I guess we have to reiterate again that the -PNA is not going away. It’s not. In fact it may get stronger at times as we get closer and closer.
However, we need to watch Canada and the North Atlantic. That is the key to this gradient. Will it be over Caribou or Connecticut? That’s the key. As long as we maintain a semblance of a 50-50 low and a gradually improving NAO region, the chances increase for snowier scenarios as one moves south. If this does not materialize, than it’s probably just nuisance stuff for SNE and the gradient sets up further north.
It’s impossible to know right now….hell we don’t even know what will happen next week. As of now, I don’t see signs of things breaking down other than ebb and flows of guidance. What trended better last night might get a tad worse at 12z, but that’s the ebb and flow. As long as we don’t see major changes in models hold for like a 3 day period…….I’m not terribly concerned. Take it fwiw.