Same thing we saw in December. Ridge folds and helps pin any cold out west. Confluence to our north will barely be enough for cold here except for NNE.
This look is meh. Thanks for pinning winter out west -NAO. Only hope is that the confluence northeast of us is enough. Otherwise it’s probably more congrats NNE. Been my worry all along.
I think a narrow area could do well. But as you can see from hi res models, there is some disagreement where these bands set up. So it’s possible someone gets an inch of slop, and 10 miles away gets triple.