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CoastalWx

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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. CoastalWx
    However, it had one of the worst performances I've ever seen in the last event.
  2. CoastalWx
    RPM is meant more for near term. inside 36 hrs.
  3. CoastalWx
    I think the mesos like 3K NAM, HRRR, and maybe RGEM explicitly predict snow. That said, I still find some of the output a bit strange at times.
  4. CoastalWx
    Yeah if one were to believe the 3K NAM, it would melt the hydro meteors, but it's a large area of sub 32F area that it falls through again. I agree, seems like maybe the area in srn CT and RI just inland may get decent icing.
  5. CoastalWx
    That's fine. I'd take 2" and run. Would be nice for the incoming cold.
  6. CoastalWx
    NAM looks similar to 6z, but better on the front end. Definitely still congrats chickens.
  7. CoastalWx
    It doesn't look like a sleet setup, it looks more realistic based on 925mb temps. The storm sort of wraps in some warmer air, before it washes out and cools off in the comma head.
  8. CoastalWx
    That's way more realistic.
  9. CoastalWx
    I only mentioned that because it can be confusing. Usually a strong s/w may have a high PV intrusion by nature. You can also get PV by strong latent heat from convection. If you were to look at a cross section from the infamous 12/9/05 storm, you had strong stratospheric intrusion of PV aloft and at the surface from latent heat. Without getting too complicated, both acted to lower heights ahead of it and induce rapid cyclogenesis. I'm definitely not well versed in the topic, but that's the basic idea.
  10. CoastalWx
    I know sometimes for convection if you're looking for something subtle to get lift going, or in the tropics when the steering currents are tough to visualize, it helps. Any good sites for that? I usually have a couple of ones that I normally look at.
  11. CoastalWx
    You can think of it as a strong s/w too. Usually they can be co-located together. I don't find PV to be a game changer, but it's just another cool way at viewing things.
  12. CoastalWx
    I did the same. Comparing it to 12z yesterday valid 6z Tuesday, noticeable difference. 6z euro is almost congrats to those who never get congrats in these. LOL. I still have the north bounces in my mind, but maybe this is one of the examples where that rule may not work out.
  13. CoastalWx
    6Z Euro is rather suppressed. Actually has decent mid levels to the pike.
  14. CoastalWx
    EPS mean doesn't seem as enthused, but some sort of a signal.
  15. CoastalWx
    BOX map looks good for now. Could see more ticks north last minute and there is model uncertainty, so I'd roll with that. Might have to watch tail end of storm for some extended -SN Tuesday evening.
  16. CoastalWx
    It’s a little warm below 850 in many areas. Those snow algorithms at it again.
  17. CoastalWx
    LOL. That model had me sipping pina colada’s at 18z.
  18. CoastalWx
    Mixing out
  19. CoastalWx
    It’s definitely cooling off. Wind is gusting.
  20. CoastalWx
    Shorts and t shirts today. Was nice to be honest. Still pina coladas out there.
  21. CoastalWx
    Give ‘em a call and tell them what’s up.
  22. CoastalWx
    Usually it’s the RPM driving these into Montreal.
  23. CoastalWx
    Absolutely all out defecation.
  24. CoastalWx
    LOL NAM.
  25. CoastalWx
    PAC still meh so not sure suppression is a worry Christmas and beyond. That storm on 22 or whenever may be offshore.
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