn't showing blocking, that's straight up +NAO/AO.

The PNA area overall probably trends deeper shown with blue arrow. I also expect the SE ridge to flex shown in red arrow. Key areas to hold on are the 50/50 low area circled in blue, and ridging into Greenland and points west shown in red. Exact locations might be off a tad because of the projection of the image, but you get the idea. If these features trend worse, then all bets are off. Right now, I don't see anything showing that, other than typical model ebb and flows.

The magic recipe for threats beyond 5 days out. 1) Analyze the guidance/potential 2) Add a dash more of -PNA. 3) Mix in better Canada/NATL region 4) Realism/Skepticism because it is beyond 5 days out. 5) Avoid emotions. 6) Mix together and you have a tasty dish of objectivity. Voila.

HA, get a load of the HRRR Friday morning. Low 60s near LWM, ice for the Pope. Backdoor looking.

Meanwhile, beautiful day today except for the gales.

That was the only thing I saw too and that system was never a lock. I almost viewed it as gravy since it sort of snuck up.

Sort of, but this winter featured that, a strong Nino like jet out of nowhere, and lows diving into the Baja. This time, that's offset by Canada finally getting colder and with better confluence. But like Will said..in this transition time...you need things to break right. So a stronger system early to mid week next week would help with the next one a few days later.

Troughing also dug more SW off the PAC NW. We've seen that before too lol. But yeah that system you mentioned is key.

EPS is sort of strung out and you can tell the members must be all over the place in that Tues night through Thursday timeframe.

Meanwhile Euro op has a weak pike south system on Tuesday night next week and then a SWFE for near the MA/VT/NH border north a few days later. Much weaker than 00z.

I also don't have an issue with the initial larger event (like the one on the GFS for 2/23) to be messy. It's sort of the transition type event where I can envision that.

He's going to learn in a hard way what it was like growing up, The days of 12" storms growing on trees will come to an end.

I've never seen op runs swing some (who should know by now) in so many directions. I know society in general is becoming more stupid with time...but I thought this board was better.

Jerry coming off the crown high?

Given the PNA, I'm not buying the suppressed look. I'd side towards the GFS...but based on the ensembles...not quite as cutter-ish maybe? I could see a messy event though. Would sort of fit the look. Edit: Will said something similar too.