Big change in the EPO region in the 11-15 day. Not sure if it's trend worthy as it's one run, but definitely trying to cool off central and eastern US.
That's typically a great track on Euro guidance but of course the airmass is on fire prior. Kind of has that hang back look for moisture. Probably 3-6 or so verbatim around here.
Hasn't really mattered. You could argue weaker ENSO I guess for colder risks. You're best bet as someone who trades commodities like energy is to time the warm/cold spells during winter vs predicting HDDs for an entire winter.