We are which has hurt us, but it can and does get cold with lack of solar insolation.
I think in March is when you really see the dichotomy. Like 2010 and 2012. Lock in blow torch when snow is gone.
But we’ve seen all the cold locked up recently. We had cold in early December that gave the south shore snow with no snow cover in Canada so it can be done.
We’ve had Canada blow torched and managed plenty of snow and even nice events.
This year has not featured a decent plunge from north of Hudson Bay where the cold had been enough. We don’t need deep blues up there.
We just had a dry year last year. We also had some serious wet years 2000-2012 too. Hell even the 50s had wet years. I think there’s a little recent confirmation bias coming in.
I’m honestly lost when it comes to what to expect. Sure cold pushes can happen, but that -PNA modeled could be quite cold across the CONUS. I don’t think it will last, but it shows signs of lasting at least a week.
I honestly haven’t looked in like over a week.
But this season I feel like the MJO/CCKW stuff has had no problem zipping along. Haven’t seen a good stall in awhile.