CoastalWx

LOL. Yeah that sounds right. I’m hopeful with the ensemble look. That end of the EPS looks pretty darn strong out west with the ridging. Doesn’t look to break down anytime soon verbatim. Obvious that caveats apply, but that’s the first time I’ve felt somewhat optimistic in a long time. When you brought up that point about having a -NAO with a workable Pacific, but a terrible WPO….I literally had chills. I remember specifically looking at the models and I remember bringing up the point about I could see that Bering Sea trough fuck up and break down the temporary decent Pacific. Sure enough that happened. Ugh. I want to vomit now.

Yep

It’s really marginal at 925 in many areas of New England. So elevation would be key.

18z GFS

That airmass will be tough to work with next week around these parts until maybe the very end. Or, it just goes nuclear offshore, but not sure that’s a likely solution.

Yeah can always get something zipping by to raise the holiday moods.

I think after whatever happens next week, my gut says we stein for several days with the cold, and then wait until maybe after the 5th or so.

Let’s shut down 93.

Exactly

No later Feb

I can’t get mad at something looking worse from a few weenie progs over a week out in late November. All these solutions from flat to rain into Maine are on the table.

People have to remember not to lock in 7-10 days out.

AEMATT?

“GFS looks good so far..” AKA, Tobin looks good so far.

Canadian is amped. Cold rain for many.

It’s marginal at 925. Clowns may be too bullish.

Strung out look though.

Very marginal. But better deeper interior. Maybe it flashes over at the end.

3-4 weeks out is more right than wrong. People make big money trying to forecast that. Otherwise, there would be no work there. It’s not like batting .800 but there is skill there. The last two years it’s been way more right than wrong. But we had good MJO constructive interference. This one time we had destructive interference.

He thinks it’s the 1950s and we have no skill beyond day 2. We are examining caterpillars, sticking finger in the air, and judging clouds when we forecast.

The idea of December to start poorly is also supported currently by MJO. But that wave is weak and perhaps overpowered by other things going on in the Pacific. Either way, I hope we can take advantage of this.

Eh, we have skill there. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. It’s possible it’s delayed too which would stink.

Yep. I don’t think I had an event more than 3” last winter.

Temp is dropping and mix elevation seems to be near 700’ or so per KBOX CC.

Some models sink the -NAO south and squash things, but I’m not worrying about that now. That ridge position out west is not a suppression look so maybe once the ridge in the Davis Straits weakens that may help? In any case, for early in the season I can’t complain about this look. Of course expectations in check.