If you look at H7 RH/Temps/winds you can see by 12z Tuesday your death band is probably NW CT to ORH to Ray and just north. But man this is flying. Probably only get a few hours in the meat of it. Look at where it is at hr 90 and then again at hr 102.
Usually your best bet in these is where it first develops as it elongates and develops before it matures and pivots east. Could be quite the punch from 4a to 12p across the region.
I think a chunk of that was CF enhanced too. I'm not sure this happens like that as winds back quickly in this one vs hours of CF nakedness you had.
This system doesn't seem to have a sharpening/curling s/w...might even become more open with time. So if someone gets clocked, it's on the nrn edge of the s/w with it aligned WSW to ENE or so on the deformation axis.
I mentioned that earlier. Not explicitly about 850-700 but took that into consideration. Just based on how it looks and also my gut that says it will tick north. I'm well aware something more sheared and shunted south could happen.
Still hard to believe the amount of tree damage. To this day I don't quite get it. Only thing I can think of is a domino effect because entire swaths of forests were blown down. @amarshall can attest. He knows what I mean.
I think it may waste a few hours at least to go from a mix to wetbulb down to 32. But they'll have 6-8 hrs to stack up. However, will depend on track obviously.
Unless something catastrophic happens, this looks pasty. Looks like we waste a little to wetbulbing, but probably a wet snow until the last 3rd of the event or so. Hopefully I can break the two year streak of getting a 4”+ event.