We just had a dry year last year. We also had some serious wet years 2000-2012 too. Hell even the 50s had wet years. I think there’s a little recent confirmation bias coming in.
I’m honestly lost when it comes to what to expect. Sure cold pushes can happen, but that -PNA modeled could be quite cold across the CONUS. I don’t think it will last, but it shows signs of lasting at least a week.
I honestly haven’t looked in like over a week.
But this season I feel like the MJO/CCKW stuff has had no problem zipping along. Haven’t seen a good stall in awhile.
Who said the 20th? Steve? Didn’t many say the week after Christmas is when things start to change?
I will admit December has been uglier than I imagined and I did not imagine a good month.
I said if we are snowless on 1/15 and long range sucks, we punt. By then we’ll have an idea of Feb so I think it’s reasonable. I do think we’ll start to have some chances first week of January.